BitMart Research Weekly: Hawkish Fed Expectations Intensify, Crypto Market Remains Under Pressure, RWA Sector Bucks the Trend
- Key Takeaway: Last week's U.S. macroeconomic data showed high interest rates suppressing demand. The Fed held rates steady while hawkish expectations strengthened; the crypto market saw broad declines, with BTC underperforming ETH, market sentiment remaining in extreme fear, continuous ETF outflows, stablecoin total supply stabilizing but showing structural divergence, and STRC's persistent discount highlighting increased financing pressure for Strategy.
- Key Elements:
- Divergent U.S. economic structure: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts fell to 1.177 million units, but consumption remains supported by employment resilience (initial jobless claims at 226,000). High interest rates are suppressing aggregate demand.
- The Fed held the interest rate steady at 3.75%. Nine of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike this year, while only one anticipates a cut. New Chair Warsh changed communication style, emphasizing "first principles," increasing policy uncertainty.
- Broad crypto market decline: BTC fell 3.7% week-over-week to the $62,000-$65,000 range; ETH dropped 1.2% to around $1,700. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 20. XLM was an outlier, rising 12.2% driven by the RWA tokenization narrative.
- Continued net outflows from ETFs: U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw a net weekly outflow of $226.8 million, while ETH spot ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $10 million. Institutions have not yet resumed sustained buying.
- Stablecoin total supply stabilized at $315.3 billion (+0.09% over 7 days). Compliant stablecoins like USD1 and USDG grew 9.27% and 6.74% respectively, while the ecosystem-based USDS decreased by 3.47%, indicating a preference for high-certainty dollar instruments.
- STRC has traded below par for five consecutive weeks, priced around $88 with a dividend yield rising to 11.5%. Strategy sold 32 BTC in May for the first time to cover preferred share distributions, facing triple-path pressure from raising dividends or weakening its narrative.
1. Macroeconomic and Traditional Financial Markets
1. Highly Divergent U.S. Stock Market: Signals of Slowing Growth and Middle East Uncertainty Intertwine
U.S. stock performance was highly divergent last week. The S&P 500 edged down 0.22%, the Nasdaq rose 0.27%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.39%. Macroeconomic data continues to weaken: the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts dropped sharply to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales grew 0.4% month-over-month. Overall, this indicates that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually suppressing aggregate demand.
The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000 and the four-week moving average slightly rising to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The structural divergence of resilient consumption alongside a weakening real estate and manufacturing sector complicates the Fed's policy path, as the pace of economic cooling is insufficient to quickly drive inflation lower.
2. Fed Holds Rates Steady, Half of Officials Anticipate Rate Hikes This Year, Warsh's Communication Style Shift
The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. Among the 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 of those expecting more than one hike. Only one official expects a rate cut this year, and one official did not submit Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) submissions. The Philadelphia Fed's "Prices Paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further reinforcing the hawkish stance.
New Chair Warsh adopted a different communication style than his predecessor, frequently mentioning "first principles," "alternative frameworks," and "terms of reference." He was the only official in the dot plot who declined to submit future rate projections, emphasizing that the Fed's core focus is achieving price stability. This FOMC statement was almost entirely rewritten and significantly shortened, increasing market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future communication and policy path.
2. Crypto Market
1. Market Overview: BTC Underperforms ETH, Market Sentiment Remains in Extreme Fear
BTC fell 3.7% last week, oscillating in the $62,000 – $65,000 range; ETH dropped 1.2%, holding around $1,700. Due to BTC's significant underperformance relative to ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio declined by 1.6%. Total crypto market capitalization fell 3.1%. Excluding BTC and ETH, market cap decreased 2.3%, and the altcoin market (excluding the top 10 tokens) declined 3.0%, presenting a clear pattern of broad-based declines.
The average decline among the top 30 crypto assets was 2.5%, with only XLM posting a notable gain of 12.2%, driven by Stellar's roadmap in RWA tokenization, payments, and corporate settlements. Market sentiment remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone, with the Fear & Greed Index holding at 20. Additionally, one of the largest MEV sandwich bots on Ethereum, jaredfromsubway.eth, suffered a reverse attack, losing approximately $7.5 million, reigniting market attention on on-chain security risks.
2. ETF Flows: BTC Net Outflow of $226.8 Million, Institutional Purchases Not Yet Resumed
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $226.8 million last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $10 million. Breaking it down by trading day, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $64.09 million on June 15, a minor net inflow of about $10.06 million on June 16, and net outflows of approximately $82.16 million and $90.66 million on June 17 and June 18, respectively. The U.S. market was closed on June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday.
For ETH ETFs, there were still minor net inflows on June 15 and 16, but this reversed to net outflows from June 17 to 18, making the weekly total close to a minor outflow. Overall, the pressure eased compared to the large outflows of the previous week, but institutional capital has not yet resumed consistent buying.
3. On-Chain Data: Stablecoin Supply Stabilizes, Structural Divergence Appears
According to DeFiLlama data, as of June 22, the total market capitalization of stablecoins stands at approximately $315.3 billion, increasing by about $287 million over 7 days (a rise of roughly 0.09%). USDT's market share is about 59.05%. USDT saw a slight 7-day decrease of about 0.12%, while USDC saw a minor increase of about 0.06%, indicating overall stability in mainstream settlement funds. USDS decreased by about 3.47% over 7 days, continuing the trend of ecosystem stablecoins being more prone to contraction in volatile environments.
USD1 and USDG grew by approximately 9.27% and 6.74%, respectively, reflecting the continued expansion of compliance-oriented stablecoins and channel-type distribution networks. USDe was roughly flat over 7 days, suggesting the expansion pace of yield-bearing stablecoins has slowed but without significant redemptions. BUIDL and USYC maintained modest growth, indicating resilient institutional demand for on-chain cash management products. Overall, the stablecoin market has shifted from contraction in the previous week to stabilization with structural divergence, though capital still favors high-certainty dollar-denominated instruments.
4. Industry Narrative: STRC Below Par for Fifth Consecutive Week, Strategy's Financing Flywheel Under Pressure
STRC has traded below its par value for the fifth consecutive week. The price briefly dipped to around $82 before recovering to approximately $88, but weekly trading volume still reached $1.6 billion. The nominal dividend yield has now risen to 11.5%, with market discussions on whether it will be further increased to 11.75% or 12%. Notably, Strategy, which once claimed it would "never sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May, raising roughly $2.5 million to pay preferred stock distributions.
Strategy currently faces three potential paths: increasing the STRC dividend rate (every 0.5% increase adds approximately $52.45 million in annual additional dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would weaken the core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally elevate the dividend burden over the long term. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of total Bitcoin treasury preferred securities volume, down from 80% the previous week. The second most traded instrument was Strive's SATA, representing 15.8%.
This article is a market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.
