Original author -JP Morgan

Compiled - Odaily Nan Zhi

On Thursday, a team of JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou published a Bitcoin ETF research report stating: “Risk is a key factor often overlooked and Bitcoin should be matched with gold in investment portfolios. The report stated that the total value of gold currently held for financial investment purposes is US$3.3 trillion. If the market value of Bitcoin rises to the same value, the price of Bitcoin will more than double.

(Odaily note: Based on 67,000 USDT, Bitcoin’s current market value is US$1,316.4 billion, which is still 150% away from US$3.3 trillion. The total market value of gold is US$14.5 trillion.)

The report states that most investors will consider risk and volatility when allocating across assets, and Bitcoin is approximately 3.7 times more volatile than gold, soIt is unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to reach a nominal amount equivalent to gold in an investment portfolio(i.e. the market cap is hardly $3.3 trillion). If Bitcoin matched gold in venture capital, the $3.3 trillion market cap should be divided by 3.7 and a reasonable market cap would be $890 billion.

Analysts said, “This implies a (reasonable) price for Bitcoin of 45,000 USDT, well below current levels. In other words,At the current price of 66,000 USDT, Bitcoin already has a larger allocation in investor portfolios than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.”

ETF inflows expected at $62 billion

Of the $3.3 trillion in gold held for financial investment purposes, only 7% is held in funds, or about $230 billion, while the rest is held in the form of gold bars and coins.

So similarly calculating with a fluctuation ratio of 3.7,The reasonable size of a Bitcoin ETF is around $62 billion, which is also the upper limit of a potential target for a Bitcoin ETF, which over time could be achieved within two to three years. But a large portion of net inflows are likely to come from continued rotational shifts into ETFs from existing (investment) vehicles.

(Odaily note: Dune statistics show that the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds a total of 791,085 BTC, and the asset management scale has reached 53 billion US dollars, which is only 9 billion US dollars away from the reasonable scale proposed by JPMorgan Chase.)

Farside InvestorsData shows that as of 15:00 on March 8, since the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow has been US$9.37 billion.

Therefore, if the same pace is maintained, the upper limit of JPMorgans forecast will be reached in May this year. )

Reference: JPMorgan Chase’s previous forecast report

Odaily has compiled previous reports from the J.P. Morgan analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Its recent forecasts and views are as follows:

Reported on February 29: The halving event in April may trigger a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin, which is expected to drop to 42,000 USDT;

Reported February 22: Retail investor enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies rebounded in February and may therefore be one of the reasons for the strong gains in the cryptocurrency market this month. The main lines are AI and Meme; (Note: The closing price of WLD on that day was 8.15 USDT, and the closing price of PEPE was 0.0 {5} 121 USDT)

January 25 report: GBTC profit-taking is basically over, and Bitcoin’s room for decline is limited; (Note: BTC’s closing price on the day was 39961 USDT)

January 18 report: As GBTC takes profits, Bitcoin prices may face greater pressure; (Note: BTC’s closing price on the day was 41327 USDT)

January 12 report: There is no more than a 50% chance that an Ethereum spot ETF will be approved before May;

January 11 report: Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to see $36 billion in inflows throughout 2024, and GBTC is expected to see outflows of $13 billion.