Where will the bull market go, and how to find the answer?

According to the Bitcoinwin digital currency platform market, BTC continued to fall last week due to negative policy factors. BTC fell all the way from around 48,000 at the beginning of last week and fell below the $30,000 mark to the lowest level of 29,000. Although the market quickly closed up and rebounded to around 42,000, a short trend has formed, and the upper side is under heavy pressure. Since the day of 520, the center of gravity of the market has also been moving downward. On the night of last Sunday, Bitcoin fell again to around 31,000, and now it rebounded to around 38,000 and fluctuated.

BTC has fallen by more than 20,000 for two consecutive weeks, and many people think that the bull market is over.

I personally think that the end of the bull market has two characteristics.

First, like the last bull run, Bitcoin peaked almost exactly when institutional acceptance hit a major milestone. This year, bitcoin reached an all-time high on April 14, when the price dipped below $65,000, which coincided with the IPO of virtual currency trading platform Coinbase. Coinbase's IPO is an important milestone for the virtual currency industry.

Bitcoin hits new highs on Coinbase IPO day. Similarly, in 2017, Bitcoin reached its then all-time high on December 17. On that day, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Bitcoin futures, which was also an important milestone at the time, reflecting the increased acceptance of virtual currencies by institutions.

Another important similarity is that in the two rounds of the market, Bitcoin first reached new highs, and then drove other altcoins to skyrocket. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin reached a new high in December 2017, while other currencies only reached new highs in January of the following year.

For example, a few days after Bitcoin began to fall from the high point, all kinds of mainstream counterfeit companies flew together, and most of the coins could rise dozens of times, so the mainstream counterfeit companies flying together is a characteristic of a typical oxtail, which is also recognized by many people one point.

This means that there seems to be some regularity in the cycle of cryptocurrencies, that is, people are always the first to enter the bitcoin transaction, when the bitcoin stagflation, funds will be transferred to other cryptocurrencies or altcoins, and then the bitcoin transaction starts to lose momentum, The mainstream copycats have risen to a certain level, and the funds have been safely withdrawn again, leaving a lot of feathers in the end.

At present, the above two characteristics are in line with the current cryptocurrency market, but we use past experience and historical deduction to judge the current situation. We don't judge whether the bulls have peaked or not, the important thing is to do well in the present.

Many people say that the sharp drop in this round of market is mainly due to the tightening of policies. I personally think that the direct factor of this sharp drop in the market is Tesla’s announcement that it will no longer accept BTC payments and China’s three major financial associations jointly issued a document banning institutions Due to participation in virtual currency business.

On May 13, Musk suddenly "rebelled", announcing on Twitter that Tesla had suspended accepting Bitcoin as a payment method because of concerns about environmental issues caused by mining, and then Bitcoin fell from around 58,000 to 45,600 Then it rebounded and oscillated around 50,000, then followed by the joint suppression of the three domestic associations, a wave of fuel added to the fire, which directly caused BTC to drop from around 50,000 to the lowest around 29,000, and institutional retail investors frantically fled, causing trampling. The Bitcoin market took a sharp turn for the worse, including many mainstream cottages that were almost cut in half that day. I believe many people are still in shock about this.

In fact, even if these bad news come out, it will be a matter of time before BTC falls to the current price, because BTC has peaked technically and in the medium and long term. Two weeks ago, in the daily K form of BTC, the arc top had been formed, and the future decline was already doomed.

In trading, veterans must know one thing, that is, know how to follow the trend. Many people buy bottoms against the trend because they don't have this experience, but they often copy on the mountainside.

Therefore, this wave of sharp decline can be said to have started to accelerate the downward mode under the catalysis of multiple major bad news.

Finally, let's interpret the current market from a technical perspective.

From a technical point of view, the monthly line has formed a large negative column, which has fallen to the level of February this year. The decline in January covers the gains of the three months, and the market's bearish sentiment is still very strong. The indicators on the weekly line are bearish, and the trend is downward. Looking at the daily line, the market on the daily line is Xiaoyang today, but it fell back when it touched MA10, and the support of the five-day line below is obvious. The market bottomed out at 31,000 for the second time on Sunday. Although the buying below is very strong, every time it falls, it will increase in volume, and the rebound will be small. This requires everyone to be careful. This infinite rebound will eventually go down as it goes up. Looking at the 4-hour level, the current currency price is hovering above and below the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. In 4 hours, it has formed a posture of 5 consecutive positives. The previously suppressed MA30 has broken through, indicating that the bullish momentum is slowly rising, including the entire Bollinger Bands. It is in a saturated upward bending posture, which means that the currency price still has a rising range in the short term. In the near future, we can focus on whether the 40,000 mark can break through and stand firm. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines all show signs of upward movement, and the short volume energy column continues to shrink quantity.

On the whole, Bitcoin is still bearish in the general trend, and there will definitely be a rebound, but we must be cautious about chasing higher. At the top, pay attention to whether the 4-hour MA60 suppression, including the 40,000 mark, can effectively break through and stand firm. Below, look at the 4-hour MA30 moving average The support is the current position of 37,000.