Matrixport Research: Ethereum upgrade brings structural improvements, and a rebound opportunity is emerging.

The current rebound in the crypto market is gradually unfolding, but its internal driving forces have become clearly divergent. Bitcoin continues its rebound, but remains within a bear market framework overall. Meanwhile, more structurally significant clues are increasingly pointing to Ethereum. Currently, BTC and ETH derivatives positions have both fallen to exceptionally low levels, indicating a rebalancing of positions and a significantly increased market sensitivity to new exposures. Against this backdrop, Ethereum's recent network upgrade has already had a substantial impact on its underlying economic structure, but these changes have not yet been fully priced in by the market, making it a more noteworthy trading theme at this stage.

With the portfolio restructuring complete, the market is more sensitive to new funds.

From a position structure perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum futures open interest are currently at historically low levels. This indicates that previously accumulated long and short exposures have significantly decreased, and the overall market leverage structure has been compressed. In a similar position rebalancing environment, price volatility is often amplified rapidly once new directional funds begin to enter. Earlier this year, under similar position conditions, Ethereum triggered a surge of approximately 38% in a short period. This familiar structure is now reappearing, providing the necessary conditions for a phase of rebound.

The upgrade effect is gradually emerging, and Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in the short term.

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's recent network upgrade directly improved its operational efficiency, cost structure, and L1 and L2 scalability, further strengthening its economic attributes as a gas, collateral asset, and core DeFi asset. Historical experience shows that improved network efficiency often leads to higher on-chain activity levels, ultimately translating into structural demand for ETH. Following the last upgrade, ETH not only saw a significant price increase, but its futures open interest also surged from approximately $8 billion to $16 billion. Currently, although treasury-style buying by Ethereum-related companies is more scattered than before, 35.8% of trading in the options market still comes from call option purchases, indicating that some traders have begun to reposition themselves for an upward move. From a price path perspective, ETH still has room to advance towards the $3,300–$3,500 range, making participating in the rebound through call spread strategies a relatively clear risk-reward choice.

Overall, this rebound should be viewed as a tactical opportunity within a bear market environment, rather than a trend reversal. As long as Bitcoin's price remains below its 21-week moving average, its upward movement remains a rebound, not a structural bull market. Comparatively, greater upside potential is concentrated on Ethereum. Position rebalancing coupled with upgraded variables provides ETH with a better short-term risk-reward structure, but this window depends on trading decisions rather than long-term trend judgments. For investors, the key at this stage is to seize the tactical opportunities arising from structural improvements, rather than betting on the start of a new cycle.

The above viewpoints are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.