【Full Event Recap】US-Israel Joint Airstrikes on Iran, Retaliatory Actions Impact Entire Middle East

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched a large-scale military strike against Iran. The operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile systems, and military leadership, and publicly declared its intent to overthrow the current Iranian regime. The airstrikes covered multiple cities including Tehran and Isfahan. According to Israeli claims, Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed, and at least 200 people have died within Iran.

Iran immediately launched a large-scale retaliation, firing missiles and drones at Israel and seven Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, and announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The iconic Fairmont Hotel on Palm Jumeirah in Dubai caught fire from missile interception debris, the Burj Khalifa was urgently evacuated, and several Middle Eastern countries closed their airspace. It is reported that both Khamenei and the Iranian President have been relocated to secure locations. The EU, Oman, and other countries have called for restraint, with the international community widely concerned that this conflict will escalate into a full-scale regional war.

Background: Long-standing Grievances Reach a Boiling Point

Since late December 2025, Iran has witnessed the largest nationwide protest wave since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The trigger was the continued collapse of the Iranian rial and the worsening economic crisis. The demonstrations quickly spread to over a hundred cities, with some citizens openly calling for the regime's overthrow. The Iranian government responded with violent suppression, with death toll estimates ranging widely from 3,000 to 32,000.

Simultaneously, diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate. In January 2026, U.S. President Trump publicly voiced support for the Iranian protesters and announced the deployment of a large-scale naval force to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers. On February 6, indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran were held in Muscat, Oman. However, just hours before the attack, the Omani Foreign Minister still stated that the talks had made "significant progress."

On February 24, in his State of the Union address, Trump accused Iran of "restarting its nuclear weapons program" and claimed Iran was developing long-range missiles capable of threatening the U.S. mainland, warning that America would act if necessary. It is understood that Israel's operation had been secretly planned for months, with the specific launch date determined weeks in advance, and Iran was not notified prior to the attack.

U.S.-Israel Alliance Launches Large-Scale Airstrikes

On the morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026 (local time), Israel and the United States jointly launched a large-scale military strike against Iran. Israel named the operation "Operation Roaring Lion," while the U.S. Department of Defense designated it "Operation Epic Fury." The attack commenced on the first day of the Iranian work week, with millions of Iranians caught in the airstrikes while commuting to work or taking children to school.

Targets included multiple cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The U.S. focused on Iranian ballistic missile facilities and nuclear program-related targets, while Israel targeted Iran's military and political leadership. Reports indicate that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's official residence in Tehran was directly hit by seven missiles, with satellite imagery showing severe damage to the complex. Israeli military officials claimed several senior Iranian officials were killed in the initial strikes, though final confirmation is pending.

Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghi stated that both Khamenei and President Pezeshkian had been safely relocated to a secret location and were unharmed. However, according to a senior Israeli official, "Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has died in Israel's airstrikes on Iran," while Reuters reported that Khamenei's body had been found. As of publication, both sides maintain conflicting narratives.

In an eight-minute video posted on Truth Social, Trump announced that the U.S. had initiated a "major combat operation" against Iran, with the goals of "eliminating the direct threat the Iranian regime poses to the American people," "destroying Iran's missile industry," and stating the intent to "completely eliminate" the Iranian navy. He also addressed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), urging them to lay down their arms in exchange for "full immunity." Trump further addressed the Iranian people, saying: "Your moment of freedom has arrived... When we are finished, take over your government, it will belong to you. This may be your only chance in generations."

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the joint strike operation would continue for "as long as it takes." Unlike the limited strike in June 2025, this operation is expected to last for several days. Iranian state media, citing Red Cross data, reported that at least 201 people had been killed in attacks across 24 provinces as of the time of reporting.

Iran Launches Comprehensive Retaliation, Multiple Middle Eastern Countries Affected

Iran immediately launched retaliatory strikes, firing a large number of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and multiple Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that "all Israeli and American military targets in the Middle East have been powerfully struck by Iranian missiles" and stated that "the operation will continue without pause until the enemy is completely defeated."

In Israel, air raid sirens sounded in multiple locations, with explosions reported in northern regions. Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system densely intercepted incoming missiles over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

In the Persian Gulf region, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE confirmed missile impacts; Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Qatar stated they had successfully intercepted incoming missiles. The Bahraini government confirmed that Manama, the location of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters, was hit by a missile and condemned the act as a "blatant violation of Bahrain's sovereignty." An Iranian drone struck a civilian residential building near the Bahraini capital, with footage showing the building engulfed in flames.

Traces left by air defense systems and penetrating missiles in the skies over Israel. Source: AFP

The IRGC also fired missiles at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. Simultaneously, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced they would resume attacks in the Red Sea. Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC announcing via radio broadcast a ban on all vessel traffic. The Middle Eastern airspace subsequently fell into paralysis, with Iran, Israel, Iraq, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, and others closing their airspace, leading to the cancellation of approximately 24% of flights to and from the region.

Dubai's Palm Jumeirah Hit by Missile Debris, Burj Khalifa Urgently Evacuated

In Iran's comprehensive retaliatory action, Dubai's iconic landmark, Palm Jumeirah, became a shocking global focal point. Although the Palm was not directly hit by an Iranian missile, after the UAE's air defense system successfully intercepted an Iranian missile in the waters near Palm Jumeirah, debris from the destroyed missile scattered onto the Palm area, igniting a fire in a building at the five-star Fairmont The Palm hotel.

Eyewitnesses described an extremely chaotic scene, with thick black smoke billowing from the hotel direction and multiple ambulances rushing to the scene with sirens blaring. Several Chinese individuals captured the scene on Xiaohongshu.

The hotel after the strike. Source: X

Earlier that day, the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, was urgently evacuated due to security concerns. Abu Dhabi residents received emergency alerts on their phones instructing them to stay away from windows and immediately seek shelter in a safe location, as the city hosts the U.S. Al Dhafra Air Base, making it a prime target for Iranian strikes. The UAE Ministry of Defense announced that its air defense systems had intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones "with high efficiency" and condemned such attacks as "a blatant violation of national sovereignty and international law."

Polymarket Probabilities Skyrocket, Bets Exceed Thirty Million Dollars

The outbreak of this military action left an extremely rare, historic trajectory on prediction markets. Multiple related markets on Polymarket experienced near-vertical price surges immediately following today's airstrikes, with price curves shooting almost straight to the top.

In the market for "Will Khamenei step down as Supreme Leader before March 31?" the probability, which had long hovered around 20% to 30%, suddenly skyrocketed to 95% following today's airstrikes, a single-day increase of 87 percentage points. The total trading volume reached $29.31 million, indicating a massive influx of capital betting on regime change after the airstrike news broke.

Another longer-term market, "Will the Iranian regime fall before June 30?" also experienced剧烈波动, with the probability jumping sharply from around 16% to 55%, a single-day increase of 39 percentage points, with a trading volume of $2.37 million.

Screenshot of Polymarket markets. Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, the probability for markets related to "Will the U.S. strike Iran?" has risen to 100% and entered the settlement process, with all short positions betting against a strike being liquidated.

Odaily will continue to track the latest developments and bring you reports as they happen.