Where is the end of the bull market viewed from the Bitcoin and Tesla pump? | Roast Star Selection

Recently, both Bitcoin and Tesla have skyrocketed, and now one ranks 6th and the other ranks 8th, and the founder of Tesla, Elon Musk, has become the richest man in the world.

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Image credit: AssetDash

In fact, Tesla's stock and sales are far behind that of Ford, and it has just begun to make profits this year. But everyone's recognition of Tesla's changeability and the future of new energy, especially in the United States now, after the Democratic Party has won many votes in the Senate and House of Representatives. In the future, during President Biden's tenure, at least in the short term, any policy will be more submissive. It will not be obstructed by the Democrats and Congress as it was before Trump. Biden is also extremely supportive of new energy vehicles and clean energy. He wants the United States to return to international environmental protection.

So how should we look at Tesla stock or assets like Bitcoin?

First of all, I think the valuation system, especially the financial system, needs to be rethought. Because what we have learned, whether it is net present value, IRR (internal rate of return) or any valuation method, cannot accurately value these assets.

For example, Bitcoin, its beauty is because the founder has disappeared, and it will not have any information changes. But it is not useful, but it is recognized by everyone, and in such a frenzy, everyone will be willing to invest in it.

At that time, the epidemic spread to the U.S. stock market, and there were four consecutive circuit breakers within ten days. At that time, whether it was Tesla or other assets, it fell to 350 US dollars, and Bitcoin also fell from more than 10,000 US dollars to below 4,000 US dollars, at a speed like flowing water.

Looking back, compared to the present, Bitcoin did not skyrocket during the "Black Lives Matter" period, and it was still in a slow bottom process-because the entire market is short of money.

Obviously, the assumption of buying Bitcoin as a safe haven during a panic cannot be established, so what caused Bitcoin and Tesla to skyrocket?

It is printing money, printing money continuously.

The continuous printing of money has caused the dollar to fall, but in fact only 30% of the world's dollars are in the hands of Americans, while the remaining 70% are in the hands of non-Americans.

In other words, the United States prints money, and the whole world has to pay for it. With the money that is printed, Americans will use it to buy goods, drive up inflation, and then when the money printing is almost over, they will sell the assets. It means that the whole world pays for the money they print.

Under such preconditions, all commodities including Bitcoin and Tesla have continued to rise sharply.

At the same time, assets such as iron and copper are also rising sharply. So under such a general environment, coupled with Trump's unyielding character, he called 3 million people on Twitter to march in Washington.

But because more than 3 million people came to Washington, some demonstrators smashed the door and glass of the US Congress, and even snatched away the chairman's podium.

As a result, everyone will feel very confused, so Bitcoin skyrocketed and stabilized at around 40,000 now, or even higher.

This is also the reason for the decline. Grayscale stood up again and raised the price back.

In fact, it is printing money, everyone is not short of money, and life is no problem. At the same time, it was very idle, and all the shopping malls were closed, so they went to make troubles. After the troubles, everyone had money and bought assets like Bitcoin.

So why did Elon Musk become the richest man in the world today? Because Biden controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, and he is extremely supportive of the new energy vehicle industry, Tesla went up.

As far as it is now, the epidemic is still very serious, but it is not the reason for the rise of Bitcoin or Tesla, nor is the riot in Congress, it is just because of printing money.

Everyone has money in their hands, but they have nothing to do, and emotions are brought up, so they put money on large-scale gambling targets, which eventually led to new highs for Bitcoin and Tesla today.

But when the epidemic is no longer there or is not so serious, the United States will not continue to print money. After stopping printing money, it may start shrinking the balance sheet in the third quarter.

All these bubbles are produced by printing money.

So if the last wave of printing money is the last time, the effect will return to around the middle of this year, but from April to May, when all developed countries have been vaccinated, is there any need to print money again? I don't think it's necessary anymore.

So what to do with so much money printed? It must be recovered by shrinking the balance sheet, otherwise inflation, including interest rates, and the dollar will continue to fall, which is not good for the United States.

In this case, how should you allocate your assets and wealth? I think it is necessary to return to the way normal finance should be.

Currently, the U.S. dollar (USD) is the largest fiat currency in circulation. There are $1.95 trillion worth of Fed notes and coins in circulation, more than three-quarters of which consist of $100 and $20 bills, according to Fed data.

The second largest fiat currency is the Euro (EUR). A relatively new currency, the euro was first introduced in 2002 and is widely used across much of Europe and most EU member states. According to official statistics, as of November 2020, there were just over 1.4 trillion euros in circulation. Since the release of the euro, the volume has more than tripled, mostly in denominations of 20 and 50 euros.

The Renminbi (CNY) is the third most valuable currency in the world. There are about 8.16 trillion yuan in circulation, equivalent to $1.26 trillion, according to TradingEconomics.

The yen came in fourth. According to the Bank of Japan, there are at least 112.7 trillion yen in yen banknotes and coins in circulation, just under $1.1 trillion.

The only fiat currencies with M0 totaling more than $1 trillion are the U.S. dollar, the euro, the renminbi, and the yen. Currently, Bitcoin's circulating supply occupies the fifth-largest currency position, slightly ahead of the Indian Rupee. Rupee (INR) Current M0 is over INR 33 trillion which is over USD 452 billion.

Currently, there are 18.59 million bitcoins in circulation. Calculated at the current value ($38,329), the upper limit of Bitcoin M0 is $712.7 billion, which is more than half of the circulation of the Japanese yen and more than one-third of the circulation of the U.S. dollar. At this market cap, the Bitcoin supply is worth more than 170 fiat currencies.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the only asset people could choose to hedge against inflation was gold. Now, Bitcoin, which was conceived in the economic crisis, has become a better choice, especially after this year's halving, its scarcity is once again known to the world. Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, has gained more and more consensus from Wall Street. In addition, the current demand and supply relationship of Bitcoin has changed significantly, and the long-term appreciation potential of Bitcoin is expected to be recognized by more mainstream institutions and investors.