Institutions’ HYPE valuations vary this much? From $40 to $360

小飞

Odaily资深作者

2026-05-21 07:44

This article is about 3095 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

Behind the numerical divergence lies different valuation logic.

AI Summary

Expand

Core Thesis: The market has shown significant divergence in its valuation of Hyperliquid’s token, HYPE. Conservative estimates suggest a range of $40-$60, reflecting current revenue capabilities; the bull case targets $100-$150; while super-bulls make aggressive predictions of $180-$360, benchmarking against global exchanges and arguing that the narrative’s ceiling is far from being reached.
Key Elements:
1. HYPE currently has a market cap of approximately $14.4 billion and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of around $56.7 billion. The market’s pricing logic diverges, ranging from viewing it as a “perp DEX” to a “global trading infrastructure.”
2. Arthur Hayes predicts a target price of $150 for HYPE by August 2026. His core logic positions it as a “cash flow machine,” returning value to token holders through continuous buybacks, similar to an exchange rather than a traditional altcoin.
3. Research institution DCo’s bear case valuation model suggests HYPE should reach $60. Its logic is that Hyperliquid’s revenue scale has already reached 15% of CME’s, but its valuation is significantly lower than CME’s, and this model does not account for HIP-3 or the potential of a future multi-asset trading network.
4. Coinpedia, based on a long-term compounding model, predicts HYPE could reach $185 by 2030. Core logic includes the expansion of perpetual trading volume, growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, and an effective buyback mechanism.
5. Market consensus holds that HYPE’s price still has significant room to grow relative to its narrative ceiling. Institutions (e.g., 21Shares) have found that Hyperliquid possesses on-chain price discovery capabilities when traditional markets are closed, allowing it to price in geopolitical conflicts and crude oil market shocks ahead of time.

Hyperliquid is undoubtedly the hottest focus in the crypto world recently, and its token HYPE has been on a strong upward trajectory, now trading above $56.

Based on a circulating supply of approximately 254 million tokens, its circulating market cap is around $14.4 billion. Calculated using the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens, its FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) stands at approximately $56.7 billion.

Some believe it has already become too expensive, with no shortage of whales voting with their feet and taking heavy short positions. Others think this is just the beginning, even going so far as to benchmark it against Robinhood Markets, CME Group, and Nasdaq.

The valuation logic for crypto projects is usually clear: L1s are valued by their ecosystem, DeFi by TVL, Memes by sentiment and traffic, and platform tokens by fees and buybacks. But HYPE is a composite. It is both a perpetual DEX and its own chain and ecosystem. It has the attributes of a platform token while generating real cash flow. It resembles BNB, yet is increasingly encroaching into the traditional financial world, like a global exchange.

So, what should HYPE actually be worth?

Arthur Hayes: $150 | $38 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $150 Billion FDV

Currently, the most widely circulated HYPE price target comes from Arthur Hayes.

In March 2026, Arthur Hayes wrote in his article "$$HYPE Man": "My August 2026 target price for $$HYPE is $150," setting a target of $150 by August.

The core logic behind Arthur Hayes' figure isn't simply looking at trading volume growth. He believes Hyperliquid has become one of the few true "cash flow machines" within the crypto industry. In the article, he also wrote: "No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid."

He suggests Hyperliquid resembles an exchange that continuously buys back its shares, rather than a traditional altcoin.

DCo: $60 | $15.2 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $60 Billion FDV

Compared to Arthur Hayes' aggressive stance, research institution DCo represents a more traditional valuation analysis approach.

On March 13, 2026, DCo's valuation model for Hyperliquid was widely shared. It noted: "HYPE’s current price of $37 has fallen below the bear market target price of $60." This implies that even by their most conservative "bear market valuation model," HYPE should reach $60, and the current price is already close to their prediction.

DCo's core logic is directly benchmarking Hyperliquid against CME. They believe that Hyperliquid's revenue scale at the time was already close to 15% of CME's, yet its overall valuation was significantly lower. The market has yet to truly price in future potential like HIP-3, multi-asset trading, and a global liquidity network into HYPE's price.

Coincub Conservative: $120 | $30.5 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $120 Billion FDV

Coincub Bullish: $300 | $76.2 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $300 Billion FDV

Research platform Coincub provides a model with two versions based on the predicted trajectory of the crypto market.

The conservative version predicts a range of $50-$120. Coincub's valuation logic is that Hyperliquid will gradually become the on-chain derivatives infrastructure and continuously absorb trading volume from centralized exchanges. However, if a crypto bull market returns, they believe HYPE should rise to $180-$300.

They argue that Hyperliquid is not just an excellent DeFi protocol; it has begun competing with global trading platforms like Binance and Coinbase, can attract institutional trader adoption, and enter the valuation framework of a "global trading infrastructure."

CoinCodex: $100 | $25.4 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $100 Billion FDV

Quantitative prediction platform CoinCodex states on its prediction page that, according to its algorithmic model, HYPE is expected to reach $100 by February 2027. However, its prediction range for 2026 remains concentrated between $41 and $56.

From CoinCodex's perspective, HYPE indeed has long-term growth potential, but the market has already priced in expectations in the short term.

Coinpedia: $185 | $47 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $185 Billion FDV

Coinpedia's HYPE prediction page gives a price range of $105-$185 for 2030.

Its core logic is based on a long-term compound model: sustained expansion of Hyperliquid perp volume, growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, continuous improvement in fee capture, and an effective long-term buyback mechanism.

3Commas: $45-$50 | $11.4-$12.7 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $45-$50 Billion FDV

In the TradingBeasts and WalletInvestor models aggregated by 3Commas, HYPE's predicted price for 2026 remains concentrated between $45.2 and $49.6.

Their models lean more towards technical analysis and historical volatility prediction and do not assign much "global exchange premium" to Hyperliquid.

In other words, from their perspective, the current price has already reached a reasonable range.

Axel Bitblaze: $180-$360 | $45.7-$91.4 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $180-$360 Billion FDV

Beyond institutions and research models, increasingly aggressive super-bulls are emerging on X.

Top crypto KOL Axel Bitblaze believes HYPE's fair value range is $180-$360, gaining traction and recognition among many followers.

His core logic is that Hyperliquid will ultimately simultaneously possess Binance's platform attributes, Solana's chain attributes, and CME's trading attributes.

Where is HYPE's Valuation Ceiling?

Putting together all the clear price opinions from the recent period reveals a stratification in market valuations for HYPE.

Many institutional viewpoints suggest that the $40-$60 range, corresponding to a circulating market cap of roughly $10-$15 billion and an FDV of about $40-$60 billion, basically reflects Hyperliquid's current revenue capacity. This implies the current price has hit a near-term peak.

The bullish range sits between $100 and $150, corresponding to a circulating market cap of approximately $25-$38 billion and an FDV around $100-$150 billion.

The most aggressive super-bulls have already started pushing HYPE towards $180-$360, corresponding to an FDV in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Furthermore, while many institutions haven't given explicit price predictions, they have written articles suggesting HYPE should be revalued.

Matt Hougan once stated that the market is still pricing Hyperliquid as a crypto perp DEX, but what Hyperliquid aims to be is a global trading platform covering stocks, forex, commodities, and prediction markets.

21Shares wrote in its research: "Hyperliquid isn't just faster; it priced in the impact of this shock nearly 48 hours ahead of the traditional financial system."

Institutions have discovered that during geopolitical conflicts and when traditional markets are closed for crude oil price discovery, Hyperliquid's on-chain contracts have already completed global pricing in advance.

This is why, starting in May, more and more institutions have begun benchmarking Hyperliquid against CME, ICE, and Nasdaq instead of UNI or dYdX.

This is the reason the market has been ignited. Regardless of short-term pullbacks, the basic consensus is that HYPE's price still has significant room for growth before reaching its narrative ceiling.