Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Only after the tide goes out do you know who is swimming naked?
A. Market View
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Monetary liquidity improved. U.S. CPI inflation in April was weaker than the previous value and expectations, and the market erased expectations for a rate hike in June, betting that it may turn to loose policy as early as September. There are still three weeks to go until the debt limit day warned by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, and market panic spreads. A technical default could spur trillions of dollars of capital rushing from risky assets into the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. stock market fluctuated sideways, and the encryption market encountered the withdrawal of major market makers, and the trend was weaker than that of the U.S. stock market.
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Second, the whole market
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
The market has been volatile this week, lacking in innovation and narrative. Major crypto market makers Jump and Jane Street began to retreat due to regulation, resulting in a sharp drop in altcoin liquidity. The hotspot is shifting to Meme coins and BRC 20 tokens with smaller market caps on the chain.
BSV: BTC is congested by BRC 20 transaction activity, and the market re-hypes the big block route. Many of the most popular BRC 20 community developers come from the BSV community.
BGB: The exchange Bitget announced that tokens will be empowered, and new tokens will be airdropped to BGB holders in the future.
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3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
The huge holders of BTC are relatively stable. Rumors have circulated recently about the sale of BTC wallets controlled by the US government. In fact, the US government’s BTC holdings have remained stable at 206,000. These are obtained from the 16-year Bitfinex hack and the 12-year Silk Road hack.
The capital side is basically flat, and the market stock game. The next bull market rally requires fresh capital inflows.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.7, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week, and the market has no obvious long-short sentiment. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: The total open interest decreased this week, and the main funds in the market retreated.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.6. Retail investors are more emotional. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
BTC fluctuated downward this week, and the market may undergo a mid-term adjustment. The enthusiasm of the Meme season has faded, and the market will usher in a big correction after every Meme hit in history. U.S. Treasury yields hit record highs in early June as the possibility of a U.S. default increased. If there is an overall decline in the risk market due to debt defaults, it will be difficult for the encryption market to be immune to it.
B. Market Data:
1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain
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2. Proportion of TVL of each public chain
Judging from the data of the past seven days, in the core public chain of the second-tier Ethereum network, Arbitrum rose by 2.89%, and other popular L2s continued the downward trend of the previous two weeks. Among them, Optimism fell by 7.9% this week, and Polygon Down 7.73 percent, the Avalanche fell 7.58 percent.
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3. The lock-up volume of each chain agreement
1) ETH locked position situation
2) BSC locked position situation
3) Tron lock-up volume
4) Avalanche lock-up volume
5) Polygon lock-up volume
7) Optimism lock-up volume
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The current on-chain transfer fee is about $4.86, which is a significant increase of about 49.5% compared to $1.61 at the same time last week. Uniswap transaction fees are approximately $43.07, and Opensea transaction fees are approximately $16.72. Recently, gas has risen with the fluctuation of market hotspots, and it has temporarily left the bottom range from the trend point of view. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.
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5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 index:
2) NFT market conditions:
3) NFT trading market share:
Judging from the total volume of the market, this week is still in a downward trend. According to the NFT market share, blur occupies about 69.4%, which is an increase of 2.1% compared to last week. Opensea accounted for about 22%, an increase of ~3.4% compared to last week. From an overview of the NFT market, some blue-chip NFT floor prices fell this week. Azuki and MAYC fell back to the level of two weeks ago after a brief rise last week. Azuki fell 8.86%, and MAYC fell 13%. BAYC fell 4.48%. From the perspective of market categories, social NFT still occupies the largest marketcap, reaching 2.9 m.
6. The latest financing situation of the project
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About Foresight Ventures
Website: https://www.foresightventures.com/
Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.
