How to Systematically Track High-Win-Rate Addresses on Polymarket?

Original Title:How To Find 100X Insider Polymarket Wallets To Cop，Author: Aleiah (@AleiahLock)

Compiled by | Odaily (@OdailyChina); Translator | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

An address on Polymarket turned $35,000 into $442,000, achieving a 12.6x return. Notably, this address established its position several hours before a major market movement, and the trade was largely closed out before the news spread to mainstream channels. This is not an isolated case. Before the news of the "Venezuela Raid" political event became public, three addresses positioned themselves early and collectively profited $630,000 from the same event.

If such trading occurred in traditional financial markets, one might easily think of information asymmetry. However, in prediction markets, all fund flows and position changes are recorded on the public blockchain; there are no hidden accounts or private transactions.

Public does not mean there is no gap. The key is not whether one can see the trades, but whether one can discern truly informative signals from the massive amount of data.

Every Trade on Polymarket is Public Data

Many prediction market participants still view Polymarket as a traditional betting platform: watching odds, choosing a side, and betting on outcomes. But Polymarket's underlying structure is completely different from DraftKings or ordinary sports betting. All trades occur on-chain; fund flows, position sizes, and entry/exit timings are all publicly verifiable. The operational paths of the most accurate and timely addresses are not post-hoc speculation but real-time, visible on-chain records.

Polymarket's API is also open. Trading records, market data, historical transactions—anyone can directly call them; there is no permission barrier.

Therefore, the gap is not about who can see the data, but about who can extract meaning from it. On-chain information is public, but what is truly valuable are the wallets worth tracking continuously and the ability to recognize changes in their behavior before prices fully reflect them.

What Characteristics Do Real "Insider Addresses" Typically Have?

It must be emphasized that not all profitable wallets imply insider information. Some traders have solid research capabilities, while others rely on quantitative models and algorithmic advantages. However, when profitability is repeatedly combined with specific behavioral patterns, certain structural features distinct from "luck" can be observed.

Type 1: Combination of New Addresses and Unusually Large Bets

It is uncommon for a wallet created just days ago, with very few transactions, to suddenly deploy a large amount of capital in a low-liquidity niche market. Especially in the absence of public catalysts, large, concentrated position-building often carries stronger informational significance.

Type 2: Highly Vertical Trading Focus

Some addresses do not operate across markets but focus long-term on a specific niche, maintaining a stable and significant win rate within that field. They do not diversify across crypto prices, elections, sports, etc., but concentrate firepower on a single theme, with more decisive position decisions.

Type 3: Abnormal Changes in Position Size

When an address that has been betting with medium-sized positions for a long time suddenly significantly increases its stake in a particular market, this behavior often indicates a change in the strength of its conviction. The position size itself is an attitude; a sudden change in scale usually reflects an upgrade in information or belief.

Type 4: Overly Precise Timing

Sporadic early positioning can be attributed to coincidence. But if an address repeatedly completes position-building hours before major news announcements, with highly consistent direction, such timing lead is difficult to explain simply as luck. Once is random; repeated occurrences are more likely to reflect an information advantage.

How to Systematically Screen for Potential "Information Advantage Addresses"

Step 1: Analyze Polymarket Leaderboard Performance

Start with the leaderboard on Polymarket Analytics (link: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders), sorted by 30-day P&L, using recent stable profitability as the first filter. Focus on wallet addresses with consecutive 30-day overall positive returns, win rates above 55%, and total profits significantly higher than total losses. Also, confirm their trading is concentrated in markets with genuine liquidity, not low-volume prediction events with little participation.

The goal at this stage is not to directly judge whether they have an information advantage, but to establish a watchlist of addresses with sustained profitability. A stable profit record is the foundation for subsequent behavioral analysis.

Step 2: Analyze Position Structure in Specific Events

After the initial screening, drill down into specific trading events. Enter active prediction markets and view the Top Holders list for that event. Polymarket publicly displays the addresses with the largest current positions; these large positions often represent stronger conviction.

The key is not whether an address hits a single large bet, but whether its behavior is consistent. If a wallet repeatedly appears on the top holder lists for multiple significant events, and these positions are established before the market has fully priced them in, then this repetition itself constitutes a signal.

A single successful bet might be accidental, but repeatedly building large positions early, with consistent direction and validated outcomes, often indicates a stable advantage in their judgment system.

Step 3: Analyze Trading Behavior and Position-Building Timing

After identifying candidate addresses, further trace their on-chain transaction history, focusing on analyzing entry timing, position structure, and holding rhythm.

First, observe the entry timing. If buying occurs hours before official news announcements and repeats multiple times, the timing advantage itself becomes a significant variable. Entering after media coverage is more likely just information following.

Second, analyze the method of position building. Mature traders typically build positions in batches, gradually increasing exposure, while wallets with strong informational judgment often complete concentrated positioning quickly within a short timeframe due to limited windows.

Third, pay attention to the holding period. Some high-quality addresses choose to exit during the middle stages of a trend's development, rather than waiting for the tail end of extreme volatility, indicating their goal is to capture the main trend, not marginal profits.

Finally, observe their trading scope. Addresses that are highly vertical and long-term focused on a single niche are more likely to develop stable information advantages. Addresses frequently operating across different sectors are more likely to rely on market sentiment rather than specific domain judgment.

Advanced Address Tracking Strategies

After mastering basic screening methods, what truly creates a gap is the further deconstruction of details in fund behavior.

First, focus on exit behavior, not just entry timing. Addresses with information advantages often not only position early but also proactively reduce positions before potential negative news emerges. When a large address with a long history of stable holdings suddenly reduces its position significantly without obvious catalysts, the informational content is often higher than its initial buying behavior. Especially when the reduction reaches a significant proportion, this change itself is a signal.

Second, conduct wallet clustering analysis using on-chain data. Connections between addresses are not completely untraceable. Identical funding sources, similar gas usage patterns, and transactions occurring consecutively within extremely short timeframes may reveal relationships between addresses. Many seemingly "brand new" accounts can often be traced back to a long-active old address through 2-3 fund transfers. Tracing along the fund flow path helps identify new potential high-quality accounts before the market notices.

Furthermore, pay attention to abnormal volume changes in obscure markets. If a market with typically small daily trading volume suddenly experiences significant capital inflows without public news, this structural surge often indicates that some participants have already acted early. Analyzing the specific addresses driving the volume change can help build a new watchlist.

Finally, cross-verify on-chain behavior with external public information. The so-called "Pizza Index" once inferred potential military actions from abnormal order volumes at pizza shops near the Pentagon. Similarly, flight tracking data, social media activity of key figures, adjustments to public schedules, and other information can provide corroboration or counter-verification for on-chain position behavior. The linkage between on-chain capital flows and real-world signals often strengthens the reliability of judgment.