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A surefire opportunity in the fourth quarter? An in-depth analysis of WLFI's long-term logic and market potential
Foresight News
特邀专栏作者
3hours ago
This article is about 2662 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes
Viewpoint: WLFI may be one of the most worthwhile stocks to trade in this cycle.

Original author: hoeem

Original translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

On September 1st, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) will launch its governance token, WLFI. For some, this represents a radical reimagining of how stablecoins capture value.

To others, it’s a thinly veiled Ponzi scheme that will create one of the most violent token bloodbaths in recent memory.

I don’t agree with the launch and fundraising dynamics of governance tokens, but honestly this product is great, which is why I’m long WLFI right now.

Project Introduction

World Liberty Financial is built around USD 1, a stablecoin that claims to be fully backed by cash and short-term Treasury bills.

The governance layer is the WLFI token. Official documents directly link the Trump family to the project:

  • Donald J. Trump is listed as an honorary co-founder.
  • Eric, Donald Jr., and Barron Trump were named as co-founders.
  • DT Marks DEFI LLC, which is affiliated with the family, holds a significant number of WLFI shares and is entitled to a major share of the agreement's revenue.

This wasn’t a branding stunt: The Trump family had direct financial exposure to the agreement.

Why USD 1 is more than just another stablecoin

Most stablecoins generate income through reserves, which are typically funneled back to the company’s balance sheet. Circle’s USDC, for example, invests billions of dollars in government bonds and passes the interest on to shareholders.

WLFI subverts this model. The interest earned on the USD 1 reserve is used to purchase and destroy WLFI on the open market through a smart contract.

The process is as follows:

Reserve → Protocol Income → WLFI Repurchase and Destruction → Holder Benefits

This means that WLFI is designed not only as a governance token, but also as a deflationary asset pegged to real-world cash flows.

Token circulation

  • Date: September 1, 2025
  • Exchanges: Binance, Bybit, OKX, Gate, etc.
  • Unlocked: 20% of pre-sale tokens are tradable at launch, the rest are locked
  • Supply: 5% of circulating supply

WLFI is already available in the futures market, currently priced at $0.26. Once spot trading begins, these pre-sale markets will convert directly to standard perpetual contracts, with price history preserved.

Next, I will analyze why this may be one of the most worthwhile stocks to trade in this cycle.

Investment institutions and partners

Major players have already entered the market:

  • DWF Labs was bought at 0.10.
  • Aqua One Fund invested $100 million at a price of approximately 0.125.
  • Nasdaq-listed ALT 5 Sigma committed $1.5 billion at a price of 0.20 in exchange for 7.5% of the supply.

Even more striking: ALT 5 has reportedly been approved for $750 million to purchase WLFI.

Do you think they will let it fall below 20 billion FDV?

Now consider the circulating supply: only about 5% of the supply will be circulating at launch. At a $20 billion valuation, that's about $1 billion worth of tradable tokens. With $750 million in reserves, insiders could theoretically absorb almost all of the circulating supply.

This creates a reflexive feedback loop: buying pressure drives up token prices, which in turn makes the allocations locked by insiders more valuable, which in turn strengthens the balance sheet used to support the market.

One skeptic put it bluntly: "This is a walking, talking shitcoin with an elite-level Ponzi economic mechanism, sponsored by the president and his family."

Why this structure is destined to skyrocket

Three factors:

  • Scarce circulating supply: With so little circulating supply, even low demand can drive wild price fluctuations.
  • Built-in buying pressure: Every dollar of profit in stablecoin reserves may translate into systematic WLFI purchases.
  • Narrative Fuel: This isn’t just a meme coin fueled by Twitter hype. It has political branding, institutional support, and government bond backing.

The value of WLFI held by ALTS does not come from passive price anchoring or solely from on-chain staking returns. Its core value comes from the real-world cash flow generated by the USD 1 stablecoin, the core application of its ecosystem.

If Trump’s memecoin, which has no utility and almost no promotion, can reach a maximum valuation of nearly 80 billion FDV, then what will happen to WLFI, which has both institutional and financial support?

The setup seems designed to create a dramatic rally.

A risk no one should ignore

FDV is important in the long run.

But it's not a long-term bet.

You are betting on low circulation and heavy promotion by the President, coupled with the Treasury wanting to drive the price up so they can recoup their 20% unlocked tokens and make more, and the retirement funds on their token unlocking schedule.

Side bets

There are two smaller projects surrounding the launch of WLFI:

Blockstreet (BLOCK): Touted as the launch platform for the cross-chain launch of USD 1. Its founder has taken on the role of CIO of Altcoin 5 Sigma, directly linking it to WLFI’s treasury approach.

Dolomite (DOLO): A lending platform whose co-founder is now the CTO of WLFI. It may integrate more deeply, such as becoming a DeFi provider for USD 1.

Small market capitalization means more upside potential, but also higher risk.

Both are higher-beta bets: they could swing more dramatically in either direction depending on WLFI's fortunes.

Summarize

WLFI is many things at once:

  • A stablecoin model where the proceeds are used to buy back a governance token backed by the US government.
  • A political experiment combining DeFi with brand power.
  • A reflexive financial structure that could reach an outrageous valuation, allowing its investors to extract huge profits in a future unlocking schedule (but that doesn't mean you can't make a lot of money at launch).

What is undeniable is the layout: extremely small circulation (5%), huge treasury capital, and a design that converts real-world income into continuous purchases of the token itself.

Whether you view it as innovation or a state-sponsored Ponzi scheme, the coin, launched with just 5% of the circulating supply, has the makings of a massive surge.

After this, the product WLF is offering is actually pretty cool, it's just that the future of the token itself looks bad because its FDV is overvalued, but remember, market cap at launch is more important than FDV, FDV is what matters in the long term, that is, I think they will sell you over time, but they want the highest FDV possible to make that happen, especially when ALT 5 is entering the market at 0.20 (20 billion FDV), which is not far from the current price, and in fact you can trade it at this price on platforms like Hyperliquid in the last 48 hours, making it probably one of the most worthwhile trades in this cycle.

My argument is simple.

This would be a liquidity siphon similar to TRUMP, after which market conditions turned bearish.

So my plan is to sell at this launch, hold mostly cash in September, and find an entry opportunity at some point before what I believe will be the climax of Q4.

The same people who saw TRUMP launch, hit 20 billion FDV, and shorted it when it got to about 80 billion FDV, will do the same thing this time, only this time WLFI has some utility, a smaller float, and more backing.

Trump
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