Burst the original sin bubble and explore the future development model of GameFi
Original title: "A detailed count of the development of the GameFi model, the future is still expected? "
Original author: W Labs, Footprint Analytics
Data source: Footprint × W Labs GameFi Report Dashboard
GameFi has been on the rise for more than a year. From the rapid upward climb in the number of users in the last quarter of 2021, it began to weaken in early 2022, and there was a significant decline in February.
GameFi has been on the rise for more than a year. From the rapid upward climb in the number of users in the last quarter of 2021, it began to weaken in early 2022, and there was a significant decline in February.
, After releasing the announcement of clearing Chinese users, it also fell into a slump.StarSharks, Crabada and other projects, GameFi seems to have rekindled hope, but in April and May these two games also inevitably fell into a death spiral. Impressed by the new Move-to-eran modelStepN, After releasing the announcement of clearing Chinese users, it also fell into a slump.
secondary titleGameFiThe active cycle is not too long, but their development paths have also brought some enlightenment to the market:
1. The faster the development, the less high-quality projects
GameFi projects are mixed, and there is no shortage of fork projects that want to make a fortune.70% to 80% of the GameFi projects on the market can't reach the active state of 200 people per day for 5 consecutive days.secondary title
Footprint Analytics - Days from Project Launch to Active
2. The active cycle of the project is worrying
secondary title
Footprint Analytics - Days from Project Active Launch to Inactive
Most of the GameFi projects on the chain are very fast from going online to becoming active, but they do not stay active for a long time.
HIVE relies on
Through the analysis of the cycle of the GameFi project from online to active to inactive, the horizontal axis is set to the number of days required for the project to go online to active, the vertical axis is the number of days from the active state, and the size of the bubble is the total number of users number.
The farther to the left, the sooner the project will become active after it goes online, and the higher to the top, the longer the active time of the project. Therefore, the projects that fall in the upper left corner have better performance.
HIVE relies onSplinterlandsOutstanding performance in many projects, it has entered the active period after it went online and is still maintaining,Ethereum is not friendly to GameFi in terms of gas fees and transaction efficiency, which makes it not ideal in the GameFi field. Many projects have a long climbing period in the early stage, short active time, and the total number of users is not high. But after all, it has a solid foundation. Perhaps after solving these problems, the launch of more high-quality games will allow it to occupy a wider market share in GameFi.
Footprint Analytics - Project Lifecycle Layout
Ethereum is not friendly to GameFi in terms of gas fees and transaction efficiency, which makes it not ideal in the GameFi field. Many projects have a long climbing period in the early stage, short active time, and the total number of users is not high. But after all, it has a solid foundation. Perhaps after solving these problems, the launch of more high-quality games will allow it to occupy a wider market share in GameFi.
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Footprint Analytics - Project Lifecycle Layout (Zoom in)
In addition to the fuel of the bear market, GameFi's current situation is inseparable from its own original sin. This report will attempt to uncover the reasons for the above problems and explore the possible future of GameFi.
by
1. The first half of brutal development
byAxie InfinityThe core of the GameFi 1.0 period led by Play-to-earn. Whether it is in the gameplay (such as simple and rude Staking, tower climbing PVE, card battle PVP), or in the economic model (single currency, dual currency, Token + NFT, U standard, currency standard, etc.),Its essential framework still belongs to the Ponzi structure, that is, the "outer circulation" model that relies too much on the continuous entry of funds.
from
Outer circulation mode
fromFootprint Analyticsimage description
Footprint Analytics - GameFi Token MarketCap
Therefore, most GameFi 1.0 projects will have a life cycle, and only one cycle,Once the death spiral is over, it's hard to restart upwardsblue chip project form
blue chip project form
Relying on the consensus of the community, it has attracted large investors to lock their positions and created a strong wealth creation effect, attracting a large number of users in the early stage of the project. But it also faces the problem of unlimited inflation of sub-coins. Once there is not enough gold-making effect, it will immediately enter the negative feedback stage, and the number of users will drop rapidly.
Footprint Analytics - Axie Users & AXS Token Price
Strong background project form
The same as the dual token modelBinaryXRelying on the consensus of the community, it has attracted large investors to lock their positions and created a strong wealth creation effect, attracting a large number of users in the early stage of the project. But it also faces the problem of unlimited inflation of sub-coins. Once there is not enough gold-making effect, it will immediately enter the negative feedback stage, and the number of users will drop rapidly.
However, with the help of the exchange and the project party's own high degree of control over BNX,It is a pure capital disk, and its life cycle shape also represents the development of most Tugou projects.
Footprint Analytics - Binary Users & BNX Token Price
Form of pure fund project
single currency modelCryptoMinesIt is a pure capital disk, and its life cycle shape also represents the development of most Tugou projects.
In the early stage of the project, a large amount of capital was attracted by the extremely short payback period, and users and market value will increase dramatically in a very short period of time.When the bubble blows to the critical point of market funds and emotions, it bursts quickly, and the higher the rise, the faster the fallimage description
Footprint Analytics - CryptoMines Users & ETERNAL Token Price
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Footprint Analytics - MC of Axie & The Sandbox
The entire GameFi field has ushered in a cold winter, perhaps because of the impact of the general environment, but more because of the Ponzi attributes of the entire GameFi itself.Chain of Crabada and
2. The second half of gradual innovation
After a round of cleaning and a period of precipitation, some high-quality projects with reliable backgrounds, small innovations in economic models, and strong operational capabilities can still set off a small wave of GameFi in February and March this year in a poor market environment. upsurge.
The most notable of these is theStarSharks. StarSharks used the gimmicks of "Tianmei" and "Binance" in the early stage of the project to keep its popularity high, and its Genesis blind box had a high premium even before the game was launched.
Unfortunately, it just happened to catch up with GameFi's cold winter period, and users' desire to make gold dropped extremely. Therefore, the number of StarSharks players in the early stage was not too high, and it was also called "the peak at the opening" at the time.
Analyzing its model, StarSharks also adopts the classic dual token model, the main output is SEA, and the governance token is SSS.
Footprint Analytics - StarSharks Monthly New Users & Active Users
Analyzing its model, StarSharks also adopts the classic dual token model, the main output is SEA, and the governance token is SSS.
In order to prevent the death spiral caused by the infinite inflation of sub-token SEA like other dual-token models, StarSharks changed the entry threshold to consume SEA to buy blind boxes,Therefore, the selling pressure of the token is transferred to the NFT pool. SEA acts as the main control effect, and 90% of the sub-coins consumed are directly destroyed, making the circulation of sub-coins even less.
It can be seen that the number of active users has been growing at a constant rate from January to March, indicating that the SEA consumed when entering the market is also growing at a constant rate. However, since the beginning of March, the price of SEA has started to trend downwards, reflecting that after several months of accumulation, the quantity of SEA produced in the market is showing an acceleration trend, and the output exceeds consumption, which will soon be reflected in the price drop .
Introduction to StarSharks Models
fromFootprint AnalyticsIt can be seen that the number of active users has been growing at a constant rate from January to March, indicating that the SEA consumed when entering the market is also growing at a constant rate. However, since the beginning of March, the price of SEA has started to trend downwards, reflecting that after several months of accumulation, the quantity of SEA produced in the market is showing an acceleration trend, and the output exceeds consumption, which will soon be reflected in the price drop .
Sure enough, starting in early April,StarSharks went against the current in the downward trend, although it failed to escape the death spiral. In this ups and downs, StarSharks' own advantages and disadvantages are enough to make
Footprint Analytics - StarSharks Token Price vs Active Users
StarSharks went against the current in the downward trend, although it failed to escape the death spiral. In this ups and downs, StarSharks' own advantages and disadvantages are enough to makeGameFiAdvantage:
Advantage:
Due to the current small amount of GameFi funds, hundreds of active users can revitalize the project in the early stage
The project combines the background narrative to support players' expectations for the GameFi project from March to April, and has won the interest and trust of a large number of users
The team successfully grasped the turning points of the two periods,Adjust the payback cycle of violent gold farming to the payback cycle of stable gold farmingDisadvantages:
Disadvantages:
Although the life cycle has been lengthened, it has not changed the overall structure in essence
2. What are the possibilities for the future of GameFi
2. What are the possibilities for the future of GameFi
And when everyone was looking forward to it, the game officially entered the second half.
And when everyone was looking forward to it, the game officially entered the second half.GameFiimage description
Footprint Analytics - Monthly Number of New Projects
In the first half of this year, the market value of some token-issued projects followed the overall
1. 3A games with content quality first
The so-called 3A games refer to some high-cost, high-volume, high-quality games. and3AThere are no objective criteria for judging blockchain games, so in the GameFi field, blockchain games are generally judged based on the strength, background, project vision, and game demo of the project team. Currently recognized 3A games include BigTime, Illuvium, StarTerra, Sidus, Shrapnel, Phantom Galaxies, etc.
These 3A games have obvious advantages and often get huge attention in the early stage of the project, but there are still various problems that are criticized by players:
The development process is too slow
Content, image quality, etc. are only slightly superior to Web3, far below the level of traditional games
After IDO and INO, there is not enough empowerment for game assets
Roadmap is blurry or not fully implemented, etc.
In the first half of this year, the market value of some token-issued projects followed the overallGameFiimage description
Footprint Analytics - Monthly Number of New Projects
Even so, 3A games are still worth looking forward to, because Play-to-earn has always been controversial in the GameFi field, but high-quality game content and quality have always been what players want to see.Therefore, as long as there are some good news and activities in these 3A games based on this, they can increase players' confidence in them to a certain extent.
Illuvium was still able to sell all 20,000 pieces of land in a very short time at the beginning of June
Illuvium was still able to sell all 20,000 pieces of land in a very short time at the beginning of June
In the future, there will be a period of time when 3A games will flourish. MOBA, RPG, SLG, etc. will create different scenes and different content according to their own positioning.from
2. Narrative-based X2E products
As a well-deserved ace project this year, StepN has set off a wave of Move-to-earn both inside and outside the circle. Also createdX2ESubdivided fields, Learn-to-earn, Sleep-to-earn, Watch-to-earn, Sing-to-earn...
fromFootprint Analyticsimage description
Footprint Analytics - X-to-earn Token Price
But in addition to the Pokémon-style games like Genopets, other X2E projects such as StepN, Korean running shoes SNKRZ, singing Melody, jumping rope FitR, etc.As a big scene in the metaverse, SocialFi has always been pursued by players. Big world chat, leaderboard comparison, game event competition, and guild battle content can all give players a flow experience beyond Earn. And the current direction is really
As a big scene in the metaverse, SocialFi has always been pursued by players. Big world chat, leaderboard comparison, game event competition, and guild battle content can all give players a flow experience beyond Earn. And the current direction is reallyGameFiRegardless of the future, the mainstream form at the current stage is still based on the Play-to-earn model. The consensus of Web3 players playing gold is still deeply imprinted in their minds, so more project parties are still iteratively updating the economic model.
3. The Fi game of benefit transition
Regardless of the future, the mainstream form at the current stage is still based on the Play-to-earn model. The consensus of Web3 players playing gold is still deeply imprinted in their minds, so more project parties are still iteratively updating the economic model.
The dual-currency model that has been verified by the market is a system that has been verified by the market at present.Because NFT will be the future
have to be aware of is,NFTThe trading market must be the project party's own trading market, so that at least it can ensure that taxation is the main source of income for the project party at the current stage, rather than completely relying on the funds of players who enter the market later.
Because NFT will be the futureGameFiThe project party can try to use NFT props as the main output of the game, whether it is ERC-721, ERC-1155 or EIP-3664, a new protocol that can evolve.
The second most important thing is the framework design of the game model, which is related to the sustainability of the project.A simple cycle like GameFi 1.0 that uses tokens and NFTs between spawning monsters and improving character attributes will appear too thin. This model is more like a Ponzi-style framework, where the late entry funds continue to contribute to the previous funds, and the project side puts the token selling pressure on NFT, and when the NFT reservoir overflows, it will fall into a death spiral.
Sample: One of the design ideas of W labs GameFi economic model
To make the game ecology richer,Horizontal extension
Horizontal extension
The horizontal extension is used to enrich the setting of the basic scene, which is a framework parallel to the original model. Here you can add more token and NFT equipment output and consumption scenarios,Such as setting the life mechanism of equipment and the standard of repairvertical extension
vertical extension
Vertical extension can be divided into 2 architectures, upward and downward. Among them, the upward extension is used to solve the problem of too few optional characters for players. 99% of players rely on the single mode of mining, withdrawing and selling to make profits, so more scenes can be added.For example, adding advanced dungeons, PVE, PVP, and these scenarios have to be differentiated, to give more empowerment through interests and consensus.
The downward extension is different from the upward extension,Extend the life cycle of the entire project by greatly increasing the number of props and gameplay.For example, the fragments and gems of props are added to increase the functions of synthesis and decomposition. The downward framework can borrow a lot from the traditional game playing methods.
3. Conclusion
GameFi 1.0 has gone through a cycle and confirmed that Web 2 and Web 3 players still have great attribute differences at least at this stage.This kind of partial Ponzi is a drainage method in the early stage of the project, but it is not feasible to rely solely on the external circulation mode. If the project party cannot find its own internal circulation method to absorb the previous bubbles, it will be difficult to escape the fate of the death spiral.
At present, the playability of most GameFi projects is still insufficient, and the advantages of the blockchain have not been reflected in technology. Therefore, only from the perspective of Web 3 users and economic models can aTransitional GameFi ModelOriginal link
The future of GameFi needs to find a way out in terms of game content, gameplay, and image quality. If there is a strong background blessing, it will be more effective. On this basis, the community consensus can be continuously maintained to extend the life cycle of the game player. Whether it is a 3A game with better content and quality, an X2E project starting from a narrative, or a game with a deeper economic model, it may be a new starting point for GameFi to bottom out.
