Factors that determine the medium and short-term rise and fall of Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Hello, here is the 8-minute blockchain. Today we will talk about the long-term, medium-term, and short-term factors that determine the currency price. The currency here, I specifically refer to Bitcoin and Ethereum, because in my It seems that in our currency circle, apart from these two coins, there is no coin worth holding for a long time. We have interactive questions and answers every weekend, and there will always be many students asking about various small coins in each issue. Whether the species can be held for a long time.
I especially like to answer such questions, because there is no need to think at all, it is very simple, and you can’t do it at all, because among the thousands of coins in today’s currency circle, the probability of death in the next few years is very high. For example, Ripple, which once ranked second in the market value of the currency circle, is now in a very dangerous state, because all major exchanges around the world have delisted his trading pairs. If this currency is really recognized as a security in the future, it will still After being removed from the shelves by more exchanges, his consensus will become lower and lower. If a coin has no consensus, and Ripple has such a high degree of centralization, it will be very dangerous. If you are this coin You are a long-term holder, and you still have a heavy position, betting most of your assets, how do you feel now.
Look at this currency, but the market value of our currency circle has surpassed that of Ethereum, ranking the second mainstream currency, and it is an old-fashioned currency that existed in 2013. It is already facing such a predicament today, so other ones that have just been released for 1-2 years What about small currencies? How threatened his future can be imagined.
Therefore, whether you are speculating in the long-term or short-term at any stage in the future, in the high-risk market of the currency circle, life-saving is the most important thing, that is, the most important thing is that you keep living, how can you stay alive? Woolen cloth? It is to allocate at least half of your assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum and hold them for a long time. As for the remaining half, you can play however you want. It doesn’t matter if you lose money. As long as your other half is still there, you at least It can be guaranteed that you will not lose money in general, because these two currencies have a high probability of rising in the long-term cycle, and you cannot find the power to prevent their long-term rise in any place in the world today. Today's blockchain 1.0 is called Bitcoin. The biggest factor that determines its long-term price is how much the world's existing legal currency withdrawals have failed. The price of Bitcoin today is 35,000 US dollars, which has actually proved the failure of the existing legal currency system. , because today's legal currency system will only make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Now the United States is the richest. The United States prints money to harvest other countries in the world. After other countries in the world are harvested, they have no choice but to continue printing money to harvest in their own country The time and lives of the middle and lower class people in this country have been squeezed and harvested infinitely. Today, an endless loop has been formed, and it is an endless loop with no solution. Today you can’t see any kind of hope that can change this transfer. In the next few decades, we can only watch this situation continue, and no one or any organization can stop it.
The translation of this sentence means that in the next few decades, no one or organization will prevent the price of Bitcoin from rising for a long time. When the currency price rises to the end, the global fiat currency system will collapse, and all the rich people in the world will no longer Settling with legal currency such as US dollar, Japanese yen, euro, etc., and using a certain currency on other blockchains, the price of Bitcoin may be 1 million US dollars or even 10 million US dollars at that time, because the legal currency withdrawal It has collapsed, and all the rich people in the world have abandoned fiat currency to buy assets such as bitcoin. At this time, it is no longer possible to measure its value by withdrawing fiat currency to denominate bitcoin.
Therefore, this is the factor that determines the long-term rise in the price of Bitcoin. The more failed the withdrawal of existing legal currency, the more crazy Bitcoin will rise.
So what about the mid-term determinants? In fact, we have also talked about it in previous programs. It depends on the epidemic. As long as the epidemic is not over for a day, the speed of central banks around the world will not stop. If the water is not stopped, the smartest money in the world will continue to flow into In terms of the best assets, there is no doubt that Bitcoin is the best intellectual property in the world today. This asset is much more important than Moutai, Apple mobile phones, and Tesla Motors, because for the rich people in the world, Without Moutai, I want to drink Wuliangye, without Apple, I want to use Samsung, without Tesla, I want to drive a BMW, but without Bitcoin, he is gone, and Bitcoin has no substitute today.
So, if the epidemic is not extinguished in the future, the release of water will not stop, and the rise of currency prices will be difficult to stop without stopping the release of water. This logic is simple and easy to understand.
As for the short-term judgment, it depends on the news. When Musk calls to place an order, the currency will rise, and Grayscale is calling for a single currency to rise. In case a certain country issues some negative normal currency, it will fall, so , The short-term rise and fall of the currency price depends on the news. There are various news in the currency circle every day that are difficult to distinguish between true and false. When you see a bad news and you just sold the currency, then the news that refuted the rumor came out, and the currency price immediately took off. , After you saw the price of the currency rising, you just bought it, but a real big profit came out, so you felt like cutting the meat, but just after cutting the meat, a major profit came out again, and the price of the currency immediately skyrocketed, this is the currency circle , the general direction is rising, but the process is tortuous. In the future, even if the price of Bitcoin rises to 1 million US dollars, the majority of people will lose money by speculating in Bitcoin, because most people only focus on the short term and not on the medium and long term. .
What about Ethereum? The factors that determine the long-term price of Ethereum depend on the development scale and social attention of the entire blockchain industry, because today’s Ethereum is the 2.0 of the blockchain, it is the infrastructure of the blockchain, and even it can represent the blockchain industry. The most advanced technology of the block chain, the search index of Google and Baidu Ethereum is getting higher and higher recently, which also proves this. After this wave of bull market, Ethereum will also become famous at one stop, and it will become a block chain like Bitcoin. true spokesperson.
Therefore, the factor that determines the long-term of Ethereum is the degree of attention of the entire blockchain industry. As long as more and more people recognize the value of this blockchain and realize that blockchain can promote the improvement of the productivity of the entire society, then who will Nothing can stop the rise in the price of Ethereum.
Well, in the mid-term, it depends on the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 in the mid-term. As long as the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 can be completed smoothly, then the blockchain 3.0 will still be Ethereum, because Ethereum 2.0 will greatly improve the area. The basic performance of the block chain, after the 2.0 upgrade, a large number of applications closely related to our lives will be implemented on Ethereum. At that time, the price of Ethereum is likely to be more than 10 times the price of today's currency.
Finally, let’s talk about the factors that determine the short-term currency price of Ethereum. Like Bitcoin, news can also dominate the price of Bitcoin. In addition, the popularity of DeFi can also determine the trend of Ethereum to a large extent. As long as defi becomes more and more active in the future, there will be no basis for Ethereum to plummet.
However, the popularity of this wave of DeFi will most likely last until the second half of this year. Therefore, we can make a bold prediction that this wave of bull market will most likely last for more than half a year. What will happen in half a year? We walked and watched.
