Why ordinary people shouldn’t vote for Li Xiaolai’s BOX
In the last article, some people questioned my "out of context" of BOX data, which was used to insinuate that BOX's performance was not good. And I originally marked the data of "only one year" in the article. It can be predicted that if I don't mention the source and calculation method of the data, no one will actually pay attention to the authenticity of the data.
Strictly speaking, yesterday’s data is nothing more than a molehill. If you want to know how much XIN is dragging your legs, you only need the following 3 pictures to see why BOX’s income is not as good as BTC: The data range of the picture is July 3, 2019 (BOX release date)
（BTC）
（EOS）
（Mixin）
Yesterday, the reason why I spent a lot of time sorting out the data and making comparisons was because I wanted the content to be more objective, and it would look more intuitive to readers. But I found that every time I diss voted for BOX, someone would stand up and confront me. (This is also the strength of Teacher Li)
In fact, it’s okay. Not many people are interested in what I usually write. The topics of BOX can attract more readers. No, today I will stop being coy and talk directly:
secondary title
1. Regular investment (hoarding coins) will definitely make money
The main similarity between hoarding coins and fixed investment is: long-term.
In the investment market, there has always been a kind of "discrimination", that is, there are always people who praise "long-term value investment" and despise "short-term price speculation".
People naturally like themselves to be good (at least in the eyes of others) and decent. Because of the large number of short-term speculation failures, people look down on short-term speculation even more. Naturally, people are more willing to summarize "long-term investment" as decent, and choose to be a good person.
However, the purpose of investment is actually only one:
profit!
Long-term and short-term are actually means.
Therefore, profit is the most! most! most! most! the most important. Don't seek extravagant fame, don't pursue beliefs, and don't be obsessed with bosses!
Well, the market has told most people that short-term speculation has a "high probability of losing money", so in this cycle we have seen that most people choose two long-term investment methods: fixed investment (some people use their mouths to make fixed investment) and hoarding coins to obtain To make a profit (achieve a purpose).
Compared with short-term speculation, long-term investment has a greater probability of profit. This conclusion is not controversial.
but!
but!
but!
Long-term investment has a higher probability of making money, but it does not mean that most people can make money.
Assuming that the probability of long-term investment profitability can reach 90%, then the remaining 10% is the probability of losing money.
A high probability "is not equal to" a 100% probability, and many people are confused here.
Therefore, according to this logical reasoning, long-term hoarding of coins also has a probability of losing money, and the result is not necessarily determined by the means, and this conclusion does not accept refutation.
Fixed investment is a smoother way to hoard coins. Hoarding coins does not necessarily make money. Similarly, fixed investment does not necessarily make money.
Fixed investment is more flexible and cost more average than stocking up. Fixed investment is also recommended by many bigwigs, and it is the most suitable investment strategy for ordinary people.
At the same time, regular investment is also a way for ordinary people to release the compound interest effect and "play magic". However, all profits require an assumption, and the same is true for fixed investment, that is:
The currency (investment target) you choose must rise in the future;
The currency (investment target) you choose must rise in the future;
The currency (investment target) you choose must rise in the future;
Yesterday's chart shows that if you decide to invest in EOS or XIN for one year, then you will lose money. (Below 1 is a loss)
Of course, you will definitely say that what you intercepted is one year's data, what if the time is prolonged?
Yes, after a long time, EOS and XIN have the probability of making you profitable.
However, why is it 100% sure that EOS and XIN will definitely develop in a good direction?
As mentioned earlier, high probability is not equal to 100% probability. When the EOS mainnet was launched in 2017, I think you also thought that blockchain 3.0 was coming.
Therefore, "long time" is equal to "good", "if you fall to the bottom, you will fight back from the Jedi", etc. These are some illogical sb conclusions.
There are two assumptions for making money with fixed investment:
First, the future must rise and exceed your cost price;
Second, you can hold it until the moment it rises;
The second condition, you can do it subjectively. And the first condition is not up to you, "the future must rise", this can only rely on your own "fuzzy judgment".
It is also because of this that many people are too lazy to study and think, and they are unwilling to make this "fuzzy judgment" from the bottom of their hearts. Because if you don't understand this circle, there is a high probability that you will make a wrong judgment, which will make you look stupid.
Therefore, many people choose to believe in Li Xiaolai's vague judgment. After all, Li Xiaolai has been in the circle longer than himself, and has more resources, knowledge, and ability than himself.
Moreover, if Li Xiaolai can also help you directly achieve the second condition (long-term holding), wouldn't it be better?
In my opinion, this is the reason why most people choose BOX!
Compared with the uncertainty of the first condition, it seems to be resolved because of Li Xiaolai.
However, what you need to know is that Li Xiaolai will also make mistakes. This is an uncertainty that most people who buy BOX cannot accept and are unwilling to mention.
What if ~assumption~ Li Xiaolai is wrong?
I think most of Li Xiaolai's students would choose to avoid this question.
Well, Li Xiaolai, did you miss it?
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2. The fixed investment cost is huge
Fixed investment is an excellent warehouse building strategy for depositing and withdrawing change and diluting costs. It gives people the feeling that the cost of fixed investment is very low.
And this is actually a saying based on "after the fixed investment makes a profit". If a person loses money in the fixed investment, then there is a high probability that this person will not speak out, because it seems so stupid, even if he loses money, he also loses money. time.
In my opinion, there are two types of fixed investment costs:
capital cost and time cost.
As for the cost of capital, everyone’s situation is different. I need to talk more here. More investment costs more, while less investment costs less. If it is a fixed investment with spare money, that is the most ideal state.
Time cost is the biggest cost of regular investment.
"Fixed investment" naturally takes time to accumulate, and a few short-term purchases are definitely not a fixed investment.
Taking Jiushen's point of view as an example, fixed investment, preferably 200 days as a cycle. Taking Li Xiaolai as an example, 7 years is a lifetime, and BOX can show its power only after two cycles.
Regarding BOX, Li Xiaolai suggested that the investment should be fixed for 7 years. How high is the time cost of 7 years? We cannot estimate with data.
The importance of the next 7 years can only be judged by the changes in the past 7 years. With the advancement of technology, the time density of 2020-2027 is likely to be greater than the 7-year period of 2013-2020.
If, I mean if, 7 years later, the judgment is wrong, then time becomes a visible cost compared to money. If judged correctly, time is also a huge cost relative to money.
All in all, in my opinion, "time cost and time cost of funds" (there is a difference between the two) is the biggest cost of fixed investment, and it is also a cost that many people choose to ignore because they think that fixed investment has a high probability of diluting the cost and making money at the same time.
As mentioned earlier, investing is all about making "fuzzy judgments". We can only choose "relatively unambiguous" currencies to place large bets, and "fuzzy" currencies to place small bets or not to place bets.
Li Xiaolai also made a similar analogy, which roughly means "if our life is compared to an egg, the eggshell part of the egg is the part that should be used for investment", that is to say, don't place heavy bets on investment.
In essence, this analogy is based on the cognition and control of "investment risk".
Let’s look at the component index of BOX again, 51% BTC, 39% EOS, 10% XIN.
If you were asked to score the fuzzy judgments of BTC, EOS, and XIN, the difference in the scores given by each person may be relatively large. (no argument here)
Buying BOX is actually buying Li Xiaolai's fuzzy judgment about the future. According to the 51% composition in BOX, it can be seen that Li Xiaolai's fuzzy judgment score for BTC is roughly 51 points, at least not lower than 51 points.
In short, in Li Xiaolai's judgment, the "unambiguous degree" of BTC is clearer than the "ambiguous degree" of EOS and XIN.
Remember, as mentioned earlier, the time cost of fixed investment.
Every ambiguity in the early stage will be multiplied by the time factor (fixed investment) and the risk will be magnified several times.
From the perspective of the composition of BOX, the future uncertainty of EOS and XIN will push the uncertainty of BOX to a higher level.
There is a saying that goes, "The rich can speculate, those with a little money must not speculate, and those without money should speculate."
I believe that most people in the currency circle fall into the category of "people with a little money".
This wave of Defi boom has actually clearly told us that the mainstream market is really not on EOS (ecology). Strictly speaking, XIN is still in the Beta stage.
Based on the above factors, there are many potential default conditions for making money through fixed investment BOX, at least, more than fixed investment BTC.
In my opinion, ordinary people can only choose BTC, the most "unambiguous" currency in the market, instead of betting on the "relatively vague judgment" in Li Xiaolai's cognition.
