Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto? Bitcoin's mid-term bullishness largely confirmed
Hello, I just got the news. According to Sina media reports, on the evening of February 8th, Beijing time, Tesla stated in a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the company had purchased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoins.
The reason for buying is very simple, that is to make money. Of course, the original words of the people said: buying Bitcoin is for "more flexibility, to further diversify and maximize our cash return". You see, isn’t this maximizing cash return the same as earning money?
In addition, Tesla also said that in addition to buying bitcoins, the company will also start accepting bitcoin payments in exchange for its products. This would make Tesla the first major automaker to accept bitcoin payments. There was also a car company in China that said it would accept bitcoin payments before, but the rumors were quickly refuted, because it is still illegal to accept bitcoin payments in China, that is, it is legal for you to buy and sell coins, but using bitcoin as a settlement tool, It is illegal to already provide settlement and clearing services for Bitcoin.
See if it’s a coincidence. I also gave an example in yesterday’s show that the short-term rise and fall of Bitcoin depends on the news. For example, as long as Musk orders Bitcoin, the price of the currency will skyrocket in a short time. Look at today Muska really started calling for Bitcoin. In fact, last month, Muska had changed the profile of his Twitter account to "bitcoin" (Bitcoin).
On February 2, Musk also said on a social software, "I am a supporter of Bitcoin. I think that Bitcoin is already on the verge of being more widely accepted by investors." "I understand a little slowly, awareness It’s a bit late. But at the moment, I really think it’s a good thing.” Look at how straightforward the richest man’s way of shouting out is, first he said he supported it, and then he regretted buying it late. The document tells you that the company I started has bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoins. Do you want to buy it or not?
Obviously, Musk's diehard fans will buy without thinking, and the investment products that the world's richest people are buying are generally unmistakable. This is the same as a stock recommended by a stock god. It does not mean that this stock will skyrocket in a short period of time.
Excuse me, today, after Tesla’s announcement, the price of bitcoin surged 15% to at least $43,500. Tesla shares also rose more than 2% in pre-market trading.
Well, the above are short-term positives, but what about the medium term? Yesterday we talked about looking at the epidemic in the mid-term, so the key factor that determines the end of the epidemic is the vaccine, because now it is not realistic for some countries in Europe and the United States to use home isolation to eliminate the virus, and now the infected population is already too large , as of today, the cumulative number of infected people in the world has exceeded 100 million, and the existing number of confirmed cases is 27.7 million. It is no longer possible to isolate, and it is still increasing at a rate of hundreds of thousands every day. The hope is to rely on the vaccine. Then, the key factor that determines the mid-term price of Bitcoin is the vaccine. So what is the research and development or clinical performance of the vaccine? This is what we are going to focus on today.
According to statistics from The New York Times, as of February 5, 2021, a total of more than 150 COVID-19 vaccines worldwide have entered clinical trials on animals or humans, of which 67 have entered clinical trials on humans. Among these vaccines, there are 12 vaccines that have been approved for clinical application in different countries and regions, or have released phase III human clinical trial data, and are expected to be used on a large scale soon [1]. In other words, in the next few months or even longer, the new crown vaccines that the human world can rely on are mainly these 12 vaccines.
According to the technical route of vaccine development, these 12 vaccines can be divided into four categories: The first category is inactivated vaccines. The second category is recombinant protein vaccines and the third category is adenovirus vector vaccines. The fourth category is: nucleic acid vaccines, or RNA vaccines
Among the 12 vaccines, it is currently recognized that the two nucleic acid vaccines have the best effect and the widest coverage. Please note that my words are currently recognized as the best and most widely vaccinated vaccines. Today we will analyze these two vaccines, because these two vaccines directly determine the medium-term currency price trend.
In the results of Phase 3 human clinical trials announced in December 2020, these two vaccines have recorded an efficiency rate of about 95% after two injections, and can almost completely prevent the occurrence of severe illness.
Do you feel very happy and optimistic to hear this, because as long as these two vaccines can be widely used in the future, the new crown epidemic will be very significantly contained, and the epidemic will be eliminated soon, but please be careful Listen to my words, it is 95% effective rate, not the prevention rate, and the following sentence, it can almost completely prevent the occurrence of severe illness. Listen to it. Effectiveness does not mean that you will not get sick. No serious illness does not mean that you will not be ill. relapse.
To put it bluntly, the best vaccine at present can't prevent you from being infected, and it can't even guarantee that you won't relapse after getting sick. So how is this 95% effective rate calculated?
This statistical process is relatively complicated. If we talk about it, we can’t finish it in 10 minutes. I put the script of the statistical process in the program script. If you are just interested, you can read it. In short, the real conclusion drawn later is At present, the best vaccine recognized in the world cannot prevent the spread of the virus, but can only reduce the symptoms after infection. If asymptomatic infections are also counted, the effective rate of this vaccine drops to 27.3%. , because, although an asymptomatic infected person has no symptoms after being vaccinated, one of them has the virus and can still infect others. Therefore, we finally concluded that we can almost Certainly, all the new crown vaccines currently on the market should be unable to prevent the infection and spread of the virus, and cannot remove the virus from the human world.
In addition, there is some bad news to tell you that the speed of virus mutation may be faster than the speed of vaccine development, so we must be prepared to coexist with the epidemic for a long time.
The above are my views on the epidemic and vaccines. If you listen to my program last year, you will find that my views today are completely different from those a year ago. It can not be eliminated, but after I have in-depth understanding recently, I found that my previous point of view was wrong, and I overestimated the level of human technology.
But having said that, this epidemic is really not necessarily a bad thing for the development of our entire human being, because our human life has actually been too comfortable for the past two or three hundred years.
We are used to the rapid advancement of science and technology, to the ever-changing culture, to being the only one on earth, to the fact that various countries launched wars and invaded each other for some short-term interests, and are used to using the existing legal currency system to harvest each other. Viruses, a fierce and cunning enemy, have a great opportunity to bring us all together.
Because, until the whole world has formed a protective net against the new crown virus, no country can be alone with peace of mind. Finally, I wish that mankind can defeat the virus as soon as possible and end this wave of bull market! Give more students who have not got on the bus a chance to get on the bus!
