The godfather of currency speculation: Will the rise and fall of Bitcoin detonate the bubble economy?

玩币团长

特邀专栏作者

2021-03-30 08:18

This article is about 2585 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

The godfather of currency speculation 3.30: Will the rise and fall of bitcoin detonate the bubble economy?

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The godfather of currency speculation 3.30: Will the rise and fall of bitcoin detonate the bubble economy?

News side:

1. According to the "Daily Economic News", recently in the digital RMB APP, SF Express appeared on its "Push Sub-Wallet" page. This means that when the user pays the express freight in the SF Express APP, the funds in the wallet are transferred based on the digital currency sub-wallet to use the small-amount password-free payment service, and the corresponding order will show that the payment method is automatic deduction.

2. According to Decrypt, Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon) has proposed a controversial model, predicting that the price of Bitcoin will reach 100,000 to 288,000 US dollars this year.

3. According to Business Insider, the scale of Biden's infrastructure plan may reach $4 trillion, which is expected to include tax increases of up to $3.5 trillion.

4. Cryptocurrency analyst Joseph Young tweeted that last year, the cryptocurrency industry worked hard to join financial institutions. This year, financial institutions began to set their sights on the cryptocurrency industry.

5. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to a session high at 1.710%.

6. According to cryptonews, the new Minister of Finance of Ukraine said in an interview with Novosty 24 that he did not fully understand the nature of encryption methods. Although he still has doubts about what is behind the "support" of cryptocurrencies, he still believes that cryptocurrencies are " Promising". He also said, "The national digital transformation department is eager to regulate the cryptocurrency market, and cryptocurrency may become a global settlement currency in the future."

In the past half a month, the price of Bitcoin once fell to a minimum of nearly 50,000 US dollars after breaking through 60,000 US dollars, and the price has been in a stalemate for a period of time. Just on March 29, according to related news, VISA has allowed the use of cryptocurrencies for payment settlement. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin broke through to $57,800 in the short term.

While rising, the intraday increase has also risen by more than 2%, and Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency, has gradually begun to break the circle. Not only has it become more familiar to the public again, but it is also a manifestation of the positive market. Recently, a real business owner who had just entered the circle asked the godfather why the rise and fall of Bitcoin was so large. What the godfather wanted to say was that this kind of rise and fall was nothing at all.

Because the rise and fall of Bitcoin is around 20%, do you know how much the stocks on the ChiNext Board of China's Science and Technology Innovation Board rise and fall in a day? A 20% rise is also a 20% fall. In theory, the one-day amplitude can reach as high as 40%. Then why don't you find A shares surprised but accustomed to it? Because you are familiar with A-shares but not Bitcoin, many people are very easy to be driven by those reports with extreme words to drive your own emotions.

So why did Bitcoin skyrocket and plummet, especially reflected in the market some time ago. Then the Godfather will analyze several of the reasons for you. The first is the remarks of US Treasury Secretary Yellen on the Bitcoin issue. In addition, Musk's remarks about the high price of Bitcoin in the early stage, although it is news, these are all lies of capitalists. When Yellen talked about the issue of Bitcoin, did he not rule out that the U.S. Treasury Department wanted to secretly buy Bitcoin and drop the price, and then Musk talked about the high price of Bitcoin.

Let’s recall that some time ago, Musk deliberately bought more Dogecoins and secretly bought 1.5 billion Bitcoins at the same time, so you can read the words of capitalists as the news; the short-term singing must be for future singing many. The second reason is related to quantitative hedging. In fact, just like stock trading, a lot of funds in Bitcoin in leveraged trading are used for quantitative hedging.

Because Bitcoin has experienced many sharp rises and falls in the history of the past ten years, and the decline has far exceeded 20% of the last round of market prices. Therefore, in many quantitative hedging models, it is believed that as long as it rises high, it may fall sharply according to past models or history, so the sharp rise and fall of Bitcoin is normal. Then some people will say that Bitcoin, which is volatile up and down, is likely to have a bubble, which may be the largest asset bubble in human history.

Of course, this issue has always been a very hotly debated issue, which is nothing more than the existence of bulls and bears. The reason for the rise of Bitcoin has also been mentioned in the previous article. The first is that its supply is limited and only 2100 Tens of thousands; but there is an infinite demand. The second is that during the epidemic, the world's central banks have released a lot of water, and at the same time, it has also inspired Bitcoin's anti-inflation attributes. The third is that enterprises and institutions have accelerated their entry into the cryptocurrency market. In addition, it has also brought the exposure of Bitcoin to a higher level.

So what is bearish is that its currency circulation function is limited, and it is more used in illegal industries. The second is that Bitcoin has not been recognized by most national regulators, which can be said to be a flaw in Bitcoin. So I would like to express my personal opinion about the godfather of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is indeed intended to innovate technology. With the help of blockchain power, many unexpected legal digital currencies have been born. For example, the central bank's digital currency embraces the blockchain technology path with an open attitude.

At the same time, Bitcoin does have hidden dangers and concerns. On the one hand, its price is prone to large fluctuations, making it unable to act as a stable currency in circulation. But it has the condition that it relies on the blockchain technology behind it, and the second is that the supply segment is limited, and it will only become less and less in the future. The third is that there are celebrities, institutions and enterprises as endorsements, which have a very high exposure rate. These add up to the most powerful weapon and rhetoric of Bitcoin bulls.

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The godfather of currency speculation has been in the currency market for 7 years. From being ignorant at the beginning to becoming familiar with it later, from losing money at the beginning to making money now, from making orders blindly before to investing rationally now, from fighting alone before to now with a team operate. 7 years is just the beginning, what I want to do is 20 years, forever. I firmly believe that those who do everything for 7 years must turn an industry from a public to a professional. The content of this article is exclusively planned and released by the team of senior analysts, the Godfather of Speculation (public account: Godfather of Speculation). If you want to know more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, methods, trading techniques, operating skills, and K-line, you can add it to my learning Communication, I am the godfather of currency speculation, I hope to help you find what you want in the currency circle.