Matrixport Market Insights: Crypto Market Repair Window Opens, Structure and Sentiment Warm Simultaneously

As the market turbulence at the end of 2025 gradually subsided, crypto assets kicked off 2026 with a positive recovery rally in the first week. Both BTC and ETH recorded significant gains, with market sentiment and on-chain structures showing signs of recovery from year-end pressures. This article will analyze the current market phase by combining the macro backdrop, on-chain data, and derivatives market structure.

From a macro perspective, the core trading logic for the market remains the shift in global liquidity expectations. The Federal Reserve continued its rate-cutting path in 2025, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75% by year-end. The sustained cooling of inflation and the job market has created the possibility for further monetary policy easing in 2026.

Although geopolitical events at the beginning of the year (such as the situation in Venezuela) once triggered brief risk-off sentiment, the market quickly digested them as short-term emotional disturbances and did not constitute a driver for a trend reversal. Overall, the relatively benign macro policy outlook has created favorable external conditions for the crypto market's recovery.

Market Performance: Tax-Loss Selling Pressure Subsides, Capital Inflows Drive Price Recovery

In the first week of the year, BTC and ETH showed a clear recovery-driven uptrend. BTC rebounded from around 88,000 USDT to above 92,000 USDT, with a year-to-date return of approximately +5%; ETH gained about +6% over the same period. This movement is the result of three converging forces:

• End of Holidays: Trading activity returned to normal, restoring market liquidity.
• Tax-Loss Selling Pressure Subsides: The concentrated year-end selling pressure from U.S. investors realizing capital losses for tax purposes, which was released in December, significantly weakened at the start of the new year. Historical data shows that markets often rebound following the end of such selling pressure.
• Capital Inflows: New allocation funds and buying interest from the Asian time zone actively entered the market, absorbing the year-end sell-side pressure and pushing prices higher from the post-pullback consolidation range.

On-Chain Insights: Signs of Supply Tightening and Capital Inflows

Changes in on-chain data provide micro-level evidence for the market's stabilization and recovery: Continued Decline in Exchange Balances: Both BTC and ETH have seen sustained net outflows from centralized exchanges, tightening the supply of readily tradable tokens in circulation and reducing potential concentrated selling pressure; Stablecoin Supply Rebounds: The total market capitalization of major stablecoins has resumed an upward trajectory, indicating a more ample supply of "ammunition" available on-chain to purchase crypto assets, providing liquidity support for the market; Recovery in On-Chain Activity: The daily active address counts on the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks have rebounded at the start of the year, reflecting a gradual recovery in user participation and market sentiment.

Derivatives Signals: Sentiment Shifts from Defensive to Tentatively Offensive

Changes in the derivatives market structure clearly reveal the shift in market sentiment: Implied Volatility (IV) at Low Levels: Short-term option IV has fallen to near two-year lows, indicating low market expectations for extreme volatility in the near term and a trend towards stable sentiment; Significant Repair in Skew Structure: The 25Δ skew in the options market has rapidly converged, with BTC's skew turning from negative to positive. This means demand for downside protection (put option premium) has weakened, while demand for chasing upside (call option premium) has begun to heat up, shifting market sentiment from defensive to bullish; Concentrated Open Interest (OI) Distribution: A large number of option open interest positions are concentrated around key price levels near the current spot price (e.g., the $90,000 and $100,000 zones for BTC), which will become important psychological and technical battle lines in the short term.

Product Strategy: Adapting to Market Phase, Optimizing Risk-Return

Given the current market's characteristics of "recovery and consolidation, awaiting directional clarity," investors can choose suitable structured product tools based on their own views.

• Expecting Consolidation: If expecting the market to continue range-bound consolidation, strategies like FCN/Dual Currency can be considered, aiming to earn fixed coupons by "selling volatility" within a specific price range, suitable for phases where volatility is retreating from highs.
• Bullish but Buying on Dips: If long-term bullish but unwilling to chase highs, a discounted Accumulator allows for automatic, staggered purchases at preset lower price levels, with knock-out conditions to control upside risk, suitable for phased accumulation.
• Bullish or Hedging: For those holding spot and wishing to take profits in batches on the upside, or needing to hedge short-term risks, Decumulator/Covered Call strategies can be considered. The former allows for automatic, staggered selling, while the latter can enhance spot yield and partially lock in a selling price.
• Need for Liquidity: For those requiring financing but unwilling to bear margin call risks, Non-Recourse Financing can provide low-interest liquidity without margin call risk, suitable for long-term holders.

In summary, the current market is in a recovery phase following the year-end pullback. Improved macro liquidity expectations, tightening micro on-chain supply, and warming derivatives market sentiment collectively form a bullish-leaning market structure. However, prices have rebounded near key resistance zones. Whether the market can initiate a new trend still depends on observing a decisive breakout above these important resistance levels.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management. This article represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.