Opinion: There is only a gray bull market, not a healthy bull market

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBingbang（ID：bingbang4444）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

The market plummeted yesterday. Some people said that the US version of 94 came (Coinbase), some said it was OKEx that opened up withdrawals, and some said it had risen too much~~

This~~is the blind man touching the elephant, we are all blind~an elephant is still an elephant.

Of course, I am also "blind" who wrote the article. In my opinion, the main reason is that Coinbase is facing supervision.

After Coinbase faced regulation, Grayscale’s big players were unable to use Coinbase’s leverage to borrow and borrow repeatedly through Grayscale arbitrage, that is, Grayscale’s funds would create resistance.

Under such a background, if Grayscale does not buy and buy, the upward momentum of Bitcoin will directly weaken, the market's expectations will be lowered, and profit-making investors will flee collectively, triggering a wave of cascades.

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Big picture, small waterfall

How big is the "waterfall"? Look at the picture:

7-day trend chart

365 day chart

All charts:

Is the waterfall huge?

The shorter the view, the larger; the longer the view, the smaller.

If you are not a professional trader, there is really no need to make a fuss~~

On the contrary, most of the people I see are waiting for $50,000 or $100,000 in Bitcoin, and if you can’t even afford this drop, then you are too small, how can you wait for $100,000?

I had an episode of the video before and criticized some people:

That is, I am unwilling to bear the decline of Bitcoin, and enjoy the rise of Bitcoin~~

Regarding grayscale buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, and now the market is almost one-sided:

After grayscale buying, buying and buying, GBTC cannot be redeemed! Then, it is equivalent to indirectly "destroying" the liquid BTC in the market, thereby reducing the supply and causing the price of Bitcoin to rise.

On November 25th, Grayscale raised another 300 million knives, holding a total of 700 million cash flow!

So, why did Grayscale buy it?

Behind Grayscale are ordinary "qualified investors". If these people give money, Grayscale will buy it! Grayscale acts as a middleman, the bigger the transaction volume, the happier it is.

And where does the investor's funds come from, Grayscale doesn't care?

As mentioned earlier, whether someone will continue to borrow from Coinbase to increase leverage through the premium of GBTC/BTC, we don’t know, but there is such a possibility!

If there is indeed such a phenomenon of leveraged arbitrage, how many people will buy GBTC in the stock market?

Moreover, I think: a bull market with only gray scale must not be a healthy bull market. Just as the market cannot keep rising, it is impossible for Grayscale to buy and buy all the time.

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A "healthy" bull market

What is a bull market?

From the perspective of Buffett's value investment philosophy, a healthy bull market is "value return", and Bitcoin has reached its true valuation level.

It is a pity that Bitcoin, as an alternative asset, does not have a reasonable valuation method so far. Instead, there are a lot of "bubble theory", "Ponzi scheme" and so on.

From the perspective of speculators (most people in the currency circle), a healthy bull market is "similar to the mad bull in 2017".

Although most people did not make money in 2017, most people just want to experience it again.

The so-called "healthy bull market" in the currency circle:

Distribute crazy money;

Bitcoin 100,000-300,000 USD;

Copycat a hundred times;

Such a phenomenon is actually a bubble~~ Is the bubble healthy? I don't know~~

There is a saying that "skimming the foam is beer". Most people in the currency circle don't need beer, but foam. (In addition, don't listen to this sentence in a bull market)

Therefore, a healthy bull market in the currency circle is a bubble, a bigger bubble! (Although this seems very negative, it is indeed the psychological activity of most people)

Speaking of institutions, if institutions are "long-term investors", then the price of Bitcoin is more like "value return".

The "return of value" can also bring speculative bubbles, which is what the bulls are particularly excited about in this cycle.

If the big bull market in 2017 was purely a "speculative" bubble, but this time, it is the dual driving force of value and speculation, and there is a high probability that a good result can be obtained.

If we regard "institutional long-term investment" as the value return of Bitcoin, such as being included in the 401K plan, etc., we need to pay attention to the following:

This round of Bitcoin bull market "may" not have such a high "value return" component as we imagined.

Because the "institutions" we see so far are all retail investors behind them. Paypal, Square, Grayscale are all~~

What "institutions" give to Bitcoin is "regulatory" acceptance, and the "express regulatory acceptance" of Bitcoin has not increased much compared to 2017.

But, having said that, compared to the pure hype in 2017, this round of bull market is indeed "healthier".