The US-Iran Conflict Exceeds 100 Days; One of the Key Compromises Lies in Asset Unfreezing?

Original｜Odaily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser（@wenser 2010 ）

On June 10, the 103rd day since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war, negotiations between the US and Iran remain difficult and inconclusive.

Today, following Israel's strikes on Iran, US officials have reported that the United States has launched its third round of strikes against Iran, which quickly concluded. Behind this century-defining conflict, the key to a resolution lies not only in deeper issues like Iran's nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment materials, but also in a critical sticking point: U.S.-frozen Iranian assets totaling $24 billion, including approximately $1 billion in crypto assets.

Where do these assets come from? What do the crypto assets include? Can the US and Iran reach an agreement on this? These are the main questions explored in this article.

Trump's Absurd "Hot and Cold" Stance: A Coexistence of Toughness and Compromise

The key figure in determining whether the US-Iran conflict can end through negotiations is, naturally, U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Trump, a businessman-turned-politician, is particularly tactful and, compared to career politicians, focuses more on tangible interests. As a result, his public persona appears highly contradictory: on one hand, his statements oscillate between tough and conciliatory; on the other, he is adept at employing misdirection, using excuses like negotiations, reconciliation, or "a deal is imminent" to confuse Iran and the global media, thereby achieving goals such as "manipulating capital markets" and other less transparent objectives.

According to CNN reports, since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran on February 28, Trump has stated in public, on social media, or in phone interviews with reporters that a "US-Iran agreement is imminent" more than 30 times (Note from Odaily: some sources claim at least 37 times).

In light of this, Iran has no illusions about a "quick fix" in negotiations, instead conceptualizing them as a four-stage process.

On June 4, according to Iranian media Fars News, Iran outlined a four-stage plan for reaching an agreement with the United States:

• The first stage focuses on a comprehensive halt to military operations on all fronts, including Iran, the United States, and the Axis of Resistance;
• The second stage centers on implementing measures for four key issues, including: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting the blockade, removing oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing a portion of Iranian assets;
• The third stage will initiate broader negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues after objective and verifiable measures are implemented;
• The fourth stage involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee the implementation of the agreement and track compliance by all parties.

Previously, a ceasefire between the US and Iran had been achieved, but due to renewed Israeli attacks on Iran and the volatile situation in Lebanon, efforts in the first stage have been temporarily thwarted. The second stage is now the main sticking point in US-Iran negotiations.

The Specific Amount of Frozen Iranian Assets: Iran Claims $24 Billion, US Seized $1 Billion in Crypto Assets

Previously, according to CNN, a US official familiar with the negotiations stated that one of the remaining key sticking points in the US-Iran talks concerns economic compensation, as Trump is eager to secure a deal perceived as superior to the one achieved during the Obama administration.

The official stated that Iran has communicated to the mediators that, once a preliminary memorandum of understanding is reached, they expect to receive some form of economic compensation quickly, rather than having it deferred to a future date. However, officials in the Trump administration worry that unfreezing funds at such an early stage could alleviate the economic pressure on Iran—potentially eliminating or weakening a key leverage point Washington holds over Tehran. This leverage is considered crucial for the US to enter the second phase of negotiations, which will focus on the specifics of Iran's nuclear program. Trump has made it clear to his team that he wants any agreement to appear far tougher than the 2015 deal and to avoid any action that could be characterized as "delivering large sums of cash"—a phrase Trump used to criticize Obama's decision to provide economic relief to Iran.

On June 6, media reports indicated that a potential US-Iran agreement hinged on the US agreeing to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This amount was later confirmed by Iranian officials.

On the same day, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy for Legal and International Affairs at Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that upon signing any memorandum of understanding with the US, at least 50% of Iran's frozen financial assets must be unfrozen immediately. He added that the remaining funds should be "unfrozen within a limited period of one to two months following the signing of the agreement." Gharibabadi stated these assets belong to Iran and were "illegally frozen" by the US, and their unfreezing is a core requirement of any potential memorandum. He indicated that the remaining details of the mechanism for accessing the funds, including technical and financial arrangements, would be negotiated during the 60-day implementation period after the memorandum is signed.

However, this demand was firmly rejected by Trump, who stated he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions prematurely as part of any deal.

In late May, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in a Fox News interview that the US had seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets. Bessent stated that the action was part of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its network of proxies, and that the funds have been frozen. This includes approximately $344 million in USDT stablecoins frozen by stablecoin issuer Tether in April of this year, as well as other cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

He stated that before the U.S. Treasury intervened, the Iranian regime was siphoning off $400 to $500 million per month and distributing it among dozens of high-ranking officials. "We are working with allies across Europe to seize various villas, houses, and properties," Bessent explained. "And this money is essentially stolen from the Iranian people." According to an analysis by Bitcoin News, Bessent initially gave a figure of "close to $500 million" when he first disclosed this in late April, but the latest figure on May 29 has surpassed the $1 billion mark, indicating intensifying enforcement of the operation codenamed "Operation Economic Fury."

Interestingly, according to Wikipedia, the US previously seized a skyscraper owned by the Iranian government in Manhattan (valued at over $1 billion) and its accumulated rent (approximately $50 million).

Furthermore, according to the latest media reports, the US is considering using Iranian frozen assets to fund the reconstruction and repair of Gulf states affected by the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Sources familiar with the matter stated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has instructed relevant teams to assess the damage caused by Iran to Gulf allies. Additionally, the US is exploring the use of frozen Iranian assets to compensate for potential future losses.

Based on the above information, although Trump stated last night that they are "very close to a very good, strong, powerful agreement," it remains difficult to reach a reconciliation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict without a definitive resolution on reparations and how frozen assets will be handled.

As for the impact on crypto assets, it is mainly limited to the macro-level influence on the overall crypto market trends, with a relatively smaller direct impact on specific coins like BTC and ETH in terms of market dumps.

In the foreseeable future, although both sides wish to end the conflict quickly, constrained by disputes over interests and the international situation, a pattern of "fighting while talking, talking while fighting" may well remain the norm for the US, Iran, and even Israel.