比特币ETF通过40多天后， 加密市场流入了多少资金？

Original author: Frank, PANews

On January 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the application for a Bitcoin ETF, and 11 Bitcoin ETFs were listed at the same time. The entire crypto community also ushered in a new round of gains with this news. After a brief decline from 49,000 to 38,500, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered again and successfully broke through the $53,000 mark. So, are Bitcoin ETFs really becoming the biggest positive driver of this bull run in the entire crypto market? PANews made a comprehensive review of the dynamics of Bitcoin ETFs at this stage. In the world of more than 40 days, how much funds did Bitcoin ETFs add to Bitcoin?

After the ETF was approved, the net increase in holdings was 110,000 Bitcoins, bringing the total holdings to $37.21 billion.

Since the adoption of the ETF, as of February 25, 2024, the number of Bitcoins held by the 11 ETFs has ranged from 619,491 to 732,549, with a total cumulative increase of 113,058 Bitcoins. The total holding data of the Bitcoin ETF is 732,000 Bitcoins, and the scale of funds under management has increased from US$28.59 billion to US$37.21 billion, a cumulative increase of US$8.6 billion in funds.

According to this statistics, the average holding price of the Bitcoin ETF through the initial stage was approximately $46,163, and the current average holding price is $50,803.

Currently, Bitcoin ETF holdings account for 3.73% of the overall supply, which is more than the number of Bitcoins in the Binance exchange wallet address of 596,000 (coincarp data). The current holdings of the top 30 Bitcoin spot exchanges are approximately 1.2 million (excluding the number of ETF custody). Judging from the net increase of 110,000 Bitcoins, the adoption of ETF has directly brought new additions to the crypto market. Circulation demand accounts for approximately 9.34%, which directly stimulated the price of Bitcoin to rise to more than $53,000.

Grayscale reduced its holdings of 175,000 Bitcoins, while BlackRock acquired 127,000

While overall Bitcoin ETF holdings increased, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant correction from $49,000 to $38,500 in the days following the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF on January 11. The main reason for this sharp decline is from the reduction of Grayscale’s holdings.

Since investors do not directly purchase Bitcoin when purchasing ETFs, ETF issuers need to purchase corresponding Bitcoin spot through cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase based on order demand in the secondary market to match market circulation. Correspondingly, institutions like Grayscale have a discount due to the previous Grayscale Bitcoin GBTC. Therefore, after the ETF passes, Grayscale needs to sell the corresponding Bitcoin shares to eliminate the discount.

Before the U.S. SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale had always been the largest holder of Bitcoin, and because GBTC was an irredeemable trust fund, Grayscale’s Bitcoin holdings had always been at a level of only reduced state. This status was broken after the passage of the Bitcoin ETF. Since ETFs are funds with redemption properties, Grayscale’s Bitcoin holdings began to be reduced rapidly. down from 617,000 to 445,000.

There are several reasons for this: the most important reason is that Grayscale’s management fees are 6 times higher than those of its competitors, judging from the management fees of various ETFs currently announced. The management fees of most ETFs remain in the range of 0.49% -0.19%, with only Grayscale’s management fees remaining at 1.5%. About 6 times that of other opponents. For large-capital customers investing in ETFs, Grayscale’s management fees are obviously not an advantage. On the other hand, Ark, which was once among the top ten GBTC holdings, has established its own ETF (ARKB) and will also transfer funds to its own ETF pool. And GBTC no longer has arbitrage space at a discount, which has also caused many GBTC holders to transfer their positions.

In contrast, IBIT launched by BlackRock increased its holdings from 228 Bitcoins on January 10 to 126,900 Bitcoins today. BlackRock is the worlds largest asset manager, with about $8.9 trillion in funds under management globally. It is the most competitive among many ETF products in terms of customer resources and brand effects. Currently, BlackRock Management and Fidelity Investments’ Bitcoin ETF positions exceed MicroStrategy’s 190,000 positions. Fidelity, another ETF issuer, also increased its share of Bitcoin holdings to 91,600. These two institutions took in almost all of Grayscale’s reduced positions in Bitcoin. So, look at it from that perspective. The increase in holdings of Bitcoin ETFs has not yet shown much effect, but is at a stage of competition among various issuers.

Coinbase custody 637,000 Bitcoins, custody fees may exceed $30 million in 2024

After the adoption of ETF, various ETF fund companies seem to be the most popular companies in the market. In fact, it is more likely that Coinbase will gain the most from the implementation of the policy this time, and it will have the opportunity to regain its position as the leader of crypto exchanges in 2024.

Among all ETFs issued, except for Fidelity, which self-custody 91,000 Bitcoins, almost all other ETF funds have chosen Coinbase as the custodian for their Bitcoin holdings. Coinbase currently has 637,000 Bitcoins in custody for ETF issuers, accounting for 86.9% of all EFT holdings, exceeding Binance’s 590,000 holdings.

Coinbase reported fourth-quarter 2023 revenue of $953.79 million, beating the consensus estimate of $822.36 million. Its financial report stated that Coinbases customer asset custody revenue will be US$20 million in 2023. Based on the industrys lower fee rate of 0.1%, the Bitcoin ETFs current custody funds of $32.4 billion will bring Coinbase $32.49 million in revenue in 2024, which will also increase in the future as the size of the ETF grows.

In addition to Grayscale, BlackRock and Fidelity Investments are the mainstays that cannot be ignored among current ETF issuers. BlackRock currently has 427 ETF products, and the total funds under management (AUM) of IBIT products is US$6.5 billion, ranking 82nd among BlackRock ETF products. As the market matures, IBITs ranking within it is still expected to continue to rise. Fidelity Investments, another asset management giant, is not far behind with about 4.65 billion. Currently, the total fund management scale of Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity Investments accounts for 90.6% of ETFs.

Calculated based on the rate standards of the three companies, the current share is maintained. Grayscale has about $340 million in management fee income (1.5% fee), BlackRock has about $16 million (0.25% fee), and Fidelity Investments has about $11 million (0.25% fee). Of course, if Grayscale continues to maintain the current management fee level, it may soon lose its current Bitcoin position size.

Currently, the market is anticipating the adoption of an Ethereum ETF in 2024, with BlackRock also being a major promoter. As more and more crypto-assets enter mainstream finance, the market will become more mature and full of imagination.