Looking back on the trajectory of Bitcoin in 2020, is 2021 a big bull?
In the blink of an eye, 2020 has also come to an end. It can be said that last year was the year that attracted the most attention in Bitcoin or the currency circle. Extremely greedy sentiment, even Bitcoin is sprinting to new highs for a long time, and continues to create new historical highs,
Keywords: Black Thursday, new crown, epidemic (2020/03/12)
March 12 was called "Black Thursday", and none of the assets in the global financial market was spared. The stock markets of many countries fell sharply. The Frankfurt DAX index in Germany, the Paris CAC40 index in France, and the London Financial Times 100 index all fell by 12.24%, 12.38%, and 10.93% respectively. The three major US stock indexes fell by more than 9%, of which the Dow fell by 9.99% , the Nasdaq fell 9.43%, U.S. stocks triggered a rare second circuit breaker, gold fell to $1,600 an ounce, and crude oil fell more than 8% at one point. As for Bitcoin, the total market value fell by nearly 40% in one day, the largest single-day drop in 2013, which was divided into two drops:
1) From 10:00 am UTC to 11:00 am UTC on March 12, the price of BTC dropped from $7300 to $5690.
2) From 23:00 UTC on March 12 to 2:15 UTC on March 13, BTC experienced a second drop, with the price falling from $5,800 to $3,900.
The sharp drop is generally explained as the rapid spread of the epidemic, the U.S. anti-epidemic policy is not as expected and announced that it will ban the entry of tourists from more than 26 European countries within 30 days, and the European Central Bank has not decided to cut interest rates, resulting in a comprehensive sell-off and liquidity in the asset market Sexual austerity. After this incident, the correlation between Bitcoin and various assets was brought up again, and the mainstream conclusion is that Bitcoin has the highest correlation with US stocks.
Keywords: halving (2020/05/12)
Bitcoin halving is one of the biggest events in Bitcoin this year. This production cut is highly anticipated, because from the performance of historical data, the Bitcoin halving event will catalyze the next round of bull market. At around 3:23 on May 12, Bitcoin completed its third halving since its birth at block height 630,000. The block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. The corresponding price of Bitcoin at the time of halving was about $8,541 . Interestingly, on the eve of the halving, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash. At 8 a.m. on May 10, the price of bitcoin fell sharply, falling by about 15% to $8,200 per coin in one hour, causing tens of thousands of people to be liquidated. After the halving was completed, Bitcoin gradually stabilized and rebounded after completing the bottom, and began to enter the shock. Regarding this halving drop, the general analysis is in favor of miners selling, because miners accumulated Bitcoin by selling before halving to obtain enough funds to support their business operations.
Keywords: DeFi (June-August)
Market review:
Market review:
On the last day of the New Year’s Day holiday yesterday, mainstream currencies once again made efforts to hit new highs. Bitcoin hit the historical high of 34,762, and then the market went back to test the support of 32,300. It is not as big as we imagined, and looking back at Ethereum, it is the same. From yesterday evening to the early morning of today, the market followed the market and started to pull up. This morning, it once reached above 1000, and then the market fluctuated downward and ran above 900. . Then, after I gave a bearish strategy, Bitcoin retreated to a minimum of around 27,800 and then rebounded in a short-term. The highest point reached 31,800 before the press release. The overall decline reached 5,800 points and then a short-term rebound of 4,000 points. Today, the overall fluctuation range is nearly 10,000. point! ! ! !
Market hotspots and warnings to us! ! ! !
1. Miners are selling BTC for profit, and the short-term selling pressure is still there
On December 10, market analysts believed that miners were bearish on Bitcoin and were looking for opportunities to sell their own Bitcoin. On December 11, Bitcoin hit a new low of $17,571, which further verified the possibility of miners selling sex.
The Bitcoin Miner Position Index, a measure that tracks the rate at which bitcoin leaves miners’ wallets, hit a three-year high, according to CryptoQuant. This trend suggests that miners may be selling BTC over-the-counter or on spot exchanges.
Miners typically sell bitcoin through spot or over-the-counter exchanges. When there is a sell-off on spot exchanges, it could exacerbate Bitcoin’s near-term selling pressure. When miners sell on an over-the-counter exchange, there is no immediate impact on the price of Bitcoin because they are sold directly to buyers.
3. Gainers are still selling Bitcoin
According to weekly on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin may pull back before rallying to new all-time highs as investors look to take profits ahead of the recent retest of $20,000, the report said:
“Should investors realize such profits, Bitcoin is expected to see a sideways correction or a downward price move.”
Concerned analysts believe that the active supply must remain low at all times, or preferably be brought down to a low level. In addition, the market demand should also increase. However, the demand is mainly driven by institutions such as Grayscale, and most long-term holders (2-3 years hoarding time) are selling their bitcoins.
Bitcoin bought in the price range between $5,428 and $11,000 is rapidly flowing into exchanges.
While bitcoin reaching $50,000 may be a long, if not difficult, short-term profit, retail traders will still sell heavily.
The risk game of institutions entering the market, don't be obsessed with institutional buying
