Today's bull market is equivalent to which stage of the 2017 bull market?

Hello, here is the 8-minute blockchain, today is Sunday, January 31, 2021,

Let’s talk about the market. I saw the price of the currency skyrocketing yesterday. Some students said that they were slapped in the face? It seems that the so-called monthly consolidation does not exist in a bull market. Then do I exist or not? Let's see the historical data. Let's take a look at the first picture of the program manuscript. This picture is the trend chart of Bitcoin's 2013 bull market.

In this picture, I have marked 4 points for you. Let’s look at the first point first. This point is the point where the bull market started in 2013. How do you judge it? Before the start of this wave of bulls, there was also a long period of shocks. From August 2012 to January 7, 2013, the shocks lasted for more than 4 months. Finally, the direction was finally chosen. , as long as it is horizontally and as high as it is vertically, this wave of rising has reached 230 US dollars in one breath, and it only took 4 months for the currency price to rise from 13 US dollars to 230 US dollars. Dare you say it is not a bull market?

The situation after reaching $230 is very similar to the situation of Bitcoin today. Due to the heavy profit taking in the early stage, the market needs to be adjusted urgently. What about this adjustment? It is calculated on a monthly basis. As you can see this time, the overall cycle is adjusted from the second point to the position before the third circle. The specific time cycle is from April to October in 2013 , The adjustment cycle of this wave of bulls is 6 months, and the adjustment price is adjusted from 230 US dollars to 120 US dollars, which is close to a 50% drop.

Then immediately after the adjustment in the middle of the bull market, the last crazy performance began. From the end of October, it started to rise wildly. In the late stage of the bull market, the increase was close to 10 times. It took only 2 months for the price to rise from 120 US dollars to 1100 US dollars. , and finally ended the 13-year bull market, and then fell from $1,100 to $150, a drop of up to 95%.

You see, in the bull market of 2013, was there any adjustment in the middle, and was it an adjustment calculated by An Yuelai.

Okay, let’s look at the big bull market in 2017, whether there is a bull market that calculates the correction on a monthly basis, and you will open the second picture in the article of the program.

In this picture, I also marked 5 points for you. Let’s look at the first position first. The corresponding time at that time was December 2016. If we simply look at it from the k-line, the currency price reached this point. Position Bull has basically determined the big bull market in 2017, and the judgment basis is also very simple. The currency price has been fluctuating around $750 since June 2016, and has been fluctuating for 6 months until December 23, 2016. When it breaks through the oscillating range of 850 dollars, it actually means that the direction has been selected. If you look at the weekly line, you will find that there have been 7 consecutive positives at the weekly level. It is basically certain that the next bull market will start. This method It is very easy to use. Last year, that is, in 2020, when the bitcoin weekly line showed 7 consecutive positives, when the currency price was around 8,000 US dollars, I specially gave a lecture in my paid group, saying that the bull market has basically been confirmed. Later, I put this class on our program for free half a month later, you can go back and listen to it, so that when the next wave of bull market comes, you will have a sense of it. Therefore, purely from the perspective of the market, the bull market in 2017 actually started on December 23, 2016. Of course, when we want to confirm the bull market, we have to wait until the position of 2, because the currency price has reached the position of 2 , Has it already broken through the previous high? It was the previous high of 1163 US dollars set in 2013. The corresponding time at that time was March 2017. If the currency price breaks through the previous high of an effective breakthrough, and it is still the previous high of a large-scale breakthrough, if you still doubt the bull market, it can only mean that You are not suitable for speculating in coins. Just like today when the price of the currency effectively broke through 20,000 US dollars, the market has always reached the point of view of the bull market. That is, when the bull market of this round is below 20,000, only a small number of people have seen the bull market, exceeding 20,000 million dollars, the consensus of this bull market has basically been reached.

Then, the next step is the adjustment of Niuzhong. Look at the position I marked 3 in the picture. The corresponding currency price at that time was around 2900. When the currency price reached this position, it was adjusted for about 2 months. It is also calculated on a monthly basis, and the adjustment range of that wave is quite large. The price of the currency directly fell back from the high point of around US$2,900 to around US$1,800, and the retracement rate was as high as 40%. The specific callback time is from June 6th to August 5th when the volume broke through the previous high, and then a new market started.

So, why did the currency price pull back for such a long time when it was at $2,900? The first reason is the same as the reason for this callback. It is because the currency price rose too fast in the early stage, with a 3-fold increase in 3 months.

The second reason is that at that time, there was a very famous Bitcoin community called Wanbashenjiao, which kept shouting that if Bitcoin broke through the 2013 bull market price twice, it would rise to 18,000 RMB, and outsiders thought that this community People with brain problems, especially after 2013, when the currency price fell from 1100 US dollars to 150 US dollars in one breath, everyone thought that the Bitcoin bubble had burst, and there would be no more chances in the future, and it would never get up again , How could it possibly rise to 18,000 a piece. That is, the mainstream voice at that time did not recognize it. At that time, the community called for 18,000 to ask for 100,000 U.S. dollars today, which is actually an exaggeration, because the fundamentals of Bitcoin at that time were very poor, no institutions came to speculate, and it did not have the high popularity it is today.

But now, on June 6, 2017, Bitcoin really broke through 18,000, so everyone thinks that this wave of bull market has reached its peak, so let me predict that the price of the currency will rise to 50,000 US dollars, or 60,000 US dollars The US dollar is the same. Now that the price has reached this price, then I will sell it. If there are too many people selling it, it will open if it thinks that it will pull back.

This is the first wave of adjustments in the 17-year bull market. The following adjustments in 94 have been experienced by many old listeners who listened to the program. On September 4, 7 ministries and commissions jointly issued an announcement to shut down domestic exchanges. This wave has After more than a month of adjustment, this wave of corrections is also quite large. The price of the currency fell from 4,900 US dollars to 2,900 US dollars, and the retracement rate is also about 40%.

After this wave of callbacks, it is the last madness. From the end of October 2017, domestic exchanges have been going overseas one after another. Everyone has a look, hey, although domestic speculation is not allowed, it is the same when I go abroad, and the currency price not only does not fall Yes, and broke through the previous high. After this time, everyone will no longer be afraid of a certain country or government interfering in Bitcoin transactions, because your intervention is useless, and it cannot prevent the rise of the currency price, but also boosts it. Everyone’s belief in Bitcoin, so the leeks who sold coins on September 4th began to buy coins crazily. Obviously, when everyone is crazy, it is the end of the bull market, and at the end, that is, 2017 On December 16, 2019, the currency price reached its peak when it reached US$19,666, and then came out of the 2-year bear market.

In the end, I came to the conclusion that during the bull market, there was also a monthly correction. The 13-year bull market was adjusted for 6 months, and the 2017 bull market was also adjusted for more than 3 months. Therefore, this round of bull market has a high probability Not surprisingly, there will also be an adjustment period calculated on a monthly basis. The adjustment period of about 3 months I mentioned in the live broadcast actually came about in this way, and it is still in the adjustment period today, at least today’s currency price is still Below the 5-day line, it means that the adjustment is not over yet.

Finally, please think about the question. Do you think the currency price today is roughly equivalent to the price at that stage of the bull market in 2017? Welcome to write your answer in the comment area.