ETH Staking Data Reversal: Exits Cleared vs. Entries Surge by 1.3 Million, When to Buy the Dip?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)

On January 7th, the staking exit queue under Ethereum's Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism officially cleared. At least from on-chain data, the exit pressure that persisted for months has finally been fully digested, with no new large-scale redemption requests observed currently.

Simultaneously, the size of the staking entry queue has seen a significant increase. The current queued amount has risen to approximately 1.3044 million ETH, with a waiting time of about 22 days and 15 hours. This situation is almost a complete reversal compared to mid-September last year.

At that time, the ETH price was around a phase high of $4,700, and market sentiment was exuberant. However, the staking side showed a different attitude: 2.66 million ETH chose to exit staking, and the exit queue wait time once exceeded 40 days. In the following three and a half months, the ETH price dropped by about 34%, falling from $4,700 to $3,100.

Now, after a deep price correction, the exit queue has finally been fully digested.

Is the Staking Queue a "Sentiment Indicator," But Not a Price Signal?

Typically, changes in the validator queue are seen as an important barometer for observing market sentiment. The underlying logic is that Ethereum's PoS, to ensure consensus stability, does not allow nodes to enter or exit arbitrarily. Instead, it regulates the pace of staking and exit actions through a flow control mechanism.

Therefore, when the ETH price is in a high phase, exit demand tends to accumulate. Some stakers may choose to realize profits. However, the potential selling pressure is not released instantly but is "stretched out" on-chain through the exit queue. When exit demand gradually dries up or is fully digested, it may indicate that a round of structural selling pressure is coming to an end.

From this perspective, the clearing of this round's exit queue, coupled with the simultaneous rise in the entry queue, indeed constitutes a noteworthy change. However, I believe that while this change superficially forms a positive resonance, its "influence" on market prices is not equivalent to the "high exit, low entry" phase in September. This is because ETH entering the staking queue does not equate to "new funds actively buying ETH at the moment." A significant portion of the chips entering staking likely completed their accumulation in earlier stages and are merely choosing to reallocate at the current time. Therefore, the rise in the staking queue reflects more of a shift in preference for long-term returns, network security, and the stability of staking rewards, rather than a significant increase in immediate price demand. This also means that the improvement in the current queue structure leans more towards expectation repair rather than exerting an equally strong push on short-term prices.

Nevertheless, the significant growth in the current staking entry queue is still worth attention. The primary driving force behind it comes from BitMine, the largest DAT treasury company for Ethereum. CryptoQuant data shows that BitMine has staked approximately 771,000 ETH in the past two weeks, accounting for 18.6% of its roughly 4.14 million ETH holdings.

This implies that the shift in this staking trend is driven by asset allocation actions of a single large institution, rather than a synchronized recovery in overall market risk appetite. Therefore, it cannot be simply interpreted as a "return of comprehensive bullish sentiment." However, in an emerging market like crypto, where liquidity distribution is uneven, the actions of large institutions are often more likely to, and can more easily, provide a certain degree of sentiment support and expectation repair to the market in the short term.

Whether this trend can persist or spread to a broader range of participants remains to be seen over time. But from on-chain fundamental data, multiple core indicators of Ethereum are simultaneously showing signs of marginal improvement.

From "Staking Changes" to "Coordinated Fundamental Improvement"

First, in the developer dimension, Ethereum's development activity is hitting record highs. Data shows that in Q4 2025, Ethereum deployed approximately 8.7 million smart contracts, setting a new historical record for a single quarter. This change is closer to continuous product and infrastructure development rather than short-term speculative behavior. More contract deployments mean more DApps, RWAs, stablecoins, and infrastructure are being launched, and Ethereum's role as the core execution and settlement layer continues to strengthen.

In the stablecoin sector, the on-chain transfer volume of stablecoins on Ethereum in Q4 exceeded $8 trillion, also setting a historical record. In terms of issuance structure, Ethereum's dominance in the stablecoin ecosystem remains significant. Data shows that Ethereum's share of on-chain stablecoin issuance is as high as 54.18%, far exceeding other mainstream blockchain networks like TRON (26.07%), Solana (5.03%), and BSC (4.74%).

Simultaneously, Ethereum Gas fees have hit their lowest levels since the mainnet launch and continue to break records. At certain times, Gas fees have even fallen below 0.03 Gwei. Considering that Ethereum will continue to advance block scaling this year, this trend has room to continue in the medium term. Lower transaction costs directly reduce the barrier to on-chain activity and provide a practical foundation for the continued expansion of the application layer.

Looking at the exchange balance metric, Ethereum's potential selling pressure is also at low levels. In mid-December, Ethereum's exchange supply dropped to 12.7 million, the lowest level since 2016. Particularly since August 2025, this metric has seen a significant decline of over 25%. Although exchange balances have slightly increased recently, the increment is only about 200,000 ETH, and the overall level remains in a historically low range, indicating weak selling意愿 among traders.

Furthermore, crypto KOL rip.eth recently pointed out on platform X that, judging from the gap between Total Value Locked (TVL) and market capitalization, Ethereum might be the most undervalued blockchain network currently. Data shows that Ethereum hosts 59% of the crypto market's TVL, but its token ETH's market cap share is only about 14%. For comparison, Solana's token market cap / TVL ratio is 3% / 7%, Tron's is 1% / 3.7%, and BNB Chain's is 4.5% / 5.5%. This reflects, to some extent, that there is still a significant misalignment between ETH's valuation and the scale of economic activity it supports.

Conclusion

Overall, changes in the staking queue may not be the "single variable" determining price trends. However, when it improves in sync with multiple indicators like developer activity, stablecoin usage scale, transaction costs, and exchange balances, what emerges is no longer an isolated signal but a more three-dimensional picture of fundamentals.

For Ethereum, this may not be a sentiment-driven rapid reversal but rather a process where the system is gradually restoring structural stability after undergoing a deep adjustment.