The "golden card of immunity" in the hands of the US president, whose fate will be changed if it is thrown out?

According to the latest revelations from the Wall Street Journal, former US President Trump signed a pardon on Thursday, freeing Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, from legal constraints. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt even declared, "The Biden administration's war on cryptocurrency is over!"

But has the war truly ended? Meanwhile, on the prediction market Polymarket, the odds of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the "culprit" behind FTX's downfall, being pardoned are steadily rising. The fates of these two crypto giants, like two intertwined ropes, unravel the complex game of industry and politics.

1. CZ’s amnesty: From undercurrents to the dust settling

On the surface, Trump's pardon order, signed on October 22 and announced today, is "breaking news." But if you look closely at the clues beneath the table, you'll find that the drama had already begun.

Small gestures, big signals: Social media's comeback preview

In mid-September, CZ quietly changed his social media profile from “ex@Binance” back to “@Binance.” For someone who had been “banned from managing Binance for life,” this move was undoubtedly a cryptic foreshadowing.

Market Sense: BNB's "Thaw" Craze

From September to October, several major U.S. crypto platforms, as if by agreement, gave the green light to Binance's native token BNB.

• Kraken launches BNB leverage trading
• Coinbase included it in its roadmap and launched it quickly.
• Robinhood also supports spot trading.

Gambler's Intuition: Polymarket's Odds Soar

On the prediction platform Polymarket, CZ's odds of a pardon soared to 64% in mid-October. Even after a dip, they remained around 45%, firmly securing the top spot on the "Trump 2025 Pardon List." Following the news, BNB surged from 1,083 USDT to 1,160 USDT, a 6.7% increase in 24 hours. More significantly, a presidential pardon could not only erase his prison sentence but also negate the "lifelong ban from managing Binance" mandated by the 2023 settlement agreement. This "get-out-of-jail-free" offer may prove more powerful than imagined.

But the story doesn't end there. The market has raised a more pointed question: "If CZ can be pardoned, what about SBF?"

SBF’s “Impossible” Odds: The Storm Behind the 12%

If CZ's pardon was "unexpected, but reasonable," then SBF's odds increase was "fantastic, but not entirely." On Polymarket, his pardon odds climbed from "almost zero" to 12%. While not a large number, it was enough to get the market's pulse racing.

Compared to CZ's pardon, SBF's fate appears even more uncertain. However, prediction market odds have quietly climbed—from virtually zero to 12%. While still low, it's significant enough to warrant attention. However, CZ's pardon has naturally sparked debate over whether SBF deserves similar treatment, with many arguing that it shouldn't.

Political Game: Why is there a possibility of SBF amnesty?

SBF was once a major financial backer in American politics, with close ties to numerous politicians. His donation list was once a microcosm of his political connections. Despite public outrage over his actions, the complex political game of pardon cannot be completely ruled out. Trump's team may, based on political considerations, use SBF's pardon as a step to restore trust in the crypto industry. After all, politics is never a black-and-white game, but rather a balancing act of interests.

Market speculation: the financial logic behind odds

On Polymarket, the rising odds for SBF's amnesty largely reflect the market's speculative nature. While the likelihood of it actually happening is low, the returns would be enormous if it were to materialize. This risk-reward gamble is inherent to the capital market.

Industry and public opposition: The severity of the crimes is incomparable

However, consensus within and outside the industry points in a different direction. Industry experts claim that a sentence of four months and 25 years is simply not comparable. Many have compared the severity of the two crimes, pointing out that CZ violated US anti-money laundering laws by allowing illicit funds to flow through Binance, while SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to launder money by misappropriating billions of dollars in client funds. CZ was sentenced to four months in prison, while SBF was sentenced to 25 years last year—the disparity in sentencing itself reflects the stark difference in the judicial characterization of the crimes.

Similarly, the founder of crypto law firm Hodder Law stated that CZ's crimes are far less serious than those of SBF or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon. She emphasized, "Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ has not been accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance is a legitimate exchange, and withdrawals have always functioned properly. His 'crimes' are related to compliance, not moral offenses."

The tension between Trump's statement and the political background

At a press conference on Thursday, when talking about CZ's pardon, Trump publicly stated that he was told that what Changpeng Zhao did "was not even a crime" and that he was "persecuted by the Biden administration." This statement provides a political narrative for CZ's pardon, but it is obviously not applicable to SBF. After all, CZ is a major supporter of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial crypto platform. Pardoning him is both industry-wide and politically beneficial. However, SBF's political label and public image make it difficult for a similar pardon narrative to stand up.

Summary: Odds are rising, but reality is hard to come by

While the odds of SBF's pardon have increased in the market, opposition from industry experts and public opinion has intensified. CZ's compliance issues and SBF's fraud conviction are fundamentally different in nature and impact. The dual political and public resistance makes SBF's pardon more of a market speculation "emotional lottery" than a policy spoiler.

3. Trump’s shift: The crypto community from “enemy” to “ally”?

Over the past few years, the crypto industry has been like a "problem teenager" in the United States, hamstrung by layers of regulation, including anti-money laundering and consumer protection. Trump's pardon, like a sledgehammer, has cracked open several cracks.

Attitude reversal: from suppression to embrace

"This isn't a crime at all." Trump's statement wasn't a legal ruling, but a political signal: the crypto industry is no longer a target, but a potential partner. Pardoning CZ is both a show of support for the industry and a response to Biden's policies.

Political leverage: Crypto’s voice surges

Behind the scenes of CZ's case and SBF's odds is the crypto industry's journey from the margins to center stage. This isn't just a technological story; it's also the intersection of votes and capital. Whoever captures the hearts and minds of this group will gain a significant political foothold.

Global Arena: The United States Does Not Want to Fall Behind

Europe's regulatory framework is well-established, and Asia has a substantial user base. If the US doesn't relent, technology and capital could be wiped out. Pardoning CZ is more like a declaration of "We won't give up."

Ending: Amnesty is the key, but what is behind the door?

Amnesty is just a key. Behind the door lies an unpaved road: rules to be determined, trust to be built, and innovation to be implemented. For encryption, this is not the end, but the beginning of reconstruction.

CZ's freedom means "we can talk again"; SBF's odds remind us "the price will be high." When politics puts crypto in the spotlight, victory or defeat is no longer determined solely by price, but by who can pave the way: a more transparent market, more stable compliance, and more secure user protections.

When the smoke clears, the test begins. It's not in the amnesty order, but in every new regulation, every compliant financing, and every project that dares to land in the United States.

As an investor, are you ready for a "new beginning"?