BIT Research: SpaceX Races Toward a Trillion-Dollar Valuation, What is the Market Actually Buying Into?
- Core Thesis: SpaceX's valuation logic is shifting from that of a traditional rocket company to a platform asset covering AI, global connectivity, and space infrastructure. Its implied market valuation of approximately $2.3 trillion reflects high growth expectations, but risks related to liquidity pressures and valuation discipline need to be monitored.
- Key Elements:
- SpaceX's acquisition of xAI expands its addressable market to approximately $28.5 trillion, with the AI market accounting for $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the $0.4 trillion of the traditional space business.
- SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid trade at a ~34% premium over the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market cap of approximately $2.3 trillion.
- Starlink's 2025 revenue reached $11.4 billion (up 50% YoY), with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, per-user ARPU declined from $99 to $66, raising questions about growth efficiency.
- The current valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 100x, far higher than most large tech companies, requiring sustained reinforcement of growth narratives and execution capabilities for support.
- The IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion, with a $20 billion bridge loan used to refinance high-yield debt. Lock-up arrangements could lead to persistent liquidity pressure.
- The global space economy is projected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033, with declining launch costs and enhanced AI synergies being core drivers.
The market is currently repricing around what could be the largest IPO in history for SpaceX. While most investors focus on its target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, perhaps more noteworthy is the underlying shift in the growth narrative it represents. With SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, the market is beginning to view it as a platform-level asset covering AI, global connectivity networks, and space infrastructure, rather than merely a rocket company.
From a market pricing perspective, SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid are already trading at a premium of roughly 34% above the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market cap of approximately $2.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a larger story ahead of time, and investors need to assess whether this narrative alone can justify such high valuation levels.
From Rocket Company to Infrastructure Platform: The Repricing Logic Behind SpaceX's Valuation
The combination of SpaceX and xAI pushes its total addressable market (TAM) to approximately $28.5 trillion. Within that, the AI-related market is roughly $26.5 trillion, global connectivity networks about $1.6 trillion, and traditional space operations themselves only around $0.4 trillion.
This means that the market is currently pricing not Mars exploration, but broader infrastructure value such as data centers, AI, and global communication networks. As SpaceX's core asset, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined from $99 three years ago to $66. Whether future user growth and profitability can rise in tandem will be a key determinant of valuation.
Meanwhile, SpaceX's current valuation corresponds to roughly 100 times price-to-sales, far exceeding most large technology companies. Such a high valuation not only requires continuous reinforcement of the growth narrative but also demands exceptionally strong execution capabilities from the company for many years to come.
Behind the High Valuation: IPO Liquidity and Expectations for Space Economy Expansion
Since 2002, SpaceX has raised only about $12 billion in total through private market funding rounds. This IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion and could generate around $800 million in underwriting fees for Wall Street. Additionally, in March 2026, SpaceX signed a $20 billion bridge loan to refinance high-yield debt related to X and xAI, making this listing also significant for balance sheet optimization.
Notably, SpaceX has adopted a relatively flexible lock-up arrangement. Some early investors can sell up to 20% of eligible shares after the first quarterly earnings report. If the stock price rises 30% above the IPO price, additional shares will also be unlocked. This implies that the market will face ongoing liquidity pressure post-IPO, explaining why the narrative surrounding SpaceX needs continuous strengthening to absorb potential future supply.
From a longer-term perspective, the core market bet remains on the expansion of the space economy. Mainstream forecasts suggest the global space economy could grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033. As launch costs continue to decline, synergies between satellite networks, orbital data, and AI applications are intensifying. True value may also gradually shift towards the platform and application layers.
Overall, SpaceX's current valuation already reflects high market expectations. In the short term, valuation discipline remains crucial. For investors, the focus perhaps should not be limited to SpaceX itself, but rather on the long-term trends it represents—the increasing convergence of AI, global connectivity networks, space infrastructure, and digital assets. If this trend continues to evolve, related publicly listed companies and space economy-themed assets could also serve as important windows for observing this narrative.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Market conditions involve risk and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
