The second front of the World Cup is in the prediction market

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Following the kickoff of the 2026 World Cup, prediction markets have rapidly become the hottest topic in the crypto industry.

On one hand, the World Cup itself commands the largest global sports audience; on the other hand, prediction markets, which have developed rapidly over the past two years, have finally found their perfect stage. Match results, progression scenarios, championship winners, Golden Boot contenders – almost every topic can be transformed into a tradable market.

The excitement quickly reflected in the data. In the first week of the World Cup, the notional sports trading volume in prediction markets reached $7.18 billion, setting a new all-time high. It might only be a matter of time before weekly sports volume breaks the $10 billion mark. Amid this World Cup frenzy, Polymarket, Kalshi, and predict.fun have emerged as the three most closely watched prediction platforms.

Polymarket's Moat is Higher than Imagined

The impact of the World Cup on Polymarket is most evident in its revenue. According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue yesterday reached $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid's $814,900.

Polymarket's 24-hour revenue surpasses Hyperliquid

Polymarket didn't rely on "throwing money" to attract users to participate in World Cup predictions. During the World Cup, the platform launched only a $1 million liquidity reward program, focusing on improving market depth rather than directly stimulating user trading with high-value prize pools.

In terms of market depth, since the World Cup kicked off, the cumulative trading volume for World Cup-related events on Polymarket has exceeded $1.7 billion, with over $63 million traded in the past 24 hours. Additionally, Polymarket has expanded its sports partnerships around the World Cup, including connections with football channels and events like OneFootball and Liga MX, further embedding prediction markets into fan content scenarios.

This also indicates that Polymarket's moat might be higher than outsiders imagine. When a global event like the World Cup arrives, the first reaction for on-chain users wanting to participate in related predictions is to go to Polymarket. Polymarket's advantage isn't just "offering odds"; it has become the default choice for on-chain users to predict various events.

Kalshi Benefits from Regulatory Clarity and Sports Tailwinds

If Polymarket is the first stop for on-chain users in World Cup predictions, then Kalshi's advantage stems from its expansion into sports trading within the US regulatory framework.

Before the World Cup, the CFTC released clearer regulatory signals regarding event contracts. Based on the proposal content, the signals from the CFTC were relatively positive – most prediction events centered on overall sports match results might still secure clear compliant space. The CFTC preliminarily believes that markets revolving around overall match outcomes, such as win/loss, score, point spread, progression results, overall team or player stats, and season performance, may still be considered event contracts with price discovery functions and informational value. What regulators are more likely to focus on are markets related to player injuries, referee decisions, single actions, etc., which are more susceptible to manipulation, insider trading, or perverse incentives.

This is crucial for Kalshi. Kalshi itself is a platform regulated by the CFTC, and sports are one of its most important sources of trading volume. Analysis from Pew Research shows that since July 2024, sports trading has accounted for approximately 80% of Kalshi's total volume. In other words, as long as sports prediction markets gain clearer space within the compliance framework, Kalshi will be one of the most direct beneficiaries.

Data from this World Cup confirms this. As the tournament began, Kalshi's sports trading volume expanded significantly, with daily notional sports trading volume reaching $1.09 billion, exceeding $1 billion for two consecutive days. In comparison, Polymarket's single-day sports notional volume during the same period was $350 million. This means that during this peak window of sports trading related to the World Cup, Kalshi has already established a clear lead in daily volume.

Kalshi's sports trading volume exceeds $1 billion for two consecutive days

Therefore, Kalshi is benefiting not just from the World Cup tailwinds, but also from regulatory clarity. The World Cup pushed sports prediction markets into the spotlight, while the CFTC's regulatory discussions provided Kalshi with a more defined narrative. While Polymarket represents the go-to on-chain prediction market, Kalshi is proving that compliant sports prediction markets can also achieve extremely high trading intensity.

predict.fun's Variable: The Binance Gateway

Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun's main highlights for this World Cup are, firstly, its frequent integration with the Binance ecosystem, and secondly, using the highest World Cup cash prize pool among current prediction platforms to amplify event excitement.

During the World Cup, predict.fun launched the "Predict Cup" campaign for the 2026 World Cup, with a total prize pool of $2 million, the highest World Cup-specific reward among top prediction platforms. Compared to the $1 million campaigns from Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun has clearly raised the incentive level significantly.

From a design perspective, predict.fun isn't just offering a single championship prediction; it has structured the World Cup as a 39-day points competition. The campaign covers 48 teams and 104 matches. Users can select up to 5 supported teams and accumulate Fan Points by participating in markets for match results, scores, goals, etc., competing for rewards based on stage-based leaderboards.

Rewards are spread throughout the tournament. Each group stage group offers a $70,000 prize pool, while knockout stage phases have their own rewards, with the final prize pool reaching $260,000. This means users aren't just betting on one outcome; they can continuously engage around their supported teams.

predict.fun launches the 2026 World Cup prediction campaign with a total prize pool of $2 million

More importantly, this campaign was integrated into the Binance gateway.

According to the official announcement, Binance Wallet now supports users participating in the $2 million PREDICT CUP campaign, provided and operated by predict.fun, directly through the Binance App interface. Users can select supported teams within the Binance App, participate in related prediction markets, earn Fan Points according to the rules, and improve their team ranking. Additionally, eligible users who participate in related markets through the Binance prediction market during the campaign and complete valid locks have a chance to share an additional 3 million Predict Points rewards.

The World Cup provides event excitement, Binance supplies gateway traffic, and the $2 million prize pool plus the 3 million Points rewards further lower the barrier for new users to try (Binance Wallet also has a separate $300,000 trading competition). The combination of these three factors allowed predict.fun to gain an exposure gateway close to an exchange level within just days of the World Cup starting. Just three days into the World Cup, predict.fun had 20,000 daily active users and over 180,000 daily transactions.

predict.fun daily active users and daily transaction count

World Cup Traffic Ushers Prediction Markets into a New Phase

Less than a week into the World Cup, prediction markets have already delivered results exceeding expectations. Whether it's trading volume, platform revenue, or user engagement, records are being broken continuously.

Polymarket leveraged the World Cup to prove its user mindshare and liquidity advantages as a leading platform; Kalshi, benefiting from clearer regulatory expectations, pushed compliant sports prediction markets to a new scale; and predict.fun, through the Binance ecosystem gateway and high incentives, achieved exposure and user growth far beyond normal levels.

Although their paths differ, all three platforms illustrate the same point: the World Cup brings not just traffic, but genuine trading demand. For prediction markets, sports have always been the most understandable, accessible, and high-frequency trading scenario. The World Cup, as one of the most globally watched sporting events, is amplifying this demand to an unprecedented scale.

As of now, most teams have only completed one group stage match. As progression scenarios become clearer and the knockout rounds approach, the importance of matches, market sentiment, and capital attention will all continue to increase. Whether in trading volume, user numbers, or market heat, prediction markets have the potential to continue breaking records in the coming weeks.

For prediction markets, the World Cup is not just a traffic explosion but an opportunity to prove their own value. And based on current data, this validation is just beginning.