The U.S. Government Has Approved Crypto Perpetual Futures for the First Time – What Does This Mean for the Market?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On May 29, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released guidance for 24/7 trading, emphasizing that due to digital infrastructure and global continuous trading characteristics, crypto asset-related derivatives are more suitable for round-the-clock trading and clearing.

This means the U.S., previously considered a "no-go zone for crypto perpetuals," has now been opened up for the first time, adding further momentum to its ambition of becoming the "crypto capital."

Numerous crypto trading platforms and traditional exchanges have swiftly responded by launching corresponding trading portals.

The CFTC's Greatest Gift to the Crypto Market: Opening the 24/7 Perpetual Market

According to不完全统计, in 2025, the trading volume of crypto derivative perpetual contracts ranged between $60 trillion and $85 trillion, with a single-day high reaching $750 billion, accounting for approximately 75% to 80% of total crypto trading volume. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: Kalshi stated that this market's total trading volume in 2025 exceeded $90 trillion).

However, for U.S. crypto platforms, regulators had previously failed to provide clear rules for this massive market.

Now, the CFTC has formally opened this market, which previously held nearly zero share, to U.S. citizens and certain domestic crypto platforms and CEM exchanges. Simultaneously, U.S. institutions and individual users can now trade crypto perpetual contracts seamlessly 24/7, eliminating the previous "time zone gap."

CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig described this as a historic step in "bringing the world's most active crypto derivatives into the U.S. regulatory framework." The regulatory move quickly triggered action from leading crypto platforms.

Direct Beneficiaries of the New Policy: Kalshi, Coinbase, CME

On the same day, the CFTC issued an approval order to Designated Contract Market KalshiEX, LLC, allowing it to list the perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin, BTCPERP, as a futures product. The contract was submitted for approval on May 29, 2026, under CFTC Regulation 40.3. Additionally, Kalshi plans to launch over a dozen crypto perpetual contracts in the future.

Furthermore, Coinbase announced that it has become the first and currently only CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) in the U.S., providing American clients with access to global crypto derivatives markets, including crypto perpetual contracts and options (connecting to platforms like Deribit, whose Bitcoin options open interest exceeds $31 billion). Coinbase has also received approval to allow customer crypto assets/stablecoins as margin (subject to rehypothecation conditions).

Finally, CME Group, a traditional exchange, is another direct beneficiary of this policy change. Its Globex platform's Bitcoin futures and options transitioned to 24/7 trading starting this Friday, ending the previous fixed closure from Friday to Sunday. Institutional clients can now seamlessly hedge spot price fluctuations.

However, this does not mean trading volume will suddenly surge — although the "CME gap" caused by weekend closures is now eliminated, market liquidity remains concentrated in ETF options and offshore perpetual contracts; IBIT options open interest significantly exceeds the CME crypto options market. Currently, short positions by large traders are declining, reducing short-term bearish pressure, but long positioning has yet to form a clear trend.

The Cautious Tone Behind the CFTC's Guidance: Commodity Differences and Reinforced Authority

Yesterday, aside from issuing a "No-Action Letter" to Coinbase, the relevant CFTC department specifically emphasized two points:

1. Traditional commodity derivatives such as agricultural products, due to their regional characteristics and unique trading structures, may not be suitable for full 24/7 operation.
2. Registered exchanges, swap execution facilities, derivatives clearing organizations, and futures commission merchants expanding into 24/7 trading must comply with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and related regulatory rules, and must proactively assess risk management and operational arrangements.

In other words, 24/7 perpetual trading of commodities like agricultural products is currently not permitted; and any institution seeking to open 24/7 derivative trading must communicate with CFTC staff in advance, submitting detailed plans and risk analyses. The CFTC will review compliance on a case-by-case basis.

Thus, this CFTC move appears to be a "special arrangement" specifically for crypto assets, paving the way for more crypto platforms to offer derivatives, further solidifying the CFTC's regulatory authority over crypto asset derivatives.

Industry Reactions: Overwhelming Praise and Support

The CFTC's regulatory guidance signifies that crypto derivatives in the U.S. market have truly achieved localized, round-the-clock trading. Liquidity from domestic users previously excluded from the U.S. market is expected to return rapidly, further enhancing institutional participation, capital efficiency, and, to some extent, reducing risk management costs (rollover costs, weekend time gaps).

Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that the CFTC guidance drives the development of Bitcoin capital markets, including 24/7 trading, BTC collateral, perpetual futures, options, and regulated access. This will benefit BTC holders, support MSTR's growth, and aid STRC's development as Bitcoin-backed digital credit.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong cheered: "U.S. users have been excluded from this global crypto market that accounts for 80% (including perpetual futures and options). But not anymore!"

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, "This marks Kalshi's evolution from a prediction market leader to a next-generation derivatives exchange. Regulated perpetual contracts, secure and within the U.S., will improve capital allocation and risk management for countless American businesses."

Such positive reactions from beneficiaries are understandable, though some external observers interpret this as "opening Pandora's box of speculation."

U.S. Non-Profit Third-Party Organization: CFTC Ignores Public Interest and Investor Protection

Better Markets, a third-party consumer protection organization founded after the 2008 financial crisis, stated officially, "Retail investors are unlikely to fully comprehend the risks associated with perpetual futures. We urged the CFTC last year to require enhanced disclosures that are easier for retail investors to understand. Unfortunately, not only did the CFTC fail to require such enhanced disclosures, but it also seems to have completely overlooked the risks posed by the products it approved."

"This CFTC action lacks the decorum expected of a regulatory agency. However, considering Coinbase and Kalshi serve as advisors on two CFTC advisory committees, this is not surprising. It's clear the CFTC's work is not for the public interest or investor protection, but for the industries it is supposed to regulate."

This pointedly suggests possible conflicts of interest or some degree of internal cooperation between the CFTC and Coinbase/Kalshi.

The U.S. Market is Poised for a Derivatives Trading Boom

Beyond the aforementioned direct beneficiaries, U.S. crypto exchange Kraken also stated it plans to launch its first CFTC-regulated perpetual futures product for the U.S. market within the next 30 days. Currently, perpetual futures on Kraken Pro are provided by NinjaTrader Clearing, LLC (operating as Kraken Derivatives US), which is a CFTC-registered FCM. Related spot margin and perpetual futures products will be offered on the Bitnomial Exchange (Odaily Planet Daily Note: The latter is a CFTC-regulated exchange recently acquired by Kraken's parent company, Payward).

Putting aside the polarized reviews, the gate to a multi-trillion-dollar perpetual derivatives market is slowly opening for U.S. users.