The bearish sentiment is spreading, the market has changed and the market is confirmed to be downward, whether the key support level can be supported
According to the Bitcoinwin digital platform market, BTC walked out of a relatively narrow range of shocks last week, fluctuating in the range of 35,000--40,000 as a whole. On the one hand, the market has gone out of this way because there was no major bad and bullish news last week, and on the other hand, it is because the market has taken a long time to sort out and repair since the market fell sharply.
After BTC failed to hit the 37,000 resistance mark yesterday, the bullish sentiment suffered another setback. The market continued to fluctuate and decline after the second upswing last night, and the decline was relatively large. As of the publication, BTC reported 32,877, down 8.76% within a day and 9.33% within 24 hours.
In terms of trading volume, the volume of BTC continued to decline during the entire sideways phase last week. We have already expected that the change will also come, but we did not expect it to be so fast. The entire digital currency market ushered in a sharp drop today.
After searching the entire information platform, it seems that the logic behind the real decline cannot be found from the news, so now let's take a peek at one or two from the fundamentals, that is, the data on the chain.
The three line graphs in the figure, from top to bottom, are: the BTC price change chart in the past month, the change curve of the proportion of the top 50 Bitcoin holding addresses, and the number of BTC currency holding addresses in the entire network.
It can be clearly seen that in the past month, although BTC has dropped sharply from around 59,000 to around 36,000 at present, it still cannot stop the subscription enthusiasm of members of the "Rich List".
Through the statistics of relevant data platforms, it is found that the top 50 BTC holding addresses have increased from 2,138,600 at the beginning of this year to the current 2,663,800, and the proportion of holdings has increased from 11.51% to the current 14.22%. 525,200 pieces, an increase of 2.45%.
From the above data, it can be found that large institutional investors are not afraid of the ups and downs of the market, and are still buying BTC. From the operation and attitude of the "Rich List", it can be seen that in the future, even for a long time, the Bitcoin market will fall sharply , is still very difficult.
To sum up, from the analysis of the fundamentals, it seems that the conclusions drawn are all bullish for the market. Let’s analyze the current market from the perspective of technology.
For nearly half a month, the price of Bitcoin has been running at a low level, and has been suppressed after reaching the 40,000-dollar line several times. It can be seen that the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient to show a sustained rebound.
The above picture is the daily level chart of Bitcoin. From the picture, we can clearly see that the market failed to break through many times last week and stabilized the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands, and was under pressure below the downward trend line (green downward arrow) , the market has also been running below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. It can be seen that the defense of the short side is still very strong.
Looking at the several callbacks of Bitcoin since its sharp drop, the low point of Bitcoin has been constantly rising, and there are more supports below. Then, as the lower rail of the Bollinger Band continues to move down and the lower support continues to rise, the market will be squeezed into a smaller and smaller space, that is, the oscillating triangle space formed by the two green arrows in the figure.
As mentioned above, among the major exchanges, the trading volume of BTC has been decreasing day by day in the past half month. The day will come soon.
Today, BTC's change day has arrived, and BTC has officially confirmed a wind direction for the next period of time. Since the early hours of this morning, BTC has fallen below the support line of the upward trend, and quickly turned sharply downwards, approaching 32,000.
In the four-hour level, there were three negative K-lines in a row, and the market touched the lower track of the Bollinger Bands and broke its constraints to run below it. Then there was another big Yin K-line, and the market continued to test downwards, with the lowest drop to 32325 points So far, there has not been a signal to stop the decline; after waves of bloodbaths, holders in the market began to be unable to hold back, and panic continued to heat up. Judging from the current trajectory of the K-line, although the market has fallen We explored the 32,000 mark, but there is no intention of taking it back. There may be greater challenges.
From another hour’s perspective, the MACD empty energy column begins to shrink, and there may be a rebound within the day, but the rebound is too weak at present, and the amount of energy accompanying the rebound is small. The risk here has already been revealed, and "bottom-hunting" needs to be cautious !
From a comprehensive analysis point of view, the current bearish sentiment is strong. There are only two supports below Bitcoin, which are 31000 and 29000 respectively. Although the low point may bring some bottom support to the future market decline, but facing the current weak rebound, the bottom The support level is still in jeopardy. Next, we need to focus on the validity of the support around 31,000. Once the heavy volume falls below, we may continue to test the low around 29,000.
