The crypto market may still be clinging to the old cyclical script, but the trajectory of the next phase could be fundamentally different.

For years, Bitcoin's price movements have been understood within the framework of the "four-year halving cycle": supply contraction, speculative frenzy, deep crash, and then the cycle repeats. This framework indeed explained many phenomena in the early, retail-dominated market stages. However, as institutional capital deepens its participation, compliant investment tools expand accessibility, and crypto-native infrastructure matures, the old narrative may no longer suffice to explain the current market.

CoinEx Research is among the early voices suggesting the market is entering an "era of structural change." In its annual outlook, "Crypto Market Outlook 2026: Unlock Certainty in Volatility," CoinEx presents a base case scenario: Bitcoin's price could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. While this prediction itself draws attention, what's more noteworthy than the number is the underlying logic: Bitcoin is increasingly being shaped by a combination of macro liquidity, institutional capital flows, and crypto-native catalysts, rather than being solely driven by halving logic.

According to Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, this target should by no means be interpreted as a "promise." He stated that it is merely a probability-weighted outcome based on several premises, and not all of these conditions have been met yet.

Jeff Ko said, "The $180,000 base case is not a guarantee. We maintain this judgment based on three factors: the macro environment, the supply cycle, and the ongoing construction of institutional infrastructure. But we follow the data, not the narrative."

In CoinEx's view, the most critical variable influencing Bitcoin's price path remains the global liquidity cycle. For Bitcoin to truly move towards a higher target range, the Federal Reserve cannot merely implement symbolic rate cuts once or twice; the key is entering a sustained easing phase that substantially improves USD liquidity conditions. Historical experience shows that when real interest rates fall and the dollar weakens, capital tends to flow into both risk assets and "hard assets," providing a more favorable external environment for Bitcoin.

Regulation is another key variable. The market's aversion to uncertainty is often stronger than its reaction to bad news itself. If the US can make clearer progress on a digital asset regulatory framework, especially if the CLARITY Act sees substantive advancement, it could weaken a core resistance that has long suppressed institutional entry. Coupled with continued regulatory progress in major European and Asian markets, CoinEx believes this will help asset managers, corporate treasuries, and other allocative capital participate more deeply in the digital asset market.

Interestingly, the current market's extreme fear readings, in CoinEx's view, do not necessarily conflict with this long-term logic. Jeff Ko believes it might even be part of this logic.

He said, "Historically, extreme fear often looks more like an accumulation zone than a distribution zone."

Of course, CoinEx is also clear about when its view might need revision. If inflation reaccelerates significantly, forcing the Fed back onto an aggressive tightening path, or even preventing any substantive easing before mid-2026, the macro foundation of this forecast would be significantly weakened. In that scenario, CoinEx would likely reassess its price target.

Why CoinEx Believes the "Halving Script" is Failing

Skeptics might argue: the market doesn't look that different. Bitcoin has still experienced a significant pullback, and in form, it still bears the shadow of a classic bear market phase. But CoinEx believes the underlying market structure has undergone an essential change, and that is the truly important part.

The first, and most intuitive, change comes from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

In previous cycles, the market lacked such a continuously operating, regulated institutional buying mechanism. For CoinEx, the significance of ETFs lies not only in the scale of inflows but, more crucially, in how these funds behave under pressure.

Past declines were primarily driven by retail panic, with cascading liquidations rapidly amplifying the downtrend, while institutions offered little effective hedging or absorption. However, in the current environment, CoinEx points out that even under market pressure, spot ETFs have maintained a degree of net inflow. This suggests the emergence of a structural buying force in the market, capable of absorbing selling pressure to some extent, rather than allowing every correction to spiral into the deep crashes of the past.

This is also why CoinEx does not believe this cycle will repeat the near-80% crashes of the past. A 47% correction is certainly still painful, but within CoinEx's analytical framework, this alone does not automatically prove the old cycle logic remains fully intact.

The second important change is the participation structure in the derivatives market.

In previous cycles, derivatives often acted as amplifiers of volatility. High-leverage traders rushed in during trends and accelerated the stampede during declines, further pushing up volatility. But now, at least in markets like CME Bitcoin futures, the participant composition seems to have changed.

During the 2020-2021 period, CME open interest was driven more by trend traders and directional hedge funds. CoinEx believes a larger proportion of positions now come from basis traders—participants engaging in cash-and-carry arbitrage based on the spread between spot and futures prices. These traders typically have no strong directional bias on price itself, so they are less prone to panic exits during market downturns. Their presence might instead provide a stabilizer for the derivatives market, rather than continuing to amplify volatility.

Furthermore, CoinEx notes that the compression of market volatility this cycle has occurred earlier than in the past, which is seen as a sign of market maturity, deepening liquidity, and a broadening holder base. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's relationship with the Nasdaq is also changing. It is no longer a consistently strong correlated asset but behaves more like it switches correlations depending on the environment: it operates more independently during crypto-native, event-driven periods, and re-synchronizes with risk assets during heightened global macro shocks.

This characteristic is crucial. It means Bitcoin is no longer merely mechanically replaying the old post-halving script but is increasingly influenced by a combination of macro conditions, institutional allocation behavior, and internal crypto market events.

A More Selective Market, Not a Broad-Based Altseason

This logic of "structural change" also influences CoinEx's judgment on the altcoin market.

At the end of 2025, Jeff Ko stated that liquidity would become "extremely picky," prioritizing only blue-chip projects with genuine, practical value. At first glance, this seems to conflict with the model of an exchange supporting a wide range of altcoin trading. But CoinEx's explanation is that research conclusions and exchange functions serve two different levels.

Ultimately, research conclusions discuss the distribution of returns. CoinEx's point is not that altcoins will cease to exist, but that the market is unlikely to see another broad-based altseason characterized by "indiscriminate price surges." Future capital is more likely to concentrate on projects with real adoption, real use cases, and stronger survivability.

The exchange's responsibility, however, is to provide asset access, liquidity, price discovery, and risk transfer tools for different types of users. Some seek long-term allocation, others look for short-term opportunities, and some need access to specific ecosystems or early-stage projects. From this perspective, an exchange offering a wide range of listings does not equate to holding an equally bullish long-term view on all assets.

In other words, a broad listing scope does not equal a broad recommendation scope. In an open market with highly heterogeneous demand, supporting diverse assets is itself part of a trading platform's function.

If CoinEx's judgment holds, the next market phase will no longer be primarily driven by indiscriminate speculation but will be more determined by selective capital, genuine utility, and project resilience.

CoinEx's Product Logic: Not Chasing New Narratives, but Extending Core Capabilities

This emphasis on "practicality" is also reflected in CoinEx's recent product expansions.

In 2025, CoinEx launched three products targeting different needs: CoinEx Vault, an institutional-grade self-custody solution; CoinEx OnChain, allowing users to trade on-chain assets via the CEX interface; and CoinEx Pay, targeting real-world payment settlements.

In CoinEx's view, these three products are not a so-called "second growth curve" but rather infrastructure extensions of its core trading business. The company's most important growth direction remains continuously optimizing the trading experience itself. Vault, OnChain, and Pay are not horizontal expansions away from the core trading business but are designed to make the trading ecosystem more complete and usable.

Among these, CoinEx seems to value OnChain the most. This product most directly extends the platform's core trading capability, enabling users to access longer-tail, earlier-stage assets within the familiar CoinEx interface without waiting for these projects to meet formal spot listing standards. More importantly, it also reflects CoinEx's judgment on the future role of centralized exchanges: CEXs will continue to exist long-term, but their role must evolve.

In the future, the value of a CEX will no longer be just the "sole venue for trade execution" but will resemble more of an access layer, trust layer, and service layer built around on-chain liquidity. Even as decentralized exchange user experience improves, a large number of users will remain unwilling to manage seed phrases, manually bridge assets, or repeatedly handle signatures, gas, and routing issues. Products like OnChain exist precisely to bridge this experience gap.

If this model proves successful, future centralized exchanges may not necessarily compete directly with DeFi but are more likely to "package" decentralized market opportunities into a more user-friendly, secure, and compliance-aligned product experience.

Why CoinEx is Bullish on the Long-Term Potential of BTCFi

In this future vision of centralized and decentralized fusion, BTCFi is one of the most representative examples.

Bitcoin-related DeFi activity has grown rapidly in recent years, and Bitcoin's position in total DeFi TVL has significantly increased. However, CoinEx does not simply take these figures as proof that BTCFi has matured. A considerable portion of this TVL still comes from wrapped or bridged Bitcoin like WBTC and cbBTC, not from native programmability built on Bitcoin's own settlement layer.

This distinction is crucial. It shows that "Bitcoin's value" is already being used in DeFi, but it does not mean "Bitcoin's own infrastructure" can yet support DeFi at scale. CoinEx believes what deserves more attention is not the current surface-level TVL but the direction in which native programmability is gradually forming, such as Babylon, lower-trust bridging designs related to BitVM, etc.

CoinEx believes its background, backed by ViaBTC's mining operations, gives it a natural advantage in this direction. Compared to exchanges more focused on altcoins, CoinEx has deeper connections with miners, long-term holders, and Bitcoin-native users. However, it also acknowledges that becoming a truly meaningful BTCFi hub is not as simple as listing a few BTCFi tokens.

What truly matters is that CoinEx needs to become a practical gateway for users to enter BTCFi: helping users discover products, execute trades, receive education, and rotate assets, while providing effective risk screening in a still very early and highly risk-differentiated sector. According to Jeff Ko, a credible BTCFi platform should help users distinguish: which are serious Bitcoin peripheral infrastructure projects, which are relatively high-quality yield tools, and which are merely speculative wrappers or fragile tokenization stories unlikely to survive a full cycle.

The core of CoinEx's long-term bullish logic on BTCFi lies in a very practical judgment: Bitcoin remains the largest pool of "idle collateral" in the entire crypto world. If even a small portion of BTC shifts from passive holding to lending, structured yield, stablecoin collateral, or cross-chain applications, the addressable market size would be immense. However, whether BTCFi can succeed long-term ultimately depends on its ability to provide real utility for Bitcoin holders, not push them onto excessively high-risk curves.

The Killer App Question

CoinEx's judgment on the market's next phase is also reflected in its understanding of "mass adoption."

For many years, the industry has searched for a "killer app" that could truly bring Web3 into the mainstream—like the role Facebook, Instagram, or Visa played in their respective eras. But the answer CoinEx provides is not another social media platform or another consumer-facing super app. It believes the areas currently closest to real product-market fit are actually two directions: cross-border payments based on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, and crypto-native financial infrastructure, such as automated market makers, next-generation liquidity pools, and decentralized perpetual contracts.

This is a rather pragmatic answer. CoinEx does not attempt to portray itself as the creator of some "Web3 version of Instagram" but more clearly positions itself on infrastructure, access, and execution efficiency. It believes its strength lies not in building a mass-market lifestyle product but in perfecting exchange-related functions while helping users participate more efficiently in the entire crypto ecosystem.

This also means that products like self-custody, on-chain access, and payment tools are not intended to turn CoinEx into a consumer super app but to make bounded extensions around its core mission—enhancing users' trading and asset management experience.

How CoinEx Views Overvaluation and Undervaluation in RWA

For RWA (Real World Asset tokenization), CoinEx applies the same pragmatic standards.

It is relatively cautious about tokenized private equity and venture capital. While such assets seem attractive because they promise to bring liquidity to an otherwise highly illiquid asset class, CoinEx's view is straightforward: a tokenization wrapper does not solve the core source of returns for private assets. The key to private equity returns still lies in governance rights, operational improvements, informational advantages, and manager skill, not in the existence of a token shell.

Similarly, tokenization does not automatically solve liquidity issues. Given current market depth, the "secondary market liquidity" claimed for such assets often remains more theoretical. In many cases, bid-ask spreads and trading depth are still far from mature market standards. Therefore, CoinEx believes some directions within this sector may be overvalued relative to their actual liquidity contribution.

Comparatively, CoinEx is more bullish on tokenized US Treasuries and short-duration government securities. In its view, this is one of the few areas already demonstrating product-market fit. The "undervaluation" here is not that no one is paying attention, but that the market may still underestimate its future importance as an on-chain cash management, collateral, and settlement foundational layer. It combines legal clarity, yield visibility, institutional relevance, and relatively simple operational logic—a combination of advantages many other RWA categories currently lack.

CoinEx also maintains a positive outlook on tokenized trade finance. This is a massive market still plagued by paper-based processes, slow settlements, opaque counterparty risks, and high financing barriers for SMEs. The core features of blockchain—immutable document records, programmable payment triggers, and transparent transaction history—almost naturally address these inefficiencies.

Beyond this, CoinEx also sees long-term potential in tokenized SME loans. The traditional banking system has long served SMEs inefficiently due to insufficient collateral, cumbersome paperwork, and relationship-driven credit processes. If future loan records, collateral management, and asset pool performance can be presented more transparently and programmatically on-chain, this field could simultaneously open new financing channels for SMEs and provide investors with a more attractive yield asset class.

A Market Less Driven by Sentiment, More Determined by Structure

What emerges from CoinEx's overall judgment is not merely a Bitcoin price prediction or one exchange's product roadmap. The deeper implication is that the crypto market is entering a new phase—one with less drama but more structural constraints.

In this phase, old narratives remain important, but they can no longer independently explain enough. Bitcoin is no longer just halving-driven but increasingly influenced by liquidity, institutional, and regulatory conditions. The altcoin market remains active, but capital will be more selective. On-chain infrastructure continues to expand, but usability, trust, and risk screening remain crucial. And the most significant growth sectors may not come from speculative narratives themselves but from the restructuring of collateral, settlement, and real financial efficiency.

If CoinEx's judgment is correct, the ultimate winners of the next crypto cycle might not be the loudest projects with the hottest stories, but those with the most stable structures, strongest foundations, and the greatest ability to truly cut through the noise.

About CoinEx

Founded in 2017, CoinEx is a user-centric cryptocurrency exchange backed by the industry-leading mining pool, ViaBTC. Since its inception, CoinEx has been among the early adopters in the industry to implement Proof of Reserves and a 100% reserve policy to safeguard user assets. Today, CoinEx serves over 10 million users across more than 200 countries and regions, supporting over 1,100 cryptocurrencies. With its professional-grade product features and services, it has become a trusted expert in the crypto trading platform space.

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