Matrixport Research: Four-Year Cycle Turning Point Signals Emerge, Bitcoin Enters Structural Adjustment Phase

As institutional participation continues to increase, the market has seen disagreement about whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has become invalid. However, before key technologies and macroeconomic signals are fully validated, we still need to return to the cycle itself and assess whether the market has shifted from an upward phase to a correction phase. Historical experience shows that even if market structure changes, the cyclical rhythm often does not disappear but continues in a more complex form. The key to this round of market movement lies not in short-term fluctuations, but in whether Bitcoin has deviated from its existing cyclical trajectory.

Slowing demand and technical breakdown: a cluster of cyclical downturn signals emerge.

The core driver of Bitcoin's cyclical movements is not the halving event itself, but rather the changes in demand expansion and contraction. Historically, once demand growth slows, Bitcoin often enters a bear market. In the current market, the continued selling by miners and early holders has largely offset the structural incremental funds brought in by ETFs and corporate treasuries, resulting in decreased market volatility and a significant decline in risk appetite.

From a technical perspective, a key cyclical signal has clearly emerged. Bitcoin's monthly closing price has fallen below its 12-month moving average, a phenomenon first observed in November 2025. Historically, this signal has often marked the end of a bull market and the beginning of a correction. Previously, Bitcoin rebounded above this moving average in December 2022, initiating the current bull market; the recent breach of the moving average reinforces the assessment of a cyclical downtrend.

The political and liquidity cycles dominate the rhythm: the pressure of the midterm elections cannot be ignored.

From a higher-level cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is highly synchronized with the US political and liquidity cycles. Historical data shows that midterm election years are typically the period of greatest market pressure during a presidential cycle. As political uncertainty rises, liquidity tightens, and risk appetite declines, risk assets often come under pressure in advance.

This pattern is particularly evident in Bitcoin's history. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks in years associated with midterm elections. In the current cycle, the macroeconomic environment surrounding the 2026 midterm elections is already showing signs of pressure through factors such as rising unemployment and limited policy space. Historical experience suggests that at this stage, interest rate cuts often fail to immediately support risk assets; their positive effects typically only materialize after growth has stabilized.

Overall, multiple cyclical and structural signals are simultaneously pointing to Bitcoin entering a correction phase. Slowing demand momentum, the breach of key technical levels, and the convergence of political and liquidity cycles have significantly complicated the market environment. Unlike past phases dominated solely by trends, the current market is shifting from a trend-driven model to one centered on rhythm and structure. In this context, volatility itself will become a new characteristic, providing a more cost-effective range for gradually building medium- to long-term positions before the next cycle begins.

The above viewpoints are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.