Prediction Market Competition Heats Up, Hyperliquid Enters Strongly with "Outcomes"
- Core Viewpoint: Hyperliquid has launched a new prediction market feature called "Outcomes," aiming to deeply financialize prediction markets by leveraging its high-performance underlying architecture and cross-margin sharing advantages, rather than simply replicating existing models.
- Key Elements:
- Outcomes employs a fully collateralized and non-linear settlement mechanism, eliminating liquidation risks and providing complex strategy-building capabilities similar to options.
- This feature is natively integrated into the Hyperliquid chain, allowing it to share margin with spot and perpetual contracts, enabling seamless strategy combination and liquidity interoperability.
- The Hyperliquid team is renowned for its extremely high efficiency, with a core team of approximately 11 people supporting a business with over $1.1 billion in annualized revenue.
- Analysts believe that even completely replacing Polymarket's trading volume would contribute only about 5% to Hyperliquid's revenue, highlighting the massive scale of its core perpetual contracts business.
- Hyperliquid's current valuation of approximately $7 billion is considered significantly undervalued compared to Polymarket's latest funding round valuation of $10 billion.
Original Author: Seed.eth, Bitpush News
Hyperliquid, which firmly holds the top position in the crypto derivatives track, is now attempting to extend its reach into another trillion-dollar market on the cusp of explosive growth: prediction markets.
Today, Hyperliquid officially announced the testing of a new feature called "Outcomes." This news directly ignited excitement in the secondary market, with its native token HYPE recording a gain of over 10% within 24 hours, breaking through the $30 mark.
At a time when Polymarket dominates on-chain traffic and Kalshi, in partnership with Coinbase, is capturing the compliant market, Hyperliquid's entry is far from a simple "bandwagon" move. Instead, it leverages its absolute advantage in native underlying performance to redefine the rules of the game.
What is Outcomes
According to the official HIP-4 proposal, Outcomes (Result Contracts) are not a simple betting interface. The key to their design lies in the following three core logics:
1. Fully Collateralized, No Liquidation Risk
Unlike leveraged perpetual contracts, Outcomes follow the principle of "what you can afford is what you can do." It employs full collateralization and settles within a fixed range. This means that regardless of market volatility, as long as the settlement date has not arrived, a trader's position will not face forced liquidation, fundamentally removing the risk of being liquidated.
2. Non-linear Settlement, Greater Strategic Flexibility
Outcomes introduces a non-linear settlement mechanism. For traders, this is akin to gaining a level of flexibility close to options. You can use it to construct more complex hedging instruments, no longer limited to simple binary "yes" or "no" bets, thereby opening up greater space for risk management and strategic combinations.
3. Native Integration, Unifying Liquidity
Outcomes will be deeply integrated into Hyperliquid's underlying chain, HyperCore, and priced in the native stablecoin USDH. More importantly, it will share cross-margin with the platform's existing spot and perpetual contracts. This means users can seamlessly connect multiple trading strategies within a single margin account, truly achieving interoperability and reuse of liquidity.
Multi-Party Fragmentation: Who Will Be the Final Winner in Prediction Markets?
The current prediction market is at its "1995 browser war" moment, forming four distinct business paths:
- Polymarket sells "opinions"; it's a barometer for social trends.
- Kalshi sells "compliance"; it attracts domestic US capital seeking to avoid legal risks.
- Coinbase is executing a "dimensional reduction strike," turning prediction markets into a mass-market consumer product through in-app features.
- Hyperliquid's logic is the most hardcore: it doesn't require you to click Yes or No on a webpage; it wants you to, while shorting BTC, conveniently buy an Outcomes contract for "non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations" to hedge against macro risks.
Right now, the community is most focused on the synergy between HIP-3 (Permissionless Listing) and HIP-4 (Outcomes).
Under this architecture, Hyperliquid's evolution path is clear: first, official deployment of "canonical markets" based on objective data sources (like interest rates, macroeconomic indicators), followed by enabling permissionless deployment.
Behind this strategy lies Hyperliquid's legendary team advantage. It's hard to imagine that this behemoth, with annualized revenue exceeding $1.1 billion and trading volume rivaling top-tier CEXs, is supported by a core team of only about 11 people. This "special forces" team, composed of Harvard and MIT alumni and elite professionals from top quantitative hedge funds, has created an astonishing efficiency of over $100 million in annualized revenue contribution per person. Precisely because the team is extremely lean and has short decision-making paths, Hyperliquid can iterate rapidly.
A senior DeFi observer commented: "Coinbase's entry validates the business model, but it's still centralized. Hyperliquid's Outcomes is challenging a proposition: the endgame of prediction markets is not social media, but financialization. When trading prediction outcomes becomes as smooth as buying and selling stocks and can share margin with futures, the imaginative space for on-chain finance truly opens up."
Is HYPE Severely Undervalued?
As the crypto options market matures, the Open Interest (OI) for Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets has surged to $1 billion, and the platform's total 24-hour trading volume has skyrocketed to $4.8 billion, hitting a new all-time high.
Regarding this strategic move, Blockworks researcher Shaunda Devens believes it further supports Hyperliquid's valuation upside.
Devens pointed out that even if HIP-4 captured 100% of Polymarket's trading volume, its contribution to Hyperliquid's revenue would only be about 5%.
This data seems surprising at first glance, but the underlying logic is that the perpetual contracts market (including the long-tail assets brought by HIP-3) is extremely large in scale. Devens argues that Hyperliquid's current valuation of approximately $7 billion is clearly in a state of significant undervaluation compared to Polymarket's latest round valuation of $10 billion (based on 2025 funding data). The launch of Outcomes primarily serves to complete a key piece in its comprehensive financial product matrix.
Despite the high market sentiment, it's important to note that Outcomes is currently still in the testnet phase, and a definitive timeline for mainnet launch has not been announced. However, with the explosion of the HyperEVM ecosystem, mainstream service providers like Kalshi or Crypto.com could theoretically migrate to run on the Hyperliquid chain using the HIP-4 protocol in the future.
In summary, prediction markets are entering their best era. In the US, thanks to advancing regulatory clarity, the partnership between Kalshi and Coinbase has already made prediction markets accessible across all 50 states. In the EU and Asia, similar growth momentum is equally strong. For Hyperliquid, Outcomes is far from a simple "gamble"; it is an indispensable piece of the puzzle in building the "Wall Street on-chain."
