2026, Survive: A Bear Market Survival and Counterattack Handbook for Crypto Enthusiasts

Original article by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

In April of this year, Trump's first "tariff trade war" triggered a flash crash in the crypto market. In my article , "The Crypto Era of Chaos Begins: 13 Suggestions for Your Reference," I systematically outlined my predictions for the market's subsequent trajectory and corresponding strategies. Most of my predictions have come true, including TACO trading, the stablecoin craze, the investment boom, timely stop-loss orders, and the rebound of older cryptocurrencies fueled by AI.

As we approach the end of 2025, the crypto market has once again fallen into a stalemate of fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000. As I mentioned in my previous article, "If This Continues, Nobody Will Trade Crypto Anymore," the number of active investors in the market is visibly decreasing, and new investors are not flocking in as in previous years.

In light of this, as a seasoned investor who has weathered four bull and bear markets, I would like to attempt to answer that eternal question from my own perspective: "What should we do now?" (Odaily note: The following content is for learning and discussion purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please DOY for all trading operations.)

On the protracted battle in the crypto market: a dual approach of crypto and stocks is inevitable.

Last October, before Trump won the US election and before DAT became a phenomenon in the industry, we had already compiled a detailed list of the top 25 listed companies holding BTC in our article "A Quick Look at the Top 25 Listed Companies' BTC Holdings: Finding the Secret to Success in 'Dual Cultivation of Crypto and Stocks'" .

Looking back a year later, some listed companies have experienced dramatic ups and downs in stock price and market value, such as Strategy (MicroStrategy), the leading BTC treasury company, and Metaplanet, Japan's "first BTC treasury stock." Some listed crypto mining companies have also made great efforts to transform and seek a second business curve, such as Riot, Hut8, and CleanSpark. Meitu, on the other hand, chose to sell off its holdings in a timely manner to lock in the profits from its BTC reserves.

If in the past, listed companies chose to "dual-track cryptocurrency and stock trading" as a means to diversify risks, resist inflation, and tell new stories to the capital market, then at the end of 2025 and as we approach 2026, dual-track cryptocurrency and stock trading has gradually become a "must-learn investment course" for individual investors, including retail investors.

Upon closer examination, I believe there are three main reasons:

First, the continued rise of the US stock market and the AI bubble have attracted a large amount of liquidity. For capital, funds and resources that value efficiency, the US stock market and even the global stock market are the investment stage with the best depth, the largest capacity and the highest efficiency.

Secondly, the development of stock tokenization platforms, stablecoins, and the PayFi sector has further bridged the gap between TradeFi and DeFi. Crypto natives who are proficient in on-chain investment and trading have more opportunities, more channels, and lower barriers to access high-quality assets and investment targets worldwide than ever before. The entry and exit of funds are also more convenient, further compressing the market space of altcoins.

Third, the DAT narratives surrounding BTC, ETH, and SOL treasuries have become ineffective. Aside from existing leading companies, whether crypto-related stocks, including Circle and Bullish, can establish a foothold in the capital market depends primarily on the buying power of stock exchanges applying for tokenized trading (such as Nasdaq), existing individual investors in the stock market, and retail investors entering the stock market from the cryptocurrency market. Following the AI sector, the crypto sector still has a certain "market dream rate" expectation. Of course, this doesn't mean you should buy crypto-related stocks now. On the contrary, entering the market at opportune moments, taking advantage of positive news to profit from rebounds, is a better option.

Therefore, one can either enter the stock market through brokerage channels, leveraging their previous experience in cryptocurrency trading ("News Trading") and cognitive advantages such as the ripple-like thinking path mentioned in our article "Analysis of the Four Layers of Collateral Impact of CZ's Pardon by Trump" to profit from the stock market; or utilize the leverage advantage of stock tokenization platforms, such as MSX.com ( invitation code available ), xStocks, and ONDO Global Market, to experiment with low-leverage long-short strategies, explore trading routes that suit their risk appetite and tolerance, and pursue their own "second spring" in the stock market.

If the cryptocurrency market is in a bear market, then make money in the stock market; if the stock market is sluggish, then dig for gold in the cryptocurrency market.

For those in the cryptocurrency world who navigate various market trends, knowing what's popular, what's a hot trend, and what has meme attributes is both routine and essential knowledge.

Impact of medium- to long-term macro-political tensions: Precious metals may continue to rise.

Since Trump took office this year, the political and economic situation in various regions of the world has become increasingly complex, with alternating hot and cold wars in some areas. The global macroeconomic environment may remain tense for the next 5-10 years.

Leaving aside other issues, the events following the Russia-Ukraine war, including the Israeli-Hamas conflict, the US-Venezuela dispute, and the cooling of relations in East Asia, have all had varying degrees of impact on the global economic situation, some faster, some slower, some deeper. Previously, Bitcoin (BTC) was often considered a safe-haven asset, but after BTC spot ETFs were included in the US stock market, mainstream cryptocurrencies have also been affected, becoming "assets absorbed by the US stock market." Against this backdrop, we can make a slightly bold prediction: precious metals, including gold, silver, palladium, and platinum, may continue to rise; and non-ferrous metals such as copper, lithium, and lead, as important strategic resources, may also see some price increases.

Furthermore, considering that giants in the commercial aviation and artificial intelligence fields such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will be going public next year, the price of chip resources for tech giants such as Nvidia, Google, and Amazon will rise further, and their upstream supply chain-related listed companies and raw material suppliers will all become part of the "rising chain".

The recent rise in A-share sectors such as semiconductors and satellite aviation has already shown early signs of this trend; the development of the robotics industry and the IPOs of related leading companies will also indirectly boost the further exploration of mineral resources and energy industries and create stronger demand.

In conclusion, although gold mines are frequently discovered in China and news of the discovery of mega-gold mines breaks out from time to time, in the medium to long term, precious metals such as gold and mineral resources such as non-ferrous metals remain the "hard currency" in resource circulation.

For those in the cryptocurrency world, just like with BTC, they can either invest regularly or leverage tokenized assets, either with low leverage or by directly buying the corresponding token.

Neutral investment solutions remain a market necessity: combining returns from pledged assets, lending, and regular investment.

In the face of a volatile and downward-trending crypto market, seeking a more neutral investment solution may be a more prudent "defensive strategy" compared to an "offensive strategy" of going long or short with high leverage.

In this regard, I personally believe that for those in the crypto world other than small investors like myself with only 10 USDT, a three-pronged defensive strategy of "staking + lending + dollar-cost averaging" can be adopted to weather the current bear market and prepare to access funds at any time to welcome the next bull market after institutional and traditional financial market investors enter.

Besides staking mainstream coins on exchanges, you can also choose to stake ETH and SOL ecosystem applications for returns. Of course, just like the series of DeFi collapses and liquidations caused by the "10.11 crash", you need to do your homework when selecting specific projects and platforms to avoid unnecessary principal losses.

Lending yields, as the most stable cornerstone of the DeFi space, have remained the largest lending protocol on Ethereum and even in the entire crypto market, despite recent price fluctuations caused by the conflict of interest between DAOs and Labs. The platform successfully withstood the extreme black swan event of the "October 11th crash," operating normally and generating substantial revenue amidst the liquidation wave. Furthermore, Kamino, within the Solana ecosystem, has also demonstrated relatively stable operation and can be considered for further reference.

Besides mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, centralized exchanges (CEXs) including Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget regularly offer investment opportunities. Previous examples include Plasma's (XPL) $250 million deposit promotion and USDC deposit subsidies, which yielded significant returns. Binance's recent USD1 deposit promotion even offers annualized returns of around 20%, which is quite impressive. OKX's recent NIGHT token investment program has also been very profitable for many. The more sluggish the market, the more exchange promotions and subsidies resemble traditional "crypto project airdrops," representing one of the few high-yield investment opportunities that must be participated in. Most importantly, most CEXs have a certain level of financial backing, ensuring their funds are not lost in the event of unforeseen circumstances or security incidents.

In short, the prerequisite for staying at the poker table is to ensure that you have a certain ability to make money outside the game, while also building more resilient and diversified income channels within the game. You cannot pin all your hopes for returns and profits on high-risk assets.

Predicting the market is more worth betting on: Polymarket's token launch will be the next milestone.

Based on Kalshi's recent launch of various features, its alliance with platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood to form a prediction market consortium, and its plan to hold the first prediction market conference next March , prediction markets are becoming another important force "capable of getting by" besides cryptocurrency, AI, and internet technology giants.

With the favorable timing of next year's World Cup, the US midterm elections, and a series of sporting events, the market's monthly trading volume is expected to increase tenfold next year (Odaily Planet Daily note: the latest news shows that the November trading volume of the forecast market exceeded US$13 billion, which is more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election) to nearly US$100 billion.

Similar to the NFT craze, which fueled a surge in NFT buying tools, Mint websites and trading platforms, and the rise of on-chain Perp DEXs like Hyperliquid, tool websites such as Hyperbot and HyperInsight experienced a traffic boom. Aside from those based on the "selling shovels" approach to create "prediction market copy trading tools" and "AI agent prediction market betting agents," ordinary players should focus on two main strategies:

One strategy is to "buy early," which involves betting on the option with a higher probability of success and then selling the corresponding shares after the probability increases to lock in profits. Of course, this also requires a certain level of understanding from the investor, as well as an grasp of market sentiment and news.

Secondly, there's the "follow the big brother" approach, which involves selecting high-quality investors, conducting cross-validation and A/B testing, and building your own copy trading system and betting decision-making logic. Of course, this also carries certain risks, so position allocation and timing of exits still require hands-on experience and practice.

Compared to the two approaches above, "sweeping the end of the day" seems safer, but it's ultimately a "penny-pincher" approach, easily wiped out by unexpected upsets. I don't recommend allocating too much capital to it, and I especially don't recommend going all-in like some whales do. After all, whales can simply delete their accounts and start over if they lose, but ordinary people like us don't have that many opportunities to go all-in and try again.

Conclusion: AI will become a personal assistant; the x402 protocol has more to offer in the future.

Not long ago, Solana officially launched the @x402 account , clearly placing the development of the x402 protocol in its own ecosystem at a higher priority. With the issuance of stablecoins still growing at a rate of billions or even tens of billions per month, PayFi, stablecoins, and AI payment concepts will remain among the crypto themes next year.

At that time, just like the "AI OS" jointly launched by Doubao and ZTE recently, it will penetrate into all aspects of life, work, politics, and economy in a more profound way, and its combination with cryptocurrency will be spearheaded by the x402 protocol. Combined with news such as Trip.com opening stablecoin payment windows in parts of Southeast Asia, the AI payment concept may give rise to another token worth tens of billions.

2026, survive, see you next year.

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