BitMart: Market Report for January 14
- Core View: Market sentiment is dominated by caution, with the crypto market lacking a clear trend.
- Key Factors:
- High uncertainty exists regarding macro policies and inflation outlook.
- BTC holdings are concentrated; selling pressure has eased but ETF funds are experiencing outflows.
- The market lacks a unified narrative, with sector performance being fragmented.
- Market Impact: Consolidation may continue in the short term, awaiting catalysts from macro developments and new narratives.
- Timeliness Note: Short-term impact.
On the macro front, there is significant market skepticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve's policy, particularly due to high uncertainty ahead of the May leadership transition. The market is deeply divided on whether the new chair will maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts (expecting 1-2 cuts this year) or implement substantial cuts (5-6 cuts). The market has already priced in no rate cut for January. Concurrently, December's CPI is expected to rebound due to base effects and changes in the calculation methodology for rent. Some views suggest core inflation could rise over the next 3-6 months, potentially reaching 4% by mid-year. Regarding employment, new job additions in 2025 are projected at 584,000, marking the weakest level for a non-recession year. However, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, indicating that businesses are improving production efficiency while slowing demand. Furthermore, the Trump administration has proposed purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to lower mortgage rates and further stimulate the housing market, a move that has pushed the 30-year mortgage rate below 6%. In terms of asset performance, gold and silver have performed best, while U.S. and Hong Kong stocks have been relatively weak. The combination of gold with U.S. stocks/traditional risk assets remains a stable investment thesis, effectively hedging against volatility in risk assets.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) has concentrated positions in the $80,000 to $100,000 range. On-chain data shows realized profits are continuously declining, turnover is low, and selling pressure is gradually weakening. In the short term, BTC's rebound target may be around $99,000. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy made a significant purchase of 13,000 BTC, demonstrating continued institutional interest. However, BTC ETFs experienced outflows last week (approximately 7,500 BTC), while Ethereum (ETH) saw minor inflows, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. Currently, BTC's performance has decoupled from that of gold and silver; despite the large purchase news, BTC's price action has not followed the rise in gold and silver, suggesting market sentiment is not overly optimistic. In terms of on-chain narratives, there is currently a lack of a unified narrative like the AI sector, leading to fragmented market performance, with the Chinese meme sector performing relatively well. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase similar to June or July 2025, lacking a clear trend catalyst, and overall sentiment remains watchful.
