R2 Macroeconomic Outlook and Asset Allocation Framework

TL;DR

• With geopolitical risks rising, the baseline scenario for markets remains high volatility.
• Global liquidity has not yet shifted to an easing trend, and safe-haven assets are outperforming.
• Short-duration US Treasury bonds and private credit assets offer the best risk-return structure currently available.
• BTC/ETH is a long-term asset allocation, but positions should be kept prudent.
• Altcoins / High Beta Crypto Assets: 0% allocation recommended at this stage.

Executive Overview

The global market in 2025 will exhibit greater structural uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, global liquidity instability, and the breakdown of the traditional crypto cycle will collectively propel the market into a phase of more persistent volatility and more dispersed outcomes.

In this environment, the importance of capital preservation, liquidity management, and stable returns has increased significantly, far exceeding that of directional betting or high-beta speculation.

R2's transparent and verifiable on-chain yield products align perfectly with current investors' demands for stability and security.

This report will outline the key macroeconomic factors we are focusing on and provide an updated asset allocation framework for the current environment.

1. Macro-environmental assessment

1.1 Geopolitical Risks: The Resurgence of Tensions in Multiple Regions

Two geopolitical lines are having a significant impact on global markets:

Venezuela

The United States' designation of Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) provides a legal basis for potential military intervention. However, this is still in the preparatory stage and does not mean that conflict is imminent.

Market impact:

• Energy market risk premium rises
• Increased short-term volatility in risky assets
• Increased demand for short-duration safe assets (T-Bills, MMF)

This is a fluctuating event, not a signal of a systemic crisis.

Japan-Taiwan-China

Japan has recently made a significant change in its official rhetoric, viewing a conflict with Taiwan as a national security threat, which has significantly increased the long-term geopolitical risk premium in the Asian region.

This move does not mean that war is imminent, but it foreshadows a more fragile regional balance.

Market impact:

• Asian asset risk premiums rise
• Continued demand for US duration assets and dollar liquidity
• Suppression of risk appetite during periods of geopolitical tension

1.2 Liquidity and Interest Rates: Uncertainty Remains Prominent

Global liquidity has not yet entered a clear easing cycle.

The core features include:

• Core inflation remains sticky.
• The US fiscal deficit is at a multi-decade high.
• Credit market financing costs have risen significantly.
• The US dollar is highly liquid but unstable.

Against this backdrop, short-duration U.S. Treasuries continue to offer the most attractive risk-adjusted yields globally (4–5%).

1.3 Crypto Market Structure: Entering a New Paradigm

The crypto market has deviated from the previous operating logic of "4-year halving cycle".

BTC/ETH:

• ETF funds have become the main source of demand.
• Structural decline in volatility
• The US technology sector is highly correlated with interest rates.
• Increasingly exhibiting characteristics of macro-level high-beta assets, rather than independent cyclical assets.

Altcoins:

• Liquidity is severely fragmented
• High FDV supply surplus
• Weak secondary demand
• Institutional participation is extremely low

The result is the emergence of localized micro-cycles, rather than a comprehensive market trend resembling the previous one.

2. Macroscopic judgment of R²

Based on the current macroeconomic environment, R2 draws the following conclusions:

1. Volatility remains the dominant theme in the market, with uncertainties surrounding both geopolitics and liquidity.
2. Global liquidity has not yet supported a broad risk appetite, and the risk-reward ratio for high-beta crypto assets is weak.
3. Short-duration fixed-income assets offer the best balance between safety and return.
4. Transparent returns backed by real assets will outperform speculative narratives.
5. Demand for on-chain, verifiable, collateralized yield products continues to increase.

3. R2 Asset Allocation Framework

This configuration framework aims to balance the following objectives:

• Capital preservation
• Liquidity
• Stable income
• Controlled long-term growth exposure
• Reduce pullbacks under geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks

3.1 Core defense configuration (70–80%)

Short-term U.S. Treasury bonds/money market funds (40–50%)

The world's safest and most liquid asset. Effectively buffers against volatility caused by geopolitical or macroeconomic events.

Institutional-grade private equity credit (30–40%)

For example, high-quality short-duration, senior, and collateralized private placement credits (such as Apollo). These offer 6–10% annualized, low-volatility, and low-correlation returns to stabilize the overall portfolio's cash flow.

3.2 Growth potential allocation (10–20%)

BTC / ETH (10–20%)

It remains a core long-term asset of the digital economy, but positions should be controlled during periods of macroeconomic fragility.

It is a structural long-term allocation, not a short-term gamble.

3.3 High-risk allocation (0%)

Altcoins / Venture Capital / High Beta Crypto Assets (0%)

Given the current fragmented liquidity and unfavorable market structure, allocation is not recommended.

The weight should be maintained at 0% until there is a substantial improvement in global liquidity.

4. The reason why the configuration framework will remain effective for the next few months.

This configuration is built on three principles:

1. Liquidity First

Short-duration US Treasury bonds perform well during shocks and offer flexibility.

2. Stable and verifiable returns

Private credit and on-chain T-Bill strategies can provide low volatility and reliable returns, independent of market narratives.

3. Controlled long-term growth exposure

Properly allocating BTC/ETH can maintain long-term potential returns while reducing the probability of drawdowns.

5. R2's role in the current environment

R2 offers investors:

• Tokenized T-Bill (Tokenized U.S. Treasury Bonds)
• Private placement credit-backed yield
• Completely transparent on-chain interest distribution
• A real-return alternative with lower volatility compared to speculative crypto assets

In market cycles dominated by uncertainty, investors are increasingly focusing on:

Security, liquidity, transparency, and verifiable real returns.

This is precisely the core value of R2.

in conclusion

The current environment is more suitable for building the following investment portfolios:

• High liquidity
• High security
• Mild growth exposure
• Reduce the risk of high-beta speculation

Recommended configuration structure:

• 50% → Short-term U.S. Treasury bonds
• 35% → Stable returns from private equity credit
• 15% → BTC/ETH
• 0% → High Beta Crypto Assets

This combination can provide upside opportunities for future macroeconomic improvement while maintaining resilience.

R2 will continue to track changes in the macro environment and update configuration recommendations as necessary.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an invitation to invest, or a recommendation for any form of financial product. All investment activities involve risks, and decisions should be made based on the investor's own objectives, risk tolerance, and independent judgment.