Conversation with VanEck CEO: Memory Chip Stocks Are a Supply-Demand Mismatch Bubble, Most Crypto Projects Will Die in Five Years

Compiled & Edited by: Odaily TechFlow

Guest: Jan van Eck (CEO of VanEck)

Host: Wilfred Frost

Original Title: Memory Is A Bubble, But Nvidia Protected – Jan Van Eck On Semis Surge

Podcast Source: The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Air Date: May 27, 2026

Editor's Note

In this episode, we are joined by VanEck CEO Jan van Eck. His core thesis is that Nvidia has evolved from a mere GPU manufacturer into the "mainframe" of AI infrastructure, boasting a moat built on its software ecosystem, scale, and power efficiency. Conversely, the surge in memory chip stocks looks more like a bubble driven by temporary supply-demand imbalances.

The head of VanEck, which manages approximately $225 billion in assets and was among the first to push for a Bitcoin ETF, distills the main themes of the next decade into three areas: AI computing infrastructure buildout, the rise of India, and excessive fiscal leveraging by developed economies including the US, UK, and Japan.

More strikingly, he dubs 2026 the "Year of the Corporate Controlled Chain," arguing that Wall Street will absorb the benefits of blockchain, stablecoins, and programmable money, but that most crypto projects and software will become irrelevant in 5 to 10 years. Bitcoin, stablecoins, and blockchain will endure, while many token ecosystems will vanish.

Key Quotes

AI, Semiconductors & Memory Chip Stocks

• "From an AI perspective, the problem is simple. Demand for compute power is here, but supply is underneath. Semiconductors are clearly at the core of this structure."
• "Nvidia is no longer just a GPU maker; it's more like the mainframe for AI. The old cyclical and hyper-competitive nature of a single-chip manufacturer is no longer its whole story."
• "Nvidia's advantage comes not just from manufacturing scale, but also from chips that generate more efficiency per dollar of electricity. With a forward earnings multiple in the low twenties, I still see it as a solid asset in a portfolio."
• "The profit explosion for memory chip stocks isn't primarily because they sold more units, but because prices increased. This means companies that use memory chips will start looking for ways to reduce their usage."
• "I don't like calling tops easily, but I'm cautious on memory chip stocks. In the medium to long term, they don't have a deep enough competitive moat like Nvidia does."

ETFs, Active Management & Asset Allocation

• "VanEck's investment philosophy is to look back from the perspective of ten years from now: by 2036, which major themes will have truly changed the world and financial markets?"
• "ETFs are a scale game. The larger the assets, the wider the client base you can serve. Much of active management, especially private equity and hedge funds, can actually suffer from diseconomies of scale."
• "Even if the ETF vehicle itself is passive, deciding which ETFs you own, how you allocate, and when to increase or decrease positions are fundamentally very active decisions."

Macro Debt, Gold & Hard Assets

• "If the market truly loses confidence in the US government's ability to meet its obligations, I don't know where to hide. Even if gold is a medium-term hedge, it could be sold off in the short term along with everything else."
• "I think gold is repositioning itself as the world's primary currency because if not the US dollar, I don't see China or India becoming the international reserve currency either."
• "Government bond markets are among the strangest and most inefficient markets in the world. They can get locked into a certain mindset and become disconnected from reality."
• "The nuclear energy ETF grew from under $20 million to $4.7 billion, driven by a very dramatic policy shift. Both parties in the US, as well as countries like Japan, are re-embracing nuclear power."

Crypto, Stablecoins & Corporate Controlled Chains

• "I call 2026 the 'Year of the Corporate Controlled Chain.' Banks, trading firms, and financial institutions want to adopt the best parts of blockchain but still control their own ecosystem."
• "I believe we are in a crypto winter, and it's not coming back. Many projects and software won't be interesting or even alive in five to ten years."
• "The concept of blockchain will survive, stablecoins will survive, Bitcoin will survive. But many other parts of the ecosystem, in my view, will disappear."
• "The stablecoin bill is the first time technology companies can compete with the banking system. But banks have survived competition before, like from money market funds."

India & SpaceX IPO

• "You can't fight demographics. Under Modi, India has consistently pushed pro-business reforms. There's no reason for a country like that not to grow at a higher rate."
• "SpaceX is massive. As an ETF issuer, we're very happy to see it enter the public market. The liquidity flowing into the economic system will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars."

The Frenzy in Memory Chip Stocks

Wilfred Frost: Our guest today is Jan van Eck, President and CEO of VanEck and its affiliates. Founded by his father, VanEck is now a major player in the ETF industry, managing about $225 billion in assets. Jan is a frequent podcast guest known for his direct and clear opinions, which is why we are so happy to have him. Jan, welcome to the show.

Jan van Eck: Wilfred, it's great to finally do this episode with you.

Wilfred Frost: I want to start with one specific ETF. Fair to say it's driven a lot of your performance in recent years and is at the center of the current market: SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. It's been remarkable lately. I understand it's now around $65 billion in AUM, correct?

Jan van Eck: Around that size, yes.

Wilfred Frost: It's become the primary gateway for investors wanting semiconductor exposure. Up 58% year-to-date, 135% over the past 12 months. Even more staggering, it's had an annualized return of about 29% since inception.

Jan van Eck: It's crazy, right?

Wilfred Frost: It's incredible. Achieving that on a compounded basis is very difficult. You could retire now.

Jan van Eck: Yeah, I should probably stop right now.

Wilfred Frost: But I suspect you won't, which is why you're here. Over the last year or so, SMH grew to $65 billion. How much of that was price appreciation versus inflows?

Jan van Eck: A large portion was price appreciation. I'd be surprised if inflows accounted for more than 10% to 20% over the past 12 months.

Wilfred Frost: That's interesting. I would have guessed inflows were a higher percentage. What do you think is driving it? Maybe it's a simple question: is it purely the AI theme?

Jan van Eck: Yes. VanEck's investment philosophy is to try and view things from a big-picture, macro perspective. I call it the '10-year macro.' The idea is to look back from 2036 and ask which themes will have most profoundly impacted the world, and therefore financial markets. This perspective aims to filter out a lot of noise.

I think at least three things will remain: AI, the rise of India, and excessive leveraging led by the US, UK, and Japan. From an AI standpoint, the logic is simple. Demand for compute power is high, supply is struggling to keep up. Semiconductors are clearly at the center.

Drilling down, you get to Nvidia. Our ETF has outperformed other semiconductor ETFs partly because it focuses on just the top 25 stocks and allows the largest position to go up to 20%. So, to a large extent, it has hitched its wagon to Nvidia.

Nvidia itself could be a whole show. Are we still comfortable with semiconductors, with Nvidia today? My answer is yes. No one can guarantee a company won't lose its competitive moat, but I think Nvidia will certainly still be a leader a decade from now. Part of the reason is that it's become like the mainframe for AI, no longer just a single chip or GPU maker. That old business was not only cyclical but also highly competitive.

Today's Nvidia has software, cost advantages, manufacturing scale, and superior power efficiency. In other words, a more efficient chip per dollar or pound of electricity. Its forward earnings multiple is only in the low twenties. So, despite not being the hottest stock in SMH over the last nine months, I still see it as a very solid part of the portfolio.

Wilfred Frost: According to your latest disclosures, Nvidia is about 17% of SMH, and TSMC is around 9%. I want to delve into them later. You mentioned that having significant Nvidia exposure is important, but it's also interesting that, at least this year or, as you said, over the last nine months, the performance wasn't solely driven by mega-caps like Nvidia. Many other semiconductor companies were left behind by the AI theme until recently catching up.

Jan van Eck: Absolutely. There's some thought, and some luck, in SMH's methodology. When you only pick the top 25 names, in this investment era of the last 15 to 20 years, what happened is that large-cap stocks truly led the market. There are certainly more than 100 semiconductor companies, and filtering out those at the bottom, in more competitive spaces, effectively removes the drag.

Of course, this doesn't apply to all investment periods. But in this period, it definitely amplified the impact of these big winners.

Wilfred Frost: In the short term, up 58% year-to-date, the rally has clearly broadened out significantly. Memory chip stocks have surged dramatically. Can this continue?

Jan van Eck: I doubt this specific performance can be sustained. We just saw historic moves in May, so I don't think it will keep going at this pace. But I also don't think the market pricing is necessarily irrational. Back to the super-macro view: if demand is high and supply is low, capital markets are essentially telling entrepreneurs and startups: come here, we need your capital, we are willing to value it highly because we need to build AI compute centers. That shouldn't be a surprise.

I think this ten-year view works because humans are naturally prone to looking backward. When a big trend emerges, whether it's the rise of a country or a major technology, we can't just look at the last few quarters of company earnings or past uses of the technology to understand the scale of its buildout.

Of course, not every tech trend pans out. There are many false starts and bogus technologies. But AI is clearly grabbing global markets by the throat and shaking them.

Wilfred Frost: One more short-term question. The KOSPI hit another all-time high today. It's tripled in the last 18 months, which is incredible for a country index, driven primarily by Samsung and SK Hynix. The Korean index had a 12% up day last week. Does this remind you of the opposite side of the coin? Like in late 2021, when some meme stocks surged, and then 2022 saw a massive correction. I know these memory chip stocks, especially those two, have incredible earnings per share forecasts, so it's different from meme stock mania. But are there any similarities that raise a red flag for you?

Jan van Eck: Within the AI ecosystem, I would say there are indeed some bubbles. Going back to late last year, the question was about the financial sustainability of the OpenAI ecosystem. OpenAI is one of the leading model companies with ChatGPT. Would Claude surpass it? In what I call the OpenAI ecosystem, companies like Oracle, which levered up to build compute for OpenAI, and CoreWeave were involved. Both were down about 50% at one point.

So even within the larger AI trend, you can find local bubbles, or company-specific bubbles. To your point, I do think the memory pocket is a phase-driven moment. It's hard to call a top in these moments, but I personally remain cautious on memory chip stocks because, in the medium to long term, they don't have what I consider a deep enough competitive moat like Nvidia.

There will be new entrants in this space. There is a shortage right now, which gives them pricing power. The main reason their profits exploded isn't a massive increase in unit sales – they have capacity constraints – it's that they raised prices significantly. This also means that the companies using these memory chips will start looking for ways to reduce their usage.

So I agree with your feeling that it has a strong sense of bubble. In our active management funds, we are reducing exposure to the memory sector.

Wilfred Frost: Nvidia is about 17% of SMH, TSMC is second, followed by US giants like Intel, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, each around 6% or 7%. Does TSMC have a similarly defensible moat to Nvidia? Even if of a different type, is the defensibility comparable?

Jan van Eck: I think so. TSMC not only has manufacturing capabilities but also the capital capacity to build extremely expensive chip fabrication facilities. I suspect one common advantage for both Nvidia and TSMC is that they work with a wide range of participants across the ecosystem, seeing almost all customers. This allows them to see where technology is headed and how customer needs will evolve. Most people would say TSMC will still be around in ten years; it will be a survivor.

Wilfred Frost: You mentioned Oracle or CoreWeave saw massive drawdowns from their late October highs to the 'Iran war lows' in March; Oracle nearly halved, which is significant for its size. I heard you say on another podcast not to worry too much about an overall AI bubble because, in a way, it's already popped once. The question is, in these moments, how do you have the confidence to re-enter the right names? Especially since a big part of the story involves unlisted companies, and investors can only access them through proxies.

Jan van Eck: This might sound like an ETF issuer's answer, but from a company perspective, a diversified approach is definitely more sensible. Timing-wise, if you're in a trend like this, it's better to buy on the dips than to chase it right now. Talking about SMH's flows earlier, I suspect a lot of the assets in this fund came from investors who bought years ago and let the appreciation happen naturally. That's somewhat healthy because there isn't too much hot money chasing it.

Of course, money is chasing memory stocks and the hottest parts of the ecosystem. But overall, in our broad portfolio models, we are still overweight semiconductors, though we are starting to think about taking some profits off the table here.

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