Still Not Enough to Eat? Prediction Market Giants Set Sights on Payments and AI's Big Cake

Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Time is running out for traditional gambling companies, which might be the latest consensus in the prediction market arena.

During the recently concluded Oscars event, the total wagered funds on Kalshi and Polymarket surpassed $100 million for the first time, a figure that was still under $10 million last year. On another front, Kalshi partnered with Cash App to streamline user payment channels; after launching its AI Agent CLI application, Polymarket now supports 24/7 trading by AI Agents using the AgentCard launched by Alchemy. In 2026, a "big year for predictions" marked by numerous historic moments, the two prediction market giants are finding their own ways to attract new users from traditional gambling companies, internet platforms, traditional media, and even the traditional finance industry. This time, they have first targeted real users from payment channels and tireless AI Agents.

New Victories for Prediction Market Giants: Payment Channels and AI Agent Users

Last week, the renowned investment firm Paradigm released its first public opinion survey report of the year, which is also the institution's first survey report on prediction market platforms.

The survey results show that over one-third (approximately 36%) of U.S. voters have already used prediction markets, either to place bets or to browse markets for information.

Regarding user demographics, the prediction market user base under 50 years old accounts for a high 66%, with 18-34 year olds making up 20% and 35-49 year olds making up 27%; non-white voters have a slightly higher usage rate of prediction markets than white voters, and men have a significantly higher usage rate than women (46% vs. 31%).

Thus, in the U.S. market, prediction markets are no longer a "niche sector" of the past but have become "information sources," "trading desks," and "news pools" closely related to countless households.

Of course, as the lead investor in Kalshi's last $1 billion funding round, Paradigm's move is undoubtedly "shouting out for his bag" (promoting its own investment), which is understandable. However, this survey also reflects a new question—how will Kalshi and Polymarket, the two giants of the prediction market, penetrate the remaining 64% of U.S. voters and even all U.S. citizens?

The answer is naturally: either wage war against the old guard; or find new growth avenues.

Kalshi's New Growth Method: Integrating Payment Channels to Encourage User Deposits

During the week of March 2 to March 8, Kalshi's transaction count surpassed 20 million for the first time, setting a new weekly transaction record since the platform's inception. With trading volume and transaction counts continuously reaching new highs, if they want to go even further, tapping into existing user pools is undoubtedly a more efficient strategy.

This might be the reason why Kalshi announced a partnership last week with Cash App, the payment application under Block. Kalshi's official statement was even more direct—"make funding your Kalshi account easier with Cash App Pay." They almost spelled out "quickly use Cash App Pay to deposit money and start betting" on their faces.

After all, even if only one percent of Cash App's 59 million monthly active transacting users convert, it would bring Kalshi nearly 600,000 users, equivalent to the user base it might gain from several years of hard work. More importantly, these are all "incremental gains."

Polymarket's Market Expansion Method: Targeting AI Agents as Users, Not Just Humans

On the other side of the prediction market, Polymarket, the other giant, is also performing impressively.

Since resuming operations in the U.S. last November, as of March 14, Polymarket's U.S. platform nominal trading volume has exceeded $750 million, with over 5 million transactions. The platform's open interest once reached as high as $2.6 million and has recently settled around $1 million.

Furthermore, according to Dune data, since starting to charge trading fees on certain markets (including NCAA and crypto price movement markets) on January 6, Polymarket has accumulated over $11.2 million in fee revenue. In other words, Polymarket has fully validated its ability to generate revenue.

Therefore, the ambitious Polymarket is no longer satisfied with just the existing market of human users and has even started betting on supporting 24/7 trading by AI Agents.

Last weekend, the crypto payment platform Alchemy officially launched the AI agent payment platform AgentCard. In addition to conventional payment functions like food delivery and AI application subscriptions, it particularly emphasized that "users' AI Agents can now trade on Polymarket 24/7"; this news was subsequently confirmed by a repost from Polymarket's official account.

Against the backdrop of the viral success of OpenClaw "Lobster," and with x402, ERC8004, and ERC8183 all supporting AI Agent payments, combined with Polymarket's previously announced Polymarket CLI designed specifically for AI Agents, a prediction market platform supporting functions like querying prediction market data, executing orders, managing positions, and interacting with on-chain contracts is gradually taking shape.

Similar to Circle's transformation from a "stablecoin issuer" to an "infrastructure builder for the AI era's finance," Polymarket has already seized the important niche of being a "prediction market platform for AI Agents." As NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang said at last year's CES, the AI Agent industry will become a trillion-dollar market like the robotics industry, and the 24/7 tireless AI Agents might first shine brightly in prediction markets.

Conclusion: The New War in Prediction Markets Has Begun

Undoubtedly, a new war for prediction market platforms has quietly begun. This includes deeply activating existing users, continuously incentivizing active users, and constantly converting new users; it also involves expanding the boundaries of prediction events, engaging in dialogue with regulatory forces, and even pursuing futuristic development targeting "potential active users" like AI Agents.

Previously, Dingaling, founder of the BSC ecosystem prediction market platform Predict.fun, also planned to launch products combining prediction markets and DeFi, intending to provide users with interest-earning opportunities for their account funds, which can be considered a unique type of "PayFi yield product" and is also quite promising.

Regardless of the outcome of prediction market development, on the path to seeking $20 billion or more in funding, Kalshi and Polymarket have already activated new growth levers.