Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, True Buying Window May Not Have Arrived Yet

Recently, the Bitcoin price fell below the key level highlighted in the October 31, 2025 report, confirming the downward trend. Comparing it to historical cycles, the magnitude and pace of this round's pullback closely resemble those of past bear market phases. Consequently, the market's focus of discussion has shifted from "whether the trend has reversed" to "when the next more worthwhile allocation window will arrive."

Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market starting point based on a cyclical framework on October 28, 2022, and projected on July 6, 2023, that this cycle's peak might reach $125,000. From late 2024 to around the interim high in October 2025, Bitcoin had repeatedly exhibited characteristics of the fifth bull market nearing its end; with the loss of the key level, the market has officially entered the bear market confirmation phase.

Against this backdrop, we assess the potential low-range corresponding time and price ranges by combining multiple quantitative models, including the one-year moving average, monthly Stochastic, and monthly RSI, to determine whether downside risks have been largely cleared and whether the market is beginning to accumulate conditions for a shift from weakness to strength.

After Falling Below the One-Year Moving Average, the Cycle Timeframe Begins Pointing to 2026

In November 2025, Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average. Historical experience shows this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases typically last about 12 months. By this calculation, the next bull market could start in Q4 2026, with the cycle low more likely occurring earlier in Q3 2026.

Observing from a broader perspective, we believe Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is not primarily driven by block reward halvings but is more likely synchronized with the rhythm of U.S. midterm election cycles. Historical data shows that the 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 midterm election cycles have all coincided with major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the volatility in regulation and political uncertainty brought by midterm elections better explains the timing distribution of Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms.

Technical Indicators Have Not Yet Reached Key Thresholds; Waiting for "Reversal Confirmation" to See a Bottom

Technically, the monthly Stochastic indicator, across the past five cycles, often completed its bottoming process after falling below the 15% "deeply oversold" zone, followed by an upward reversal within the next 1–3 months, marking the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%, not yet reaching the critical threshold.

Similarly, the monthly RSI in historical cycles typically formed a key support zone around 48. True bottom signals often appeared during the reversal confirmation phase characterized by "first breaking below the key level, then turning upward." Currently, the RSI is around 50. Although close to the key zone, a clear "break-below-and-recover" structure has not yet emerged.

The two core indicators have not yet given clear bottom confirmation: the market still lacks the reversal confirmation corresponding to the "final round of concentrated liquidation."

Overall, the final low of this bear market may not have appeared yet. Historical experience shows Bitcoin more often completes its bottoming during phases of low trading volume, gradually receding selling pressure, and declining market participation. Rapid pullbacks accompanied by cascading liquidations and high-volume declines resemble interim capitulation sell-offs rather than the cycle's ultimate low.

From the dual perspectives of the political cycle framework and technical indicator validation, we are more inclined to believe that the truly worthwhile window for resuming allocation requires waiting for key monthly indicators to reach extreme zones followed by reversal confirmation. While the current price is approaching the range corresponding to historical lows, reversal signals have not yet appeared, requiring patience during the bear market's final stages. The prerequisite for orderly resumption of allocation is confirming the exhaustion of downward momentum, not merely judging a trend reversal based on price proximity to lows.

Some of the above viewpoints are from Matrix on Target, Contact Us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.