Kalshi's Pre-Market Stock Price Soars, Is It Still Time to Buy?
- Core View: The prediction market industry is experiencing explosive growth. Leading platform Kalshi, with its regulatory compliance advantages and astonishing business growth rate, has seen its pre-IPO stock in the pre-market become a focal point for capital.
- Key Elements:
- Rapid Industry Growth: The total trading volume of prediction markets is projected to exceed $50 billion in 2025. In November 2025 alone, the combined monthly trading volume of leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket approached $10 billion.
- Kalshi's Stellar Performance: Kalshi's annual trading volume reached $23.8 billion in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 12 times. Its monthly trading volume for January 2026 is expected to surpass $9 billion, indicating an astonishing growth rate.
- High Capital Valuations: Kalshi's valuation reached $11 billion after its latest funding round, while Polymarket's valuation stands between $9-15 billion, demonstrating strong capital recognition.
- Clear IPO Expectations: Kalshi's compliant status makes its IPO prospects clear. Its stock has seen a 21.7% increase over the past 30 days on pre-market trading platforms like PreStocks.
- Market Pricing Divergence: Traditional financial markets (e.g., Nasdaq Private Market) price Kalshi stock around $307-357, while cryptocurrency pre-market platforms (e.g., PreStocks) price it higher, around $407-450.
Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
The scale, trading volume, and other data of prediction markets are still growing rapidly. The IPO pre-market of leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has also attracted a certain degree of market attention and liquidity. According to data from the PreStocks platform, Kalshi's pre-market stock price has surged by 21.7% in the past 30 days, far exceeding the gains of mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH over the past month.
Before the IPO cake is served, the Pre-IPO sector might be a battleground suitable for more people to participate in early. This article by Odaily will analyze whether the prediction market stock pre-market is worth a heavy bet from the perspectives of industry track, platform data, and capital valuation.
Behind the Judgment of "Prediction Markets Still Have 100x Upside Potential": Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion in 2025
Last August, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, boldly claimed that "prediction market trading volume will grow 100-fold".
At that time, the "twin giants of prediction markets," Polymarket and Kalshi, had not yet secured funding exceeding $1 billion, and their valuations were far from the $10 billion mark. The overall trading volume of prediction markets in July was less than $2 billion, nearly halved compared to the historical peak of over $4 billion in October 2024. The judgment of 100-fold growth seemed like nonsense.
But soon, in October 2025, Polymarket officially announced a $2 billion investment from ICE Group, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, with its valuation skyrocketing to $9 billion. It later sought a new round of financing at a valuation of $12-15 billion. Kalshi, on the other hand, completed two rounds of financing between October and December, with the latest round reaching $1 billion, led by Paradigm and participated in by Sequoia, a16z, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator, among others, valuing the company at $11 billion.
Behind the capital frenzy is the rapid and vigorous development of prediction markets.
According to data from our previously published article "2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Dual Giants Account for Over 97.5% Market Share":
- In September 2025, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $1.44 billion;
- In October 2025, prediction market trading volume reached $8.7 billion, with Kalshi leading and Polymarket following;
- In November 2025, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket approached $10 billion. Specifically, Kalshi's trading volume was $5.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 32%; Polymarket's trading volume was $3.74 billion, a month-on-month increase of 23.8%.
- In December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott stated that prediction market trading volume exceeded $13 billion in November 2025, more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election.
Thus, in just a few months, the overall monthly trading volume of prediction markets increased by about 6 times. From this perspective, 100-fold growth is not out of reach.
After all, 100 times $2 billion is only $200 billion. Compared to the total trading volume of over $50 billion for prediction markets in 2025, it only requires a 4-fold increase. Behind such rapid growth is the meteoric rise of Kalshi, a compliant prediction market platform in the United States.
Kalshi Poised to Become the "Leading Stock in Prediction Markets": 2025 Trading Volume Nearly $24 Billion, January Volume Expected to Reach $9 Billion
The emphasis on Kalshi's "compliant status in the US market" is because, based on its various licenses and compliance preparations, the door to an IPO is easier to push open for Kalshi. Furthermore, as a pioneer in the prediction market platform space founded in 2018 (Odaily Note: The platform officially launched in July 2021, slightly later than Polymarket), Kalshi's business growth in recent years has been exceptionally impressive.
Kalshi's 2025 Report Card: Annual Trading Volume of $23.8 Billion, 97 Million Trades
KalshiData previously stated that all of Kalshi's metrics achieved record growth in 2025.
- In terms of notional trading volume, the annual total reached $23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1108%, approximately 12.1 times. December set a new monthly historical high of $6.38 billion, the 4th week of December set a new weekly historical high of $1.7 billion, and December 21st set a new daily historical high of $381.7 million.
- In terms of the number of trades, the annual total reached 97 million, a year-on-year increase of 1680%, approximately 17.8 times. December saw 27.67 million trades, the 4th week of December saw 7.6 million trades, and December 21st saw 1.5 million trades, all setting new historical highs.
After entering 2026, the growth of Kalshi's business data can be described as astonishing.
Kalshi's Business Surge: January 2026 Notional Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $9 Billion
On December 16, 2025, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that with the launch of the Combo feature, the platform's single-day trading volume reached a new historical high of $340 million;
On January 12, 2026, prediction market single-day trading volume grew to approximately $702 million, setting a new historical high; of which, Kalshi accounted for about $465 million, approximately two-thirds of the total, while Polymarket and Opinion together contributed about $100 million in trading volume.
On January 26, KalshiData stated that as of January 23, Kalshi's monthly notional trading volume was approximately $6.7 billion, with a daily average trading volume of about $293 million. If the current pace is maintained, Kalshi's notional trading volume for January is expected to reach approximately $9.1 billion.
It is worth mentioning that last October, the overall prediction market trading volume was $8.7 billion, with Kalshi's market share around 45%-55%; now, the monthly trading volume of Kalshi alone exceeds the overall market size at that time. This reflects both the红利期红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利红利
