Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Azuma ( @azuma_eth )
Following the crisis of trust caused by the oracle manipulation attack in March this year on the issue of whether Ukraine will reach a rare earth trade agreement with Trump before April, Polymarket has recently been embroiled in a truth controversy again due to Ukraine. Compared with the last incident involving US$7 million in funds, this incident will affect the ownership of a huge amount of US$140 million.
Odaily Note: For details of the last controversial incident, please refer to Polymarket suffered an oracle manipulation attack, and big investors were able to use their voting rights to confuse right and wrong?
Core controversy: Did Zelensky wear a suit?
The prediction pool in question is whether Ukrainian President Zelensky will wear a suit before July, and the judgment criteria are whether Zelensky will be photographed or recorded wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025 in the Eastern United States. In February this year, Zelensky was criticized by the US conservative media for not wearing a suit during his meeting with Trump. Since then, speculation about whether Zelensky will wear a suit on formal occasions has continued to emerge.
As shown in the figure above, the success rate of not worn (No) in the prediction pool has climbed to 98%, and the success rate of worn (Yes) has dropped to 2% - so the question is, June has passed, and it stands to reason that if it was worn, it was worn, and if it was not worn, it was not worn, so why is there still no conclusion on this matter?
The crux of the controversy is that Zelensky wore what appeared to be a suit but was not very traditional when he attended a NATO event on June 24...
Although this suit does not look like the common type of suit people think of, major media generally believe that Zelensky is indeed wearing a suit.
Zelenskiy swapped his military uniform for a black suit at the NATO summit, the BBC reported in its coverage of the event.
The New York Post published a headline saying: Zelensky took off his T-shirt and put on a suit for talks with President Trump.
Even Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel), which is suspected to be the official account of Polymarket, described the video of Zelensky arriving at the venue as: President Zelensky wore a suit last night.
From the above information, it seems that the outcome of the incident will develop in the direction of wearing through, but things are obviously not that simple.
In the March article, we introduced that Polymarket relies on the oracle UMA to determine the results of events . The determination process is as follows:
Result reporting: After an event occurs, anyone can report the results to UMA.
Dispute window: There will be a dispute period after the report is submitted. Anyone who believes that the report is wrong can raise a dispute. If no one disputes, the report result will be accepted; if there is a dispute, UMAs dispute resolution mechanism will determine the final result.
Dispute Resolution: UMA token holders need to vote to determine the correct outcome. UMA will incentivize honest behavior and punish malicious behavior.
In this case, although most users tend to think that Zelensky did wear a suit, not everyone thinks so. According to the process records of Polymarket, the prediction pool finally reached the third step of the process, which means that someone disputed the results of the original report, so a UMA vote was needed to decide the final result.
The UMA official governance interface shows that the voting for the final result of the prediction pool will end in 17 hours. Although the final result has not yet been determined, because some UMA whales chose not wearing in the vote, Polymarkets prediction winning rate also showed a huge difference.
This situation has caused great dissatisfaction in the Polymarket community. As of the time of posting, the number of replies under the relevant prediction pool has exceeded 24,000, and a large number of users are venting their anger without concealing their anger.
Polymarket, as a platform, was not immune. First, after the controversy in the pool, Polymarket officials said that reliable reports have not confirmed whether Zelensky was wearing a suit, but did not explain what reliable reports meant, which was suspected of misleading the community with vague statements; second, some users found that the user who had previously posted Zelensky was wearing a suit Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) has changed its account description to “community owned”, which is suspected to be a case of “passing the buck”.
In anger, a large number of users have begun calling for complaints against Polymarket to regulatory agencies such as the SEC, FBI and CIA through replies below the original post and other social media channels. Some even provided detailed complaint channels and tutorials.
Whats more, Martin Shkreli, an overseas cryptocurrency influencer, has posted a video on Youtube, saying that he has contacted Founders Fund, the main investor of Polymarket, and seems to want to exert pressure through the investor level.
At the end of June, the market just heard that Polymarket was raising nearly $200 million at a valuation of over $1 billion, and the lead investor was Founders Fund . At the critical moment of financing negotiations, Polymarket once again fell into a crisis of trust, and the amount involved this time was large enough, and the communitys condemnation became increasingly strong. In the most extreme case, it may affect Polymarkets financing progress.
