Compiled by TechFlow
Guest: Michael Saylor, Executive Director and Co-founder of Strategy
Moderator: George Mekhail, Managing Director, Bitcoin for Corporates
Podcast source: Bitcoin For Corporations
Original title: Michael Saylor: The Bitcoin Treasury Endgame - An Exclusive At-Home Interview
Air Date: September 30, 2025
Summary of key points
An exclusive, in-depth interview with Michael Saylor, exploring how Bitcoin is at the heart of global credit markets and shaping the future economy.
In the interview, Michael shared his vision for the future of Bitcoin: it will disrupt traditional capital models, redefine corporate balance sheets, and become the cornerstone of the 21st-century economy. From the rise of Bitcoin asset management companies to the development of Bitcoin-based credit instruments, this conversation comprehensively depicts the future of money, banking, and economic sovereignty.
Summary of highlights
- The value of Bitcoin will increase by an average of 29% per year over the next 20 years, reaching $2.1 million in 21 years.
- Cryptocurrency exchanges may more actively adopt Bitcoin reserve strategies.
- The best strategy for Bitcoin investment is direct investment. Rather than crowding out individuals, corporate participation has made those early believers in Bitcoin even richer.
- In the global capital market, Bitcoin is the best capital asset choice for companies. One day, every company will become a Bitcoin treasury company.
- If Bitcoin is to achieve widespread global adoption, companies, banks, exchanges, operators, cities, states, and even the federal government all need to get involved. We don’t want anyone to be left out.
- I believe that 95% of decision-makers in the financial world still don't truly understand the concepts of digital energy, digital capital, and digital currency. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing. If everyone agrees on an investment opportunity, it won't generate huge returns.
- The concept of Bitcoin as digital gold or digital capital is entirely new. If we accept Bitcoin as digital gold, then it can also be considered a form of digital capital. Any credit instrument backed by Bitcoin can be considered digital credit.
- Bitcoin Reserve competes with traditional credit and equity instruments in the capital markets by using Bitcoin as leverage or a monetary base to create higher-quality equity and credit instruments.
- Strategy's ideal option is to become a pure-play Bitcoin reserve company, focused on issuing equity and high-quality Bitcoin credit instruments.
- In the future, the Bitcoin network will develop into a tens-trillion-dollar ecosystem, and the total amount of digital credit may reach 10 trillion, 20 trillion, or even 100 trillion US dollars.
- The 20th-century banking network, credit system, and equity capital markets will undergo a radical transformation. Bitcoin will become the core cornerstone of digital credit, digital equity, digital banking, digital capital, and the digital economy of the 21st century, and the Bitcoin Reserve will serve as the engine driving this network's development.
- Our goal is to make this future so desirable that no one wants to be left out. Ultimately, everyone will have to choose between being “smart, fast, strong, and rich” and “dumb, slow, poor, and weak.”
- Following the Genius Act, the Clarity Act is expected to become the next major legislative issue. This bill may further regulate the legality of tokenized assets.
Bitcoin is hope
George Mekhail:
I'm delighted to be speaking with Michael Saylor today. You've said, "Bitcoin is hope." Could you share your vision for this "hope"? In what specific ways does Bitcoin's "hope" manifest? How will the lives of ordinary people change under the Bitcoin standard?
Michael Saylor:
Throughout human history, technology has been key to improving human life. One of the earliest technologies, fire, can be said to be a symbol of hope. Without it, humans would have frozen to death or starved to death. Subsequently, technological advancements led to the Bronze Age, the Iron Age, and the Steel Age.
The invention of the wheel was equally significant. Later, Rockefeller, through the commercialization and standardization of oil, gave humanity its first access to mechanical power. Today, a small trawler's engine boasts 70 horsepower, equivalent to the strength of 700 men, while large auxiliary vessels can reach 1,000 horsepower. This technology allows humans to utilize energy more efficiently, improving our lives.
Bitcoin is hope because it represents digital energy. It is a technology that enables the transfer of energy across cyberspace, and it is also the embodiment of digital property, digital capital, and digital gold. More fundamentally, Bitcoin is a tool for transferring energy across time and space, empowering 8 billion people, millions of businesses and institutions, and governments and local governments worldwide.
If fire is hope because it can shake off the cold, and electricity is hope because it allows you to climb skyscrapers, then Bitcoin is hope because it is a form of digital energy. It can transmit energy from one end of the earth to the other at the speed of light, solving personal or business problems. This technology represents a new stage in humanity's harnessing of energy, and it will greatly improve our quality of life.
George Mekhail:
As this shift occurs, we're moving towards the Bitcoin Standard, or what some are calling "hypermonetization." What signs do you see that this trend is happening?
Michael Saylor:
What we're really talking about is the integration of digital energy into civilization. So, what would you like to see? I think we can start with the fundamental application of digital energy as capital. Currently, the trend of listed companies re-capitalizing with Bitcoin is on the rise.
Our company was the first to do this in 2020, and then two or three followed, then ten, then twenty, and now there are over 180 companies using Bitcoin as a capital reserve. I predict that when we go from 100 to 1,000, then 10,000, and then 100,000, you'll know the world is accepting Bitcoin. As someone said, one day every company will be a Bitcoin treasury company.
So, companies recapitalizing in Bitcoin is one measure of adoption. I think another measure of adoption is the integration of Bitcoin support into software applications. Currently, you have apps that run on iPhones or Android phones, like the Cache app, that support Bitcoin, and there are wallets that support Bitcoin. But I look forward to the day when Apple integrates it into the iPhone, Google integrates it into the Android operating system, and Microsoft integrates it into the Microsoft operating system.
This is either going to be at the core of every consumer device operating system, or at the core of the hardware itself. I think it will be another very important sign that people start integrating Bitcoin support into all the hardware devices that are being distributed around the world.
George Mekhail:
You mentioned that you were new to the Bitcoin space five years ago. At the time, virtually no one knew you existed. And now, as you mentioned, you've become a leading figure in Bitcoin Treasury Companies. We've spoken with numerous executives from 14 different countries who are planning Bitcoin strategies. Many have mentioned their desire to become the Saylor of their respective countries. How do you see your role in this space? Do you consider yourself a leader in this movement?
Michael Saylor:
I believe we have a responsibility to set a good example for others, while also supporting and helping other market participants. We've tried many new things, conducted experiments, and strived to share our learnings. Since our entry into the Bitcoin space, we've sponsored Bitcoin Enterprise conferences and published operating manuals. We've open-sourced our approach and publicly released securities filings, detailing our actions and the lessons we've learned. I believe we have an obligation to highlight what works and what doesn't.
What I find encouraging about this movement is that the Bitcoin ecosystem is different from many traditional industries. In traditional industries, it's often a winner-take-all situation, like Walmart beating out most retailers, Amazon driving thousands of retailers out of business, and Apple replacing many device manufacturers. In the Bitcoin ecosystem, everyone has a chance to win.
This is because we all share a common value system and are all centered around Bitcoin, a fundamental asset. There is a finite supply of only 21 million Bitcoins, and everyone relies on the same Bitcoin network. Therefore, the growth and success of Bitcoin Treasury, and any company holding Bitcoin, positively impacts the entire Bitcoin network and other companies.
It's incredibly rewarding to see this industry continue to grow and develop. We're doing our part, but we're also seeing other companies making incredible contributions. Every day, new companies are trying different strategies, and I think we're all constantly learning. If certain strategies prove effective, they'll be adopted by more people; and if certain approaches don't work, we'll avoid repeating the same mistakes. As a result, this movement feels like a collaborative effort, with everyone contributing to the common advancement of the industry.
The process of doubts about Bitcoin and its social acceptance
George Mekhail:
I want to talk about FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and criticism. Some people may be skeptical of your work in the Bitcoin space, some even calling them "haters." Are there any particular criticisms or misconceptions you've been directed at that stand out?
Michael Saylor:
I believe that when an airplane flies at supersonic speeds, it creates shock waves and sonic booms. This is because the aircraft's speed exceeds the speed of sound through air, causing air molecules to be unable to transmit information in a timely manner, resulting in turbulence and noise. Similarly, Bitcoin's growth rate has exceeded society's ability to adapt.
Since 2011, Bitcoin has experienced numerous misunderstandings and skepticisms: in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021. When we entered the Bitcoin space in 2020, we were equally met with criticism. Our stock was only $10 at the time, and when it rose to $100, the criticisms continued; even when it fell back to $20, the criticisms didn't abate. Even when we held $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, some still criticized us for losing $1 billion. When we made $10 billion, the critics vanished, only to be replaced by a new wave of skeptics. Every rise in Bitcoin's price triggers a new wave of criticism and misunderstandings.
Even if Bitcoin rises to $100,000, $1 million, or even $2 million in the future, this misunderstanding and skepticism won't disappear; there will always be new FUD . Those who once mocked our losses will disappear, but new voices will question, "Is it reasonable to buy Bitcoin now? Will it fall even lower?" This is a typical social phenomenon: new ideas always take time to be accepted.
Historically, many paradigm shifts have experienced a long process of acceptance. For example, it took decades for electricity to become widespread; John D. Rockefeller was considered crazy for 30 years before becoming the world's richest man; and nuclear energy was misunderstood for nearly 50 years before its importance to AI data centers was recently recognized. Digital energy sources like Bitcoin will face similar skepticism and resistance.
It took 30 years for people to finally accept John D. Rockefeller as the world's richest man, going from dismissing him as crazy. When he became the world's richest man, people thought his legacy was over, but with the invention of the automobile, his wealth increased tenfold. This illustrates how society often takes a long time to accept new paradigm shifts. However, when we look back at developments over the past few decades, we see how natural these changes have become: the harnessing of fire, the spread of electricity, the invention of the wheel, the development of oil, and even the use of nuclear energy.
Take nuclear energy, for example. For the past 50 years, it was considered a dangerous technology, but only in recent years has people gradually recognized its importance. In the era of rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), nuclear energy is particularly considered critical for powering AI data centers. Failure to develop nuclear energy could hinder technological progress and even slow our progress in intelligent development. Despite being a clean, sustainable, and virtually inexhaustible energy source, it took humanity 60 years to gradually accept it.
Therefore, I'm not surprised that digital energy has been met with similar skepticism and criticism. Many people simply cannot grasp its potential. As physicist Max Planck said, "Science progresses with the funeral of a generation." He meant that the guardians of old ideas are generally intolerant of new ones. Only when a new generation of decision-makers emerges or the old generation passes away does society gradually embrace new ideas.
Sometimes, society needs to experience dramatic events or shocks before it can accept new things. For example, those who don't believe in airplanes only acknowledge their existence when they fly over their city and drop bombs overhead; those who don't believe in nuclear energy only realize its power after a nuclear weapon is detonated. Similarly, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and global economic turmoil have exposed the fragility of our monetary system and prompted us to rethink the potential of digital currency and digital energy.
Even so, I believe that 95% of decision-makers in the financial world still don't truly understand the concepts of digital energy, digital capital, and digital currency. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing. If everyone agrees on an investment opportunity, it won't generate huge returns. In fact, the key to achieving 10x or even 100x asset value growth lies in identifying opportunities that most people overlook.
Take investing during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic as an example. At the time, almost everyone believed buying Amazon stock was the best option, as it was clearly a necessity during the pandemic. However, it turned out to be one of the worst investments of the past five years. This shows us that a generally accepted investment opportunity often loses its potential for high returns.
George Mekhail:
Do you think there will be a tipping point where more people start to accept Bitcoin, as you just mentioned? It sounds like you've observed this trend. Or perhaps those skeptics who were skeptical five years ago are now being proven wrong. However, what you just mentioned is more about the traditional financial system . So, what do you think of the skepticism within the Bitcoin community? Does this skepticism surprise you, or is there something unique about it?
Michael Saylor:
The Bitcoin community is indeed a highly influential one, with a wide range of opinions. Some even consider Bitcoin to be "enemy currency." In fact, even before Bitcoin's inception, the entire community was filled with skepticism. It can be said that Bitcoin itself was born in an atmosphere of skepticism.
This skepticism is deeply embedded in Bitcoin's culture and ethos, fostering a skeptical attitude. For example, the "Kill your heroes" slogan emphasizes not trusting anyone but verifying everything yourself. Bitcoin's core philosophy is precisely "trust no one or any institution." If you try to answer the question: How can you design a protocol that doesn't require trust in any person, company, or government? You'll find it's a truly fascinating challenge. I believe this skepticism has its place.
But sometimes, this skepticism can also be a form of counterproductive idealism. The truth is, we do need to trust some things in life. For example, you need to trust the company that makes your airplanes, the company that makes your cars, and even your dentist. After all, you can't do your own appendectomy, right? So, at some point, we do need a certain amount of trust.
I believe a more mature view of Bitcoin isn't one of total trustlessness, but rather one that recognizes that Bitcoin's core value lies in the power of choice it offers. You can choose to trust a person or institution, and you can withdraw that trust at any time. For example, if you don't trust a particular government, you can move your Bitcoin to another country. If you trust a custodian, you can store your Bitcoin with them, and if that trust ever fades, you can always move it elsewhere. Even if you choose to hold your Bitcoin yourself, if you decide you can't handle it anymore, you can transfer custody to a family member. This flexibility is Bitcoin's core strength.
Bitcoin offers this option because it was born from a distrust of the traditional financial system. This distrust, skepticism, and critical attitude are integral to Bitcoin's culture. However, the technology's potential can only be fully unleashed through collaboration. Whether trusting a custodian, hardware manufacturer, or other service provider, this collaboration ultimately allows you to realize greater possibilities. Bitcoin is unique in that you can choose to withdraw this trust at any time, thereby protecting your property rights.
This option is also a powerful deterrent. Take gold, for example. A major reason for its failure was the difficulty of safekeeping. Looking back at the 1920s, when major countries around the world adopted the gold standard, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States all held significant gold reserves, but the vast majority were concentrated in London and New York. For example, France's gold was stored in the United Kingdom or the United States, while Germany's was stored in the United States. There's a famous story about Schock, President of the German Central Bank, who visited New York and met with Federal Reserve Governor Ben Strong. Ben Strong wanted to show him Germany's gold, so he took him to the basement of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, but they couldn't find any.
This story illustrates the difficulty of safekeeping gold and highlights the advantages of Bitcoin. As a digital asset, Bitcoin is not only easy to store but also offers greater choice and flexibility to individuals and institutions. This makes Bitcoin a more decentralized and reliable store of value than gold.
The moral of this story is that gold is so difficult to store that even a country like Germany couldn't find its gold, let alone ordinary people and businesses. This was one of the reasons for gold's ultimate failure—the slow and complex storage process meant that the property rights of individuals and businesses were always controlled by central institutions. Imagine if the entire world relied on gold as a basis for credit, and all the gold was stored in London and New York, especially New York. This centralized model would not actually allow 40 million companies and 400 million people around the world to truly own gold.
In contrast, Bitcoin is an asset that can be effectively controlled by individuals and businesses. While I advise idealists against trusting banks or corporations, it's undeniable that in its golden age, gold was so difficult to secure that no single company, not even a bank, could independently secure its own gold. If we enter a world with 40,000 banks acting as Bitcoin custodians, it would be a vast improvement from the highly centralized world of the past, with only six to eight gold custodians.
Therefore, I believe that the core value Bitcoin offers lies in the freedom of choice it provides people. I have no objection to banks accepting Bitcoin. In fact, if every country in the world were willing to accept Bitcoin and become its custodian, we would achieve a global system where 150 countries would jointly custody Bitcoin. This system would be more decentralized than the gold standard and could last for hundreds of years. Even in the most conservative scenario, if only banks and governments could custody Bitcoin, it would be 100 to 1,000 times more decentralized than the gold standard. If businesses were to participate, this number would increase to 10,000 times. And in a world where millions or even tens of millions of individuals could self-custody Bitcoin, the degree of decentralization would be hundreds or even thousands of times greater.
Therefore, I prefer to focus on the fact that , even in its worst-case scenario, today's decentralized monetary system is far more robust and fair than the gold standard of 100 years ago, and even at its best. This progress is remarkable, and it provides a more equitable and efficient foundation for the future financial system.
The Role of Governments and Institutions: Promoters of Bitcoin Globalization
George Mekhail:
The recent US government acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel has sparked widespread discussion in the community. Do you believe there is a connection between this equity strategy and the government's goal of becoming a global Bitcoin superpower?
Michael Saylor:
I believe the two are completely unrelated. When a government expresses its desire to become a global Bitcoin superpower, its goal is to promote Bitcoin adoption through policies and supportive measures. They want the banking system to fully support Bitcoin, offering loans, returns, and credit services; they want to promote Bitcoin trading; and they want tech giants like Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft to support Bitcoin. They also want more publicly traded companies to purchase Bitcoin, an increase in the number of institutional-grade custodial services, and Bitcoin-friendly tax and securities regulations. Furthermore, they hope that American financial companies like BlackRock and Coinbase will lead the world in digital asset and Bitcoin adoption.
George Mekhail:
However, some critics have raised concerns about whether holding large amounts of Bitcoin would have a negative impact on ordinary people and how to avoid marginalizing small users.
Michael Saylor:
Not really. When our firm began its involvement, the price of Bitcoin was $9,000 per unit, and it has now risen to $115,000. This increase is primarily due to our firm purchasing 3% of all Bitcoin, while institutions like BlackRock have purchased approximately 4%. Even so, 93% of all Bitcoins remain in individual hands, with a total value of nearly $2 trillion. This means that individuals who held Bitcoin before our firm's involvement have profited from it by $1.8 trillion. Therefore, far from crowding out individuals, corporate involvement has enriched those who believed in Bitcoin early on.
Individuals are free to decide how to use this wealth. For our company, if we could secure 5% of the Bitcoin network, the price of a single Bitcoin could reach $1 million. A higher percentage could even push the price to $10 million. Once we reach 7%, and if companies like BlackRock follow our lead, the price will rise even further. The remaining 85% of Bitcoin will remain in the hands of individuals.
In reality, companies are a crucial driving force in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Every company, every major purchase, injects momentum into the Bitcoin network. Without corporate participation, Bitcoin's price would likely remain stagnant around $5,000. Worse still, if companies chose to support alternative networks like Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, or Ethereum, Bitcoin's value could decline further, or even disappear. These companies could then lobby governments to change laws to support alternative networks, effectively excluding Bitcoin.
This is essentially a "protocol war," a competition to determine the future of currency. Winning this war requires the support of institutional capital and the participation of companies, as government policies decisively influence the flow of capital. Governments can restrict the flow of capital into a particular network through policies, or they can promote it through supportive policies. Therefore, the participation of companies and institutions is crucial to the future of Bitcoin.
Therefore, I believe companies play a crucial role in the Bitcoin ecosystem. They can protect individuals from the risk of Bitcoin assets being confiscated, the network shut down, or high taxes by hiring lobbyists, conducting marketing, and defending the Bitcoin network. Companies are Bitcoin's first line of defense, while miners provide the technical defense, leveraging energy and computing power to secure the network. Bitcoin treasury companies provide the economic defense, maintaining network stability through capital support. Bitcoin exchanges provide another technical defense, developing mobile apps and websites to facilitate Bitcoin circulation. We hope that these key players—exchanges, treasury companies, and miners—will thrive globally and be well-capitalized.
So I don't believe there's a conflict of interest between companies and individuals. This isn't a zero-sum game. If Bitcoin is to be widely adopted globally, companies, banks, exchanges, operators, cities, states, and even the federal government all need to be involved. We don't want anyone to be left out.
I'd like to conclude with an analogy: Bitcoin is like the English language. If you speak English and the most powerful people in the world also use it, would you be resentful? If the banks that control the world's wealth also offer services in English, would you feel they are taking away your language? Absolutely not. On the contrary, we want the rich, powerful, and influential to speak our language and adopt our protocol. If their actions could potentially harm you, you can identify and respond by understanding their language. Bitcoin is, at its core, a protocol. Ultimately , we want everyone to use it because it will make the world a better place, and you will benefit from it.
Bitcoin Reserve drives ecosystem development
George Mekhail:
Let's talk about Bitcoin treasury companies and their surge in Bitcoin adoption. While we've previously discussed how competition isn't a zero-sum game, we're still seeing some regional competition to gain an early lead in this space. What advice would you give to companies caught up in this competition for capital? What advice do you have for them?
Michael Saylor:
Let's start with the fundamentals of the industry. Bitcoin is the monetary foundation of the cryptoeconomy; it's digital gold. Looking back 3,000 years, for example, in the Greek historian Xenophon's The Persian Expeditions, the Athenians and Spartans distrusted each other, and neither side trusted the Persians. Yet, these hostile groups had one thing in common: they fought for gold. Why gold? Because around 600 BC, people widely believed that gold was valuable as a currency. Despite differences in beliefs and culture, they shared a common understanding of its value.
From the 17th century through much of the 20th century, the world economy revolved around gold. Countries issued gold-backed bonds, all of which were gold-backed credit instruments. These credit instruments historically cycled from the gold standard to its departure from the gold standard and back again. This gold-backed credit system lasted from the 18th century to the 20th century, until the US dollar left the gold standard in 1971. For centuries, gold remained the core of credit instruments until Satoshi Nakamoto invented Bitcoin. Initially, there was debate over Bitcoin's nature, but by 2025, global consensus had emerged: Bitcoin is digital gold.
In discussions on CNBC, Bitcoin was widely considered the monetary foundation of the cryptoeconomy, digital gold. While other cryptocurrencies may be viewed as digital silver, digital copper, or digital silicon, the history of Western civilization was not built on copper or silver. Gold's experiments as a currency were successful, while silver's attempts were short-lived. Today, we are transitioning from a metal-based monetary network to a cryptocurrency-based monetary network.
So, what exactly is Bitcoin Reserve? Here, we need to understand two important paradigm shifts: First, the concept of Bitcoin as digital gold or digital capital is completely new . In fact, this global consensus has likely only gradually formed in the past nine months. This also means that we can now issue credit instruments based on digital gold, or digital credit. Second, if we accept the view that Bitcoin is digital gold, then it can also be considered a form of digital capital. Any credit instrument backed by Bitcoin can be considered digital credit.
From a broader perspective, the true potential of Bitcoin Reserve companies lies in their potential to revolutionize existing equity and credit markets. Imagine I set up a company focused on Bitcoin investment and held $1 billion in Bitcoin assets. This would give me $1 billion in digital capital. I could issue digital credit based on this capital. This is like a traditional gold bank. If I own $1 billion in gold, I could issue $100 million in gold-backed credit notes. Then, I might wonder, why not issue $500 million, or even $1 billion in gold notes? This leverage effect would revolutionize capital markets. Following this logic, you'd quickly find that the collateralization ratio for gold notes could reach 5:1, meaning that $5 in gold-backed credit notes would correspond to only $1 in actual gold. This type of credit issuance is the foundation of the modern banking system. The strongest form of credit is one-to-one collateralization. This means that theoretically, $1 billion in Bitcoin could be used to issue $1 billion in Bitcoin credit notes, fully backed one-to-one.
So, what does this model replace? It's essentially replacing existing credit systems, such as loan credit secured by retail or commercial real estate, corporate credit based on cash flow, or fiat credit that relies on the government's promise to issue more money. These traditional credit instruments dominated the 20th century, totaling tens of trillions of dollars.
When we understand the operating model of Bitcoin treasury companies, we find their business logic quite compelling: accumulating substantial Bitcoin capital through equity financing, and then issuing credit instruments based on this Bitcoin. These instruments can range from bond-like credit instruments, convertible bonds, preferred stock, and even variable floating preferred stock. In other words, companies can issue various forms of credit based on Bitcoin, the "digital gold."
By issuing these credit instruments, companies effectively leverage capital. More importantly, as capital is leveraged, the company's equity is transformed into "digital equity," potentially far outperforming Bitcoin itself. So, who exactly are these Bitcoin reserve companies competing with? In reality, they aren't competing with each other, but with traditional credit and equity instruments in the capital markets. They use Bitcoin as leverage or a monetary base to create higher-quality equity and credit instruments. Against this backdrop, we can foresee rapid growth for these companies. If they can understand and apply this model, they will gain a significant competitive advantage.
The market offers enormous room for growth for giant companies. Take Meta Planet, for example. It has the potential to become not only the most valuable hotel company in the world, but also the most valuable company in Japan. While they are significantly smaller than us, that's not crucial. The key is that they aren't competing with us; they're competing with Japan's equity and yen-based credit markets. This creates a unique capital market environment.
Currently, these capital markets are waiting for the emergence of a giant company, and those focused on issuing digital credit could potentially achieve 100-fold growth. Therefore, we aren't competing with other Bitcoin reserve companies; rather, we're promoting and advocating for the concept of digital credit. Our goal is to drive the digital transformation of the credit market. If we can capture 1% of the market share, we could potentially sell $1 trillion in digital credit. Even just 1% success would have a massive impact.
It's worth noting that more than a dozen other companies in the US are also promoting digital credit, which is beneficial to us. We have 100 million retail investors, yet many in the Bitcoin community aren't even aware of products like Stretch (a floating-rate perpetual preferred stock launched by Strategy, designed to provide a cash-like instrument for investors seeking indirect Bitcoin exposure and stable returns). If we could offer a Bitcoin-backed bank account with a 10% yield, it would undoubtedly attract more investors. Furthermore, 100 other companies could replicate this model.
You might ask, does this squeeze our market share? Actually, no. What we're describing is a superior banking system. Instead of choosing the 2% or 3% yield offered by traditional fiat banks, you can choose the 10% yield offered by Bitcoin Reserve.
History illustrates this point. In 1920, the United States had approximately 25,000 banks, compared to only 5,000 today. So, in the future, there could be 5,000 Bitcoin reserve companies in the US. Wouldn't this impact us, and other companies, negatively impact us? This will continue until 50% of the global credit system transitions to a Bitcoin-based system. When the total amount of credit secured by Bitcoin reaches $100 trillion, the total size of the Bitcoin ecosystem will also reach trillions of dollars. This will not only transform an industry, but also a giant leap for the entire ecosystem, benefiting many companies.
So, who will ultimately lose out? The answer is those companies stuck in 20th-century credit issuance models. The credit products they issue lack sufficient collateral, suffer from poor liquidity, and offer low yields. These companies will gradually lose market share. Why would investors choose low-quality credit with illiquidity and a mere 4% yield over highly liquid credit products offering double or even triple returns and collateralization ratios of 10 times?
As a result, these outdated credit issuers will be eliminated from the market. Many of them are small, virtually unheard-of institutions, such as the 4,000 regional banks that once dominated the over-the-counter (OTC) market. The market share of these weak credit issuers will gradually decline, but this won't happen overnight; it's a process that will take decades, if not decades.
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, it's not easy to get yourself into trouble. However, excessive leverage through short-term, high-interest margin loans can still lead to problems. This type of leverage carries significant risk if you use your own assets as collateral. However, I believe publicly listed Bitcoin Reserve companies are unlikely to resort to such extreme measures, as the market won't allow them to achieve such high leverage.
Therefore, as long as Bitcoin Reserve chooses prudent financing methods, such as issuing long-term convertible bonds, preferred stocks, or even longer-term junk bonds, while holding Bitcoin as a core asset, their financial position will remain stable.
During the crypto winter, Bitcoin miners are often hardest hit. This is because they typically take out short-term loans of 12 or 18 months at high interest rates of 15%. These funds are used not to purchase Bitcoin but to purchase mining equipment. The value of mining equipment depreciates by 20% to 30% annually. If you use short-term loans to purchase assets that depreciate rapidly, financial problems are almost inevitable. Conversely, if you take out medium- or long-term loans and use them to purchase assets that appreciate by 30% to 60% annually, you will be in a more stable financial position.
Therefore, for a publicly traded Bitcoin reserve company to truly get into trouble, it would need to make very irresponsible decisions. Of course, there may be a few companies that have become financially unstable due to foolish behavior, but generally speaking, Bitcoin reserve companies can be divided into the following three categories:
The first category is companies focused on issuing digital credit, such as Meta Planet. These companies, which specialize in issuing equity and pure credit products, could achieve 100x or even 1,000x growth, becoming the next "MAG 7" stocks (the top companies with the fastest market capitalization growth). Their market capitalization could grow from $1 billion to $10 billion or even $1 trillion.
The second category is strong Bitcoin players. While they may not be the absolute market leaders, they play a significant role in the Bitcoin ecosystem. These companies are often involved in multiple businesses and are expected to achieve 10x or 20x growth. While their performance may not be as dazzling as the "MAG 7," it can still be very strong. They may purchase large amounts of Bitcoin and run a number of businesses simultaneously. While not exclusively focused on Bitcoin, they can still achieve strong performance.
Some companies purchase small amounts of Bitcoin while operating other businesses . Over time, these other businesses may stabilize, while the growth in Bitcoin's value supports the company's market capitalization. Therefore, while these companies won't lose money, their growth may only be around 2x to 4x because they aren't 100% focused on Bitcoin. The key to this lies in the management team's conviction and the business model they choose.
If you ask, "What kind of company do I want to be? " the ideal choice is a pure-play Bitcoin reserve company focused on issuing equity and high-quality Bitcoin credit instruments. You should strive to establish a presence in major markets such as the UK, France, Brazil, Norway, Japan, the US, Canada, Germany, and Italy. Local companies often have advantages in their home markets, including tax, regulatory, marketing, and cultural factors.
In these capital markets, you can offer credit products with the highest yields, yet these markets are rife with low- or even negative-yielding products. For example, in Switzerland, short-term funding yields are negative. We grew from $600 million to $120 billion (depending on the market capitalization) over five years, but we underwent 20 different credit issuances and incurred significant costs along the way. If you were starting from scratch today, you could skip the first four years of trial and error. The strategy I recommend is: first raise equity capital, purchase Bitcoin, and invest all of the funds in Bitcoin, then issue short-term, Bitcoin-backed credit instruments. This approach eliminates volatility and risk while offering investors a yield 500 basis points (5%) above the market risk-free rate.
You can build a company focused on a single credit and equity instrument and achieve rapid growth by repeating this model over and over again. In theory, you could accomplish what we did in a much shorter timeframe, perhaps in half or even a third of the time. The key lies in whether the company's leadership is charismatic and credible, and whether the brand is trustworthy and focused.
Bitcoin-driven credit market revolution
George Mekhail:
Is the ultimate goal you're describing about building a better banking system? Is that part of your strategic direction? Currently, these products exist, people can put their money to work, and they're excellent assets for the market. But is it just a matter of educating the public and making them aware of their existence? Or do we need to do more to foster their development?
Michael Saylor:
Yes, I believe the ultimate goal is to accumulate $1 trillion worth of Bitcoin, growing at 21% per year. This growth can then be accelerated by issuing more credit products. Ultimately, we hope to have $1 trillion in Bitcoin collateral, growing at 30% per year, while simultaneously issuing $100 billion in credit instruments annually, growing at 20% to 30% annually. These credit products will offer yields 200 to 400 basis points higher than traditional real estate mortgages, corporate bonds, or fiat-backed credit instruments.
This approach could revitalize credit markets, rather than forcing Swiss investors to continue accepting zero returns. Assuming half of the Swiss credit market were digitized, the zero yield could potentially rise to 200-300 basis points. This increase would not only raise risk-free rates but also alleviate financial repression, thereby improving the health of traditional credit markets. It would also provide Bitcoin investors with higher returns, perhaps as high as 3%.
A similar situation applies to the yen market. Ultimately, trillions of dollars in assets will see yields not of 50 basis points but of 300 to 400 basis points on average. Through these changes, the health and integrity of credit markets will be restored. This process will require collaboration among Bitcoin Reserve companies.
In the future, the Bitcoin network will grow into a multi-trillion dollar ecosystem, with the total volume of digital credit potentially reaching $10 trillion, $20 trillion, or even $100 trillion. If there were $100 trillion in digital credit, backed by $200 trillion in digital capital, this system would no longer be a traditional fractional banking system, but rather a model with 2x overcollateralization. This model would even outperform the top AAA-rated corporate bonds in the United States, which typically have only 2.5x overcollateralization.
As a result, these credit products will all be AAA investment-grade, with higher yields and greater transparency. I believe the ultimate goal is to reinvigorate and transform the credit market through Bitcoin, digital gold, and digital capital. Equity markets will also benefit and be revitalized. For example, companies like Meta Planet will be included in equity indices. Over time, every company in the S&P 500 index may hold Bitcoin. When these companies include Bitcoin in their portfolios, the S&P index will contain a significant portion of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin's value will grow at a rate of 21% annually.
In the future, companies will become healthier, and credit risk will be significantly reduced. Savings account yields will then significantly increase. I believe the 20th-century banking network, credit system, and equity capital markets will undergo a fundamental transformation. Bitcoin will become the core cornerstone of digital credit, digital equity, digital banking, digital capital, and the digital economy of the 21st century, and Bitcoin Reserve will serve as the engine driving this network's development.
We're in an era of innovation, a Cambrian explosion happening globally, with a constant stream of new ideas. South America and North America are adopting Bitcoin in different ways. In the future, Bitcoin will gradually appear on the balance sheets of insurance companies, banks, and tech companies. Reimagining insurance with Bitcoin as its core driver will revolutionize the industry and provide users with superior protection. Similarly, if your bank account is powered by Bitcoin instead of fiat currency, you might earn a 10.2% yield (1,020 basis points) when opening a money market account.
As the banking and insurance industries transform, and tech giants like Apple and Google promote Bitcoin through their global channels, we are poised for a digital transformation. This transformation will make the economy smarter and more efficient, increasing productivity tenfold or even a hundredfold. Those who successfully integrate into this digital economy will enjoy rapid growth and wealth accumulation, while those regions or countries left out risk being left behind and isolated. Our goal is to make this future so desirable that no one wants to be left out. Ultimately, everyone will have to choose between being "smart, fast, powerful, and rich" and "dumb, slow, poor, and weak."
George Mekhail:
So, do you foresee extending Bitcoin credit to institutions, sovereign states, or other pressured organizations in future strategies?
Michael Saylor:
We extend credit not by lending, but by issuing credit instruments. If a country wants a 10% return, they will choose to purchase our credit instruments rather than traditional products with a 3% yield. Our goal is to create credit, not lend it. We hope to issue not just $10 billion in credit, but $100 billion, or even $1 trillion, or even trillions of dollars. All of this credit will be backed by digital capital.
Bitcoin Reserve's future trends, opportunities, and market potential
George Mekhail:
We've just discussed different types of Bitcoin reserve companies, such as those focused solely on Bitcoin and those with significant operational businesses. Have you observed any trends or expectations for the future? What factors do you think are key? What areas should companies explore more in order to succeed?
Michael Saylor:
I believe that cryptocurrency exchanges may be more actively adopting Bitcoin reserve strategies, which is a good opportunity for them. For example, Gemini, Coinbase, and other platforms have become listed companies and may launch some interesting experiments in this area in the future.
Furthermore, I believe insurance companies, especially publicly listed ones, may gradually embrace digital capital. With their vast pool of capital to invest, they are well-positioned to transform their operations by adjusting their balance sheets. Financial institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, and Blackstone are also examples of innovation. As publicly listed companies, these companies have the opportunity to incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets. For example, BlackRock just launched the most successful ETF in history, and perhaps they would consider holding some Bitcoin as an asset. This presents a significant opportunity for them.
I also believe we'll see a growing number of innovative credit and equity instruments developed by participants familiar with the crypto economy. If these large companies don't take action, smaller startups will seize the opportunity to enter the market. For example, Coinbase fills the gap left by traditional banks' reluctance to custody Bitcoin. If insurance companies or cryptocurrency exchanges are reluctant to adopt Bitcoin, startups like Strike could quickly emerge and capture market share. Startups that have gone public and raised significant capital, in particular, will have significant potential if they can integrate this capital into wallets or credit products.
George Mekhail:
As the market evolves, the game theory dynamics become increasingly interesting. How do you envision the future, particularly if Bitcoin Reserve faces a significant market pullback, and whether there are opportunities for consolidation or M&A? In that scenario, would Bitcoin Reserve be the ultimate acquirer?
Michael Saylor:
My view is that Bitcoin's value will grow by an average of 29% annually over the next 21 years, reaching $2.1 million in 21 years. Therefore, I estimate Bitcoin's risk-free annual growth rate to be 29%. This means that even if I do nothing, I can still earn a 29% risk-free return. Any investment idea based on the Bitcoin network that offers an expected return exceeding 29%, plus a certain risk premium and other factors, is worth exploring.
Even considering the "diversification discount," it's still important to be aware of this when running a public company. If my company relied solely on Bitcoin as its sole source of risk and return, the business model would be very simple. By visiting our website, investors can view real-time Bitcoin volatility, annualized yield, and price data, and quickly calculate risk and credit spreads. The data is updated every 15 seconds, making the entire process simple and transparent.
If we choose to acquire another company, say one that's undervalued by 40%, investors might spend a significant amount of time determining whether the deal makes sense, perhaps even taking 10 years to verify. In this scenario, a previously transparent business becomes complex and opaque, leading investors to discount the company's value.
Therefore, the optimal strategy for investing in Bitcoin is direct investment. Imagine you're a publicly traded company with $1 billion in capital. You could choose to purchase $1 billion worth of Bitcoin at a lump sum price, and this asset has an average annual growth rate of 55%. In comparison, any investment with an annual growth rate of less than 30% would appear unattractive.
In my opinion, Bitcoin is the ideal M&A target. It's the world's leading digital currency network, projected to grow at an average annual rate of 30% over the next 20 years, and offers virtually no risk. Given this, why choose other investment options? Not only do these alternatives increase uncertainty, they can also introduce a "diversification discount." The assets of conglomerates often trade at a discount to net asset value because the market perceives their diversified investments as diluting the core business, a dilution that can distract the company's attention.
Therefore, while it is possible to acquire a Bitcoin reserve company that is below net asset value, this is not an option for us. There are many companies in the market that focus on mergers and acquisitions, such as private equity investors and conglomerates. Their business models allow them to acquire other companies rather than focusing on Bitcoin investment.
If you're a big believer in fiat, or any other investment philosophy, you might find that some companies' businesses are valued at less than the book value of their Bitcoin holdings. In this case, you might choose to acquire these companies to get their operating business for free while also capturing the value of Bitcoin. This strategy makes sense.
For example, you could acquire a loss-making retail company that holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. Another company might achieve profitability by cutting costs, optimizing its operations, and divesting its Bitcoin holdings, recognizing its value but not wanting to be involved in the retail sector. If a company's overall valuation is lower than the value of its Bitcoin holdings, it generally means the market considers its operations a liability. In contrast, I prefer to invest directly in Bitcoin, the world's leading digital asset, which is growing at 29% annually. My investors also favor this transparent and efficient investment approach over wasting capital on acquiring troubled businesses.
For pure-play Bitcoin companies, acquiring other Bitcoin reserve companies is unattractive. However, for private equity investors or conglomerates, such a transaction may make sense. Ultimately, the decision to pursue such a transaction depends on the company's cost of capital and strategic objectives. If you believe Bitcoin will grow at an average annual rate of 29% over the next 20 years, then investing directly in Bitcoin is clearly the superior option. For businesses with lower capital costs, acquiring Bitcoin-related assets remains an attractive strategy.
George Mekhail:
So, does buying Bitcoin work for all capital markets? Are there still untapped markets? For example, we haven't seen any substantial progress in Africa. Which markets do you think have the most potential right now? Are there any overlooked opportunities?
Michael Saylor:
In global capital markets, Bitcoin is the optimal capital asset for companies. In some countries, such as Cuba and North Korea, even though Bitcoin's use may be prohibited by law, it remains a superior option from an economic perspective. Bitcoin's appeal is particularly evident in Venezuela, Nigeria, and much of Africa, given its 55% annual growth rate and the potential for continued growth close to 30%.
In contrast, many other capital assets are either collapsing or pegged to the US dollar. In Africa, local currencies and credit systems are generally under pressure to depreciate. Therefore, every company should take advantage of Bitcoin.
The next question is, for investors in a publicly traded company, where can they maximize their returns? How can they achieve a 10x or even 100x return on equity investment? The answer often lies in mature but financially repressed capital markets. For example, Switzerland and Japan boast vast capital markets, with trillions of dollars in capital. Yet, risk-free interest rates in these markets are extremely low. For example, the yield on a one-month Treasury bill can be close to zero or even as low as 50 basis points, while Bitcoin offers an annualized return of up to 55%.
Therefore, in theory, any pure-play Bitcoin company in these markets, as well as any European market where risk is correlated to basis points, Switzerland, and Japan, are excellent markets. If the US risk-free rate were to fall to 200 basis points, this would be a significant boon for a US-based Bitcoin reserve company. In this scenario, the company could offer investors a 7% dividend yield while capturing 90% of long-term returns and 100% of short-term gains. Such a business model has enormous potential for profitability.
The future of asset tokenization
George Mekhail:
I wanted to talk about the "tokenization of the world," which seems to be a persistent trend. How do you think this trend will develop in the Bitcoin ecosystem? What assets might be tokenized next?
Michael Saylor:
The core idea is to enable everything to move at the speed of light. So why not tokenize the US dollar? Or even tokenize Bitcoin on the Lightning Network, or tokenize various assets in other ways. Everyone wants faster Bitcoin transfers, perhaps from seconds to milliseconds. To achieve this, tokenization can be implemented on Bitcoin's third-layer protocol. Furthermore, nearly all stocks and bonds can be tokenized. For example, BlackRock has already tokenized US Treasury bonds and some of its other financial instruments.
If Apple or Microsoft stock were tokenized, anyone could hold Apple shares, even on a Saturday afternoon in India. Tokenization can make capital markets more efficient, fair, fast, intelligent, and powerful. It also empowers users with self-custody or partial self-custody. If this tokenization is accomplished on a decentralized network, stocks and securities could become more like bearer securities— whoever holds them owns them.
I think there's now widespread agreement that assets should be tokenized. This view is supported by people like Atkins from the SEC, Contez from the CFTC, and Scott Best from the Treasury Department. They believe the United States should lead the world in digital assets, which means promoting the tokenization of all assets.
Currently, the United States has only one relevant law, the Genius Act, which partially addresses the tokenization of US dollars but falls short of granting full rights to the use of tokenized assets. Current laws still impose numerous restrictions on tokenization. For example, only banks may provide yield services on tokenized US dollars. Despite this, there are still some legal developments that are driving the tokenization process. Following the Genius Act, the Clarity Act is expected to become the next major legislative issue. This bill may further regulate the legality of tokenized assets.
However, the Clarity Act currently does not fully embrace the concept of "digital securities." Therefore, even if the bill passes, it remains unclear whether the tokenization of stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets will be legally recognized. This legal ambiguity leads to uncertainty about the direction of technological development.
For example, if the law clearly permits the tokenization and rapid transfer of assets, Apple could tokenize every share through its Apple Pay network. However, the law is unclear about whether Apple would be held legally liable if it allowed the transfer of these tokenized securities between sanctioned individuals, and this uncertainty could slow Apple's tokenization efforts.
This demonstrates that decentralized or quasi-decentralized networks have significant advantages in the tokenization space, as they can enable asset tokenization in areas where regulation remains uncertain. Therefore, I believe we are gradually moving toward a world where digital securities and digital tokens are recognized , a trend recognized by both the SEC and the CFTC. While this goal hasn't yet been fully realized, it can be expected to gradually advance through future rulemaking.
I'm still unsure whether tokenized stocks, bonds, or other cryptographic tokens will ever be fully legally acceptable. I think we're in a transitional phase where there will likely be industry leaders who will take the lead in driving the adoption of these technologies and eventually make them the de facto industry standard.
Once these de facto standards are established, a significant influx of capital will flow into these sectors. Perhaps these tokenized assets will be formally incorporated into the legal framework before 2028, or perhaps not, and this may still spark some controversy. I can't offer a definitive conclusion on this point. However, I am certain that Bitcoin, as a digital commodity, has a clear function as a store of value, and that digital credit can be issued based on Bitcoin. Furthermore, there is already a degree of legal clarity in certain areas, such as companies being able to create non-interest-bearing stablecoins and banks potentially tokenizing deposits.
As for other sectors, the current situation remains fraught with uncertainty, a world arguably still reminiscent of the "Cowboy West." Despite the risks and uncertainties, the current political climate is relatively liberal and open, with the White House, SEC, Treasury Department, and CFTC all supporting the market. This contrasts with the situation two years ago, when the regulatory environment was more conservative, fraught with skepticism and resistance, and political support was limited.
- 核心观点:比特币将重塑全球经济体系。
- 关键要素:
- 比特币年均增长29%,21年后达210万美元。
- 企业比特币储备策略推动采用。
- 比特币信用工具将颠覆传统金融。
- 市场影响:加速数字资产与传统金融融合。
- 时效性标注:长期影响
