Interview with Crypto KOL: How should we deal with the new round of bear market?
Original Author: Morty
Original Author: Morty
When facing the unknown, what kind of attitude should a person respond to? Science fiction writer Lyme's answer is humility.
When asked about @十一地主's views on the market, he mentioned that humility is the theme that Lime's novels have always carried out. We must face the unknown financial world with a humble attitude. Web3 is the unknown world.
The unknown often represents complexity.
Changes in a simple system are often linear and easy to predict, but the increase in variables will suddenly increase the complexity of the system. Just like the famous three-body problem, we cannot solve it exactly, that is, we cannot predict the mathematical situations of all three-body problems. The same is true of a market economy determined by many factors.
After experiencing the flood of the US dollar under the new crown crisis and the high inflation caused by the loose monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has begun to suppress inflation by raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet.
Under the influence of the macro environment, the recent situation of the encryption market is also not optimistic.
The fall of LUNA/UST is the fuse of the market collapse, just like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo, the market decline can no longer be recovered. Few people can survive this fall alone, and institutions are the first to bear the brunt. Institutions such as Celsiu and Three Arrows Capital are also facing a liquidity crisis.
So, as ordinary individuals, how should we deal with the new round of bear market?
To this end, Shenchao TechFlow interviewed several encrypted KOLs who had experienced bull-bear conversions and tumbling in the secondary market, and asked them two questions:
1. How do you view the current market environment? and future development?
2. What lessons have you learned from the bear market? Do you have any experiences worth mentioning in the bear market?
Let's see what their experiences are:
Sorin 0xSoro @realsatoshinet— Both the real world and the encrypted world are undergoing unprecedented changes. The world is so bad, I don't believe that the virtual economy will be alone, at least it needs to be cultivated for a while.
After a cycle, the market structure has changed. It is false to say that you can see the direction clearly. You can only cross the river by feeling the stones and watching while walking.2. The bear market is a good time for accumulation. Seize all the possibilities to learn eagerly and communicate with players in the industry.
The experience worth mentioning in the bear market, I think it will be the insistence on this matter itself. It was a pity to see many players fall before dawn in the last round. We persevered by chance and sent away the bear market. The actual situation is at the threshold before the start of the bull market. There will always be such and such things that make people give up. I have persisted for a year or two, and fell short in the last subject. Therefore, persevering to the end is itself a victory.
Eleven Landlords @ Eleven LandlordsTo be honest, I care about the market environment, but I am not very good at analyzing the market environment. I've read a couple of Lyme's science fiction books before, and one of his themes isWhen facing the unknown, what kind of attitude should a person respond to? His answer is humility.
If human beings are arrogant, they will be bullied by the sea of Solaris, rejected by the people of Kunta, and made neurotic by a piece of distant code. I think Web3 or finance is an unknown world.
I think the answer is too definite, and if I really take action, I will be bullied by the market, so I don't dare to make judgments about interests. If it’s just a rant, I cautiously believe that the current (June 2022) market is bearish in view of the successive thunderstorms of the public chain, capital, and CeFi. But no matter what, what I can do is to study hard, work hard, maintain good health, and accumulate wealth in a broad sense.
I have very strong confidence in the future development of Web3, and my position, work, and body do not allow me to be short on it. This is my little arrogance. I don’t know how far away the future is, but judging from the halving cycle of Bitcoin, I think the bull market will come again in 2 years, and new narratives, new tools, and new ways of playing will appear again. These old and new will help Web3 is constantly transforming the environment, ways of doing things, values, and so on. Now there is such a new narrative, called soul binding. Technology modifies the environment to suit itself.Two inflation will die.
If you are a bad person, don't think about getting rich with Bitcoin or Web3, don't resign easily, don't expand, and accumulate wealth in a broad sense.
On the National Day of 2018, I went to the West Lake in Hangzhou to promote Bitcoin, and I would be caught. Because of that incident, some people knew me.
In 2019, my girlfriend PUA me at the time, saying that you have no house, no car, and no money. Now I only want you to be nice to me, so you have to mop the floor, wash clothes, buy vegetables and cook. At that time, I was Bitcoin most of the time. So, I said on Weibo: I hope you encounter similar encounters in the future, don't be discouraged, have confidence and courage. Don't be suspicious of hoarders, you will deserve a lot.
Todd @0x_Todd, Partner at Nothing ResearchThe encryption market is changing rapidly, and it is actually difficult to answer this question. However, a few days ago there was a Thread saying that the bear market has 3 stages, and we are in the 2nd stage. I agree with this assertion.If we say that the first stage is the slow decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum from the apex. The Luna unanchoring event, then, heralds the beginning of phase two.
In the industry, it not only caused heavy losses to many ordinary investors, but also affected the confidence of the market outlook. At the same time, it has also severely damaged the vitality of many top institutions and CeFi, which has triggered the current liquidity crisis. Outside the industry, the widespread criticism of public opinion, the eagerness for regulation, and the overall environment of the global interest rate hike cycle have all brought very negative impacts.A bull market does not happen overnight, and neither does a bear market, nor does it fall to the bottom all at once, with repeated rebounds in the middle.
But today's internal and external environment is not enough to support Crypto to go out of the independent market. But again, in a structural bull market, there will also be deep corrections. I am still full of confidence in the long-term future of the encryption market. Whether it is technology, applications, or talents, Crypto has better confidence than in the past, so after a round of bear market baptism, real gold will still shine.Two thousand words into four words, that is, "don't mess around".
In 2013, I started to get in touch with the culture of Bitcoin, and it can be regarded as having experienced 2 rounds of complete bear markets. Generally speaking, at the beginning of the bear market, many people actually just gave back the profits of the bull market, but did not actually generate too many losses. However, with the deepening of the bear market, even if Bitcoin will only fall by 80%, there are many people whose principal has been reduced by 99%.
The reason is - "toss". Human nature is like this, what is lost always wants to take greater risks to earn it back. In the bull market, everyone has actually earned the beta of the industry, and with a little luck, not everyone has truly mastered the wealth code. But in a bear market, if you still manage your funds according to the aggressive style of a bull market, then the result can be imagined. Therefore, the bear market is a good opportunity to learn, build and rest, not a battleground for trying to recover floating profits, or even double them (at least for most people).
Funds in a bear market are extremely inward. In the past, Smart money might not even look at 100% of financial management, but now seeing 10% of the pool, they are willing to give it a go, not to mention not having so much time and energy The general public is invested in Crypto. It's hard to roll past the top predators in these markets, and in a sense, it's even better to lie flat.
Speaking of interesting things, my only pleasure when I was 18-19 was to debate with various supporters of Bitcoin's large block technology route. I wrote a lot of articles and blog posts. Although everyone didn't have much BTC at that time (and there was not a few thousand dollars left for a BTC at that time), the whole debate process was very exciting. We have done a lot of deduction about what kind of bitcoin will be in the future, and these deduction will make people have their own "worldview" about encryption technology. Then various developments will confirm or falsify your judgment. This process is a very good learning process.The bear market is a touchstone for testing Crypto projects, and it is also a good opportunity for practitioners to think, learn and build.
Finally, I also hope that everyone will learn more in the bear market, work hard in the bull market, follow the cycle, and finally achieve considerable financial returns.
Rui @YeruiZhang, HashKey Investment ManagerIn the short term, there are still many thunders in Crypto. Celsius and 3AC are just the beginning. Even in the current market situation, it is not difficult to artificially create mines. This market is overly liberalized, and the large amount of leverage added in the cycle of last year is counteracting.
But this kind of market is dominated by institutions and retail investors pay the bills, so whether it can take off again depends on the willingness of institutions to participate and the determination of retail investors to participate. Everyone is talking about regulation, but regulation is limited in what it can do for the globally scattered, illiquid market with a market capitalization of only one trillion yuan. It is not so much regulation as it is the acquiescence of some big players in regulation. Let's help crypto get out of the circle. Macroscopically speaking, the whole world is very bad. Only the United States is alone. There is a lack of new pillar industries in the industry. In terms of finance, the exchange rates of the national currencies of some countries are completely decoupled. In such a turbulent environment, the new trading system and national currency reserves are carried on Cryoto is entirely possible. Also under the premise that financing costs are high enough, assets will have higher requirements on the income side, and funds will flow to places where it is better to make money. In the last cycle, capital chose to earn money for the growth of emerging countries, but this round Perhaps the biggest global casino will once again benefit some risk takers.Second, there are many lessons learned, such as not keeping a full warehouse for living expenses, such as finding more jobs with cash flow, but the most important thing is to maintain a good attitude,
Believe everything or nothing, find the balance between belief and deception.
William Chan @William11ChanIt should be the most panic and pessimistic stage right now, and it will never be worse than it is now. I am very optimistic about the overall market in the second half of the year.
One of the reasons for the current oversold is that large institutional investors have been liquidated. At the same time, people’s expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike are very bad, so no one can catch the market, which caused the oversold. After the liquidation of the institutions is completed, and everyone finds that the Fed is not capable of raising interest rates like that, it will pick up.Two The bear market taught me three things, one isAlways believe that the bull market will come back, otherwise it doesn't make any sense to endure; the second isMust not be leveraged, whether it is rational or irrational, try not to touch leverage as much as possible; the third isThere are so many good opportunities in the bear market
, we must study carefully and then make a layout, even if it is one thousand yuan, it may become one million yuan in the bull market.
Little Penguin @打矿小企娥(Weibo)A pessimistic overall market environment
, I feel like it's over, and it may be worse than the round in 2018. Unless it is decoupled from the U.S. stock market, it will be pessimistic for the time being, and the institutions have not yet been liquidated. It will not get better until all the leveraged people are dead. (Currently I can see four digits, but I dare not say it publicly for fear of being scolded) If there is something in the bear market, such as ponzi like fomo3d, there will still be local hot spots, but it will take time. The fixed vote is far from over. It is necessary to wait patiently for the market to recover, and don't lose all bullets before the oversold bull market appears.
The market has passed the pve stage where everyone blows bubbles together, and now it has become pvp. In the stage of blowing bubbles together in 20 and 21, everyone who made money in the bull market borrowed from the principal of those who did not run in the bear market. This cycle has a high fault tolerance rate. In a bear market, while repaying the debts of a bull market, every penny you earn is taken out of another person's pocket.
The important thing is to learn to know what level you are rated at and what level you match with the market. If you are silver, you can only play bronze and silver. If you come to the king diamond game, you will give it away, and you can only be a soldier. Just wait patiently before you reach your matching level, don’t wait until your level comes, your bullets have already been delivered in the King’s Diamond Bureau. It is very important to figure out who pocketed every penny earned. If you can’t figure it out, you can’t beat your matching level, and the money will be earned by others inexplicably.
Hang on and wait. To play this difficult market, you must learn to calculate the profit-loss ratio and odds. This is no longer a market where you can make money just by playing games.
The U.S. stock performance in July was another thunderstorm. The U.S. stock market will definitely not get better this year, and it is estimated that it will have to bring b↓.Two I only followed two rules in the 18-year bear market, one isDo not touch copycats, only do BTC,two isNo contract, only spot
, as long as these two are not complied with, it is estimated that they will lose money.
Somersault Cloud, Research Director of First Class Warehouse1. Although the magnitude and time of the decline from the high point, the decline of the cottage, and many indicators in the currency circle, it is now a lot of decline, and it is time to end, but the actual psychological feeling is that everything has just begun. USDT/ The outflow of USDC also reflects the attitude of the main funds towards the market outlook.
Maybe there will be a Merge market for Ethereum in the short to medium term, but the overall situation is still bearish.
The above is the judgment on the price. Each round of the price cycle will make some people leave the market at a profit, and some people will be eliminated, but it will attract more talents, funds and attention. There are dozens or hundreds of people in each track. A project is launched in various ways, most of which will end in failure, but the accumulated leaders and innovations have made the fundamentals of this industry continue to rise, and it will still be a sea of stars in the long run.The second question is better answered.A personal perspective does not necessarily represent a company perspective.
(My) biggest mistake was knowing that the U.S. monetary policy has an impact on the crypto market, but I didn’t expect it to be so closely related. I was too dependent on the shape of the past two rounds of bull markets, which led to the retreat of the overall large positions too late.
Finally, here is the suggestion from Morty, the author of this article, which only represents personal views and is not a financial suggestion from Deep Tide TechFlow:as an ordinary person,A calm mind will prompt us to make more correct investment decisions. Whether it is lying flat, seeking stable currency income in CeFi, or participating in investment opportunities in traditional stocks, we need a more peaceful mind to make a long-term decision.
in addition,in addition,The sluggish market has also given us more learning opportunities.
In addition to the "improvement of awareness" that many people usually talk about, the use of on-chain tools can also become a focus of our learning, which is also an advantage of the blockchain industry-after all, the data on the chain is open and transparent.
