Polymarket in Action: A Complete Guide to Finding and Following "Smart Money"

Original article | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜Golem ( @web3_golem )

Polymarket has become the most popular prediction market, with both monthly active traders and new monthly accounts reaching record highs in October. According to Dune data, Polymarket had 471,000 active traders and 440,000 new accounts in October. This impressive performance is likely due to Polymarket's confirmation in October of its token launch and airdrop, attracting a large number of players looking to profit from the token's potential.

However, simply viewing Polymarket as the next big money-maker in the cryptocurrency world underestimates the potential for players to make money on Polymarket. According to official rankings, thousands of users earn tens of thousands of dollars every month on Polymarket, and there are even traders who have earned millions of dollars. The reason for their success is invariably that they have risk-controlled strategies and sufficient knowledge of a particular area.

You might ask, if you don't watch sports like the NBA and know nothing about politics, is it impossible to make money by betting in the prediction market? That might be true in traditional prediction markets, but the emergence of Polymarket has changed everything.

Thanks to the transparency of blockchain technology, we can now easily observe the profitability of all Polymarket accounts and identify traders with high win rates and substantial profits in specific areas. We can call them "oracles," or, following the popular terminology of the past meme markets, "smart money."

After I discovered that the end-of-day strategy was not the right approach for ordinary users to make money in the market prediction ( related reading: 95% win rate, still losing money: I've stepped into the trap of the end-of-day "financial management" in the market prediction for you ) , I turned to studying Polymarket's copy trading smart money strategy.

In this article, I will introduce several outstanding Polymarket smart money accounts in the sports, crypto, and political sectors for readers' reference. These accounts can be found directly on Polymarket. These three sectors are the most popular prediction categories on Polymarket, and therefore the sectors that generate the most smart money. Finally, I will share my thoughts on Polymarket copy trading strategies at the end of the article.

Smart money in sports

Sports competitions are a broad category on Polymarket, encompassing numerous major global sporting events such as the NBA, League of Legends (LOL), and the NHL. While all are sports competitions, there are significant differences between different sports events. A player with in-depth knowledge of the NBA may not have the same level of understanding of LOL; experience and knowledge are largely not transferable. Therefore, when selecting smart money, we should also adhere to the standard of high win rates in specific events.

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 (NBA, CFB, NFL Smart Money)

• Total number of predicted matches: 3935
• Total profit: $344,000
• NBA winning percentage: 75%
• CFB win rate: 77.1%
• NFL winning percentage: 82.7%

This account placed a total of 3,935 bets on Polymarket with an overall win rate of 71.1%. This trader, who joined Polymarket in February 2025, not only boasts a high win rate but also demonstrates versatility. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they bet on 612 NBA games with a 75% win rate; 597 CFB games with a 77.1% win rate; and 214 NFL games with an 82.7% win rate.

Looking at his account data, his win rate is quite good even with hundreds of sports bets placed. However, this trader's style involves adjusting positions based on the real-time situation of the matches, which may also be the reason for his high win rate.

S-Works (NBA, NHL Smart Money)

• Total number of predicted matches: 6,487
• Total profit: $2.15 million
• NBA winning percentage: 64.9%
• NHL winning percentage: 59.4%

This account placed a total of 6,487 bets on Polymarket with an overall win rate of 67.3%. The trader joined Polymarket in August 2024. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they bet on 1,128 NBA games with a win rate of 64.9% and on 620 NHL games with a win rate of 59.4%.

This trader typically doesn't bet on which team will win a specific game, but rather profits from the price surge driven by low-probability events. For example, they might bet on a team winning the championship at 1 cent and then sell when the price rises to 10 cents.

RN1 (NFL, CFB Smart Money)

• Total number of predicted matches: 7,313
• Total profit: $1.21 million
• NFL winning percentage: 79.4%
• CFB win rate: 62%

This account placed a total of 7,313 bets on Polymarket with an overall win rate of 59.2%. The trader joined Polymarket in December 2024. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they bet on 548 CFB games with a win rate of 62% and on 165 NFL games with a win rate of 79.4%.

This trader is a typical hedger, frequently betting on both sides and adjusting their positions during the game. However, their preferred winning strategy can still be discerned by the size of their position across different tracks.

Mayuravarma (CBF Smart Money)

• Total number of predicted matches: 103
• Total profit: $2.14 million
• CFB win rate: 68.2%

This account placed 103 bets on Polymarket with an overall win rate of 56.7%. The trader joined Polymarket in October 2025 and earned $2.14 million in just one month. However, with only 103 bets, it shouldn't be considered a smart money analysis subject, as fewer bets imply a greater element of luck. Mayuravarma, on the other hand, placed 22 bets on CFB with a win rate of 68.2%.

Mayuravarma is one of the hottest traders recently. He bets large sums of money, sometimes millions of dollars before a single game, and he never cuts his losses during the game. He has a win-or-lose style.

Smart money in the political arena

Political betting was the most popular category on Polymarket at the beginning, touted as having a higher degree of accuracy than polls, and it has indeed proven to be true in many major political events, most notably by being the first to predict that Trump would win the US presidential election in 2024.

Because of the significant information asymmetry in the political arena, Polymarket is prone to attracting many insider addresses. These should theoretically represent the "smartest" money, but an insider wouldn't be foolish enough to reuse the same address for insider betting, making them difficult to detect. However, Polymarket also has some high-win-rate addresses with expertise in politics; these are the smart money we can refer to.

HolyMoses7

• Total number of predicted matches: 2257
• Total profit: $90,000
• Areas of expertise: Geopolitics, the Middle East

This trader placed a total of 2,257 bets on Polymarket, including 676 in the political arena, with a win rate of 78%. Their expertise lies in geopolitics and Middle Eastern politics. According to Polymarket Analytics, their most profitable trade was predicting Nicusol Dan would win the Romanian presidential election, earning them over $24,000.

aenews2

• Total number of predicted matches: 1954
• Total profit: $1.46 million
• Areas of expertise: Trump-related, South Korea

This trader placed a total of 1,954 bets on Polymarket, including 625 in the political arena, with a win rate of 72.2%. Their expertise lies in trading related to the Trump administration, South Korean politics, and geopolitical events. According to Polymarket Analytics, their most profitable trade was predicting the presidential candidate of the People's Power Party (PPP) in South Korea, earning them over $1 million.

Anjun

• Total number of predicted matches: 8446
• Total profit: $795,000
• Areas of expertise: Trump-related

This trader placed a total of 8,446 bets on Polymarket, including 879 in the political arena, with a win rate of 64.2%. Their most successful bets were on Trump-related events; according to Polymarket Analytics, they placed 349 bets on Trump-related events with a win rate of 71.1%. However, their most profitable prediction was for the "highest-grossing film of 2025," for which they have already earned $58,000, even though the result is still pending.

Smart money in the crypto market

The crypto space is currently a major prediction category on Polymarket. Polymarket allows users to predict the price fluctuations of major cryptocurrencies like BTC over timeframes of 15 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day, and 1 month, as well as the token price after a project's launch. Regarding token price predictions, Polymarket is more like a futures market; there may not be any truly "smart money" involved. What we see are simply how traders perceive the upcoming market movements.

While information asymmetry exists in predicting events related to crypto projects, leading to the presence of insider addresses, similar to predictions in the political sphere, these insider addresses are unlikely to persist using the same address. Therefore, continuous observation and recording are impossible; tools are needed to monitor large or unusual bets on a single event. Below, we provide only two examples of smart money addresses in the crypto space for reference.

Anjun

• Crypto prediction session number: 301
• Win rate: 83.1%

Besides his expertise in political predictions, Anjun is also adept at cryptocurrency predictions. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, he placed 301 bets in the cryptocurrency space with a win rate of 83.1%, and almost all of his bets were on predictions of the price movements of tokens such as BTC.

kingofcoinflips

• Crypto prediction session number: 631
• Win rate: 58.2%

This trader focuses on predicting the price movements of tokens such as BTC, SOL, and ETH on Polymarket. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, he has made a total of 631 predictions, all of which involved token price predictions, with a win rate of 58.2%.

The most important aspect of copy trading smart money is risk management and comparative analysis.

In conclusion, I would also like to say that copying smart money trades on Polymarket is not 100% profitable. Many wallets are not suitable for copying, such as Mayuravarma. If a player does not have its capital size, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to make the same profits as it.

At the same time, even for traders with systematic and consistently positive EV (Earnings Per Transaction), we should not blindly follow their trades, especially for events with higher uncertainty such as sports competitions. This is because "smart money" does not equal "guaranteed winnings." Some traders may place bets on dozens of matches a day, sometimes losing most of them, or they may adjust their positions during the match. However, not following their trades completely or not following them promptly can still result in losses.

To improve the win rate of Polymarket copy trading strategies, players must conduct thorough risk management and comparative analysis. First, allocate positions based on your own capital. Second, compare bets from multiple "smart money" accounts on the same game. High overlap indicates consistent confidence in the outcome; disagreements facilitate adjustments to your copy trading positions.

The predictions made on Polymarkets are a manifestation of collective wisdom, as everyone makes the decisions they believe are most compelling due to their vested interests. However, it is still just a prediction. Therefore, we should view Polymarkets' smart money as a "think tank" for making our own predictions, and utilizing it properly will greatly improve our win rate on Polymarkets.

Finally, this article mainly focuses on my smart money screening approach and copy trading strategy. In terms of operation, I currently do everything manually, only using data tools such as Polymarket Analytics to assist in decision-making.

There are two reasons. First, Polymarket copy trading differs from Meme copy trading in that it doesn't have high requirements for trading speed. The probability of a certain event will remain at the same value for a long time, which is enough for us to analyze and compare the movements of smart money before placing an order. Second, most of the current Polymarket copy trading tools or trading tools are Telegram bots and are in the early stages of development. Considering security factors, I haven't used them either.

For more information on Polymarket's various tools, please refer to previous articles published by Odaily:

Odaily Picks: 8 Handy Prediction Market Trading Tools

Odaily Picks: Tools to Double Your Trading Success Rate in Predictive Markets