Yesterday the market was relatively calm, with mixed economic data, and asset prices consolidated within the recent range. In February, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rebounded by 10 points to -5, mainly due to a surge in the current and future employment indices, while the pace of price increase dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%. On the other hand, US durable goods orders plummeted by -6.1% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since April 2020, primarily due to a 16.2% decline in transportation-related durable goods orders (aircraft). In addition, consumer confidence index fell well below expectations, with weak performance in current and future conditions indices as well as employment categories. In summary, although the US economy is undoubtedly still strong, we may be approaching a short-term peak in positive data, and we may see some weakening in employment data next.

This Friday is the deadline for the partial "government shutdown" in the United States. If politicians decide to drag things to the last minute again, a larger-scale shutdown may be faced on March 8. It is expected that the details of the financing bill will be resolved in the next few days, and continuing resolutions may be an option, which will increase the risk of the overall news next week.

In the cryptocurrency market, prices continue to rise. In the past day and a half, the short liquidation volume of BTC futures approached $300 million. With the cryptocurrency market cap returning above $2 trillion, the trading volume of ETFs, excluding GBTC, has also reached new highs in the past few days. Market FOMO sentiment is high, and different altcoins are rebounding, while the spread between futures and spot prices is widening.

As expected, the volatility of cryptocurrencies has significantly increased, with volatility ranging from 57-61% over a period of 1 week to 1 month. Traders seem to be caught in short-gamma positions as spot prices explode, but as the price approaches 60 k, the short-term put options are also beginning to rise.

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