MVC Market Viewpoint Express (3.9-3.15)
- Core View: Analysis suggests that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have an overall manageable impact on the market. The long-term trends for commodities and precious metals remain upward. The investment strategy will revolve around the theme of credit system restructuring, focusing on allocating RMB-denominated resource assets and seeking opportunities for high elasticity.
- Key Elements:
- Regarding geopolitics, the assessment is that the US is highly unlikely to commit ground troops. Iran may use external pressure for internal adjustments. A 20% rise in oil prices would trigger a US policy response. Overall risks are considered controllable.
- Investment Theme One is commodities and resources. We remain bullish on gold, which is running at high levels, and have already positioned in gold mining. Copper is also viewed as a medium-to-long-term allocation beneficiary of future liquidity expansion.
- Investment Theme Two is digital assets. The view is that BTC has shown relative strength recently but no clear trend reversal signal has emerged. The strategy primarily involves cautious observation and controlling drawdowns, awaiting a turning point in US dollar liquidity.
- Investment Theme Three is AI and technology. The current pricing of leading AI stocks is considered relatively full, making it difficult to achieve excess consensus in the short term. Subsequent performance is highly dependent on changes in the global liquidity environment.
- The core of the overall strategy centers on two key judgments: "restructuring of the traditional credit system" and "the East rising as the West declines," with a focus on allocating RMB-denominated resource assets.
Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the market's pricing of the Iran conflict is still evolving. Our assessment is that the US is highly unlikely to commit ground troops, and internally, Iran is more likely to use external pressure to legitimize a reshuffle of its power structure. If oil prices rise by 20%, it will trigger a US policy-level response mechanism, keeping the situation largely under control. As long as oil prices remain below $100, geopolitical premiums will continue to unsettle market sentiment. However, the long-term trend (especially for commodities/precious metals) remains in an upward channel, and we plan to add to our positions on dips with new capital.
Against this backdrop, we are focusing on three main themes:
1. Commodities and Resources. Geopolitical risks combined with the restructuring of the credit system are keeping gold prices elevated. We remain bullish on the precious metals sector and have gradually initiated positions in gold mining-related assets. Copper, as a medium-to-long-term allocation, will benefit from the future liquidity expansion cycle; we are simultaneously watching for entry opportunities.
2. Digital Assets. BTC has recently shown relative strength compared to stocks, but clear trend reversal signals have yet to emerge. We maintain a cautious stance, prioritizing drawdown control while awaiting confirmation of a turning point in US dollar liquidity.
3. AI and Technology. Current market pricing for leading AI companies is already quite full, making it difficult to find excess consensus in the short term. Future performance will be highly dependent on changes in the global liquidity environment.
Overall, we continue to focus on the two core themes of "restructuring of the traditional credit system" and "the rise of the East and decline of the West," prioritizing the allocation of RMB-denominated resource assets to seek resilience within certainty.
