EOS has only expectations, no consensus

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBingbang（ID：bingbang4444）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Look at a picture first:

This picture is the backtest data of the block rhythm in the past few days. The backtest method is to buy the top 10 currencies (except USDT) by market capitalization (except USDT) for $100 on January 1, 2020. So far rate of return.

Among these currencies, ETH has the highest rate of return of 210%, and the only currency with a negative rate of return is EOS, with a rate of return of -1%. (Currently positive earnings)

EOS fans can only be "disturbed" when they see such data~~

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1. Expected value

The rise in currency prices (assets) depends entirely on expectations. Index funds rely on investors' expectations for national fortunes; gold relies on investors' expectations for hedging risks.

As an emerging industry, encrypted assets need investors' expectations (imagination) as the first driving force for buying without too many applications.

The reason why the expectation of EOS is "extraordinarily high" is thanks to ETH. In other words, the expectations of all public chains need to thank ETH.

Because before there was no ETH, no one knew that this field could produce such a strong explosion (rise).

It is conceivable that without ETH, it is still a question whether EOS will appear. As a latecomer to the public chain, it is natural to benchmark its own products against ETH.

We also saw a lot of articles about milk EOS in the last bull market, all comparing it with ETH from the perspective of performance and experience.

The higher the expected performance of EOS, the higher the investor's expectations for EOS.

Head Wang called Sanlang to hit 500, which means that EOS will probably be a hundred times currency. In the last bull market, the biggest increase of BTC was about 100 times, and that of ETH was 1000 times. According to the original expectations, it is not too much for EOS to rise 100 times.

But the biggest difficulty of EOS lies in: drive high and go low. (The expectations are too high, causing the mainnet to be far below expectations)

In the eyes of investors before the mainnet goes live, EOS will reach 1 million TPS when it comes out, killing ETH in seconds, and after the mainnet goes live, it will only be about 3000 TPS.

This gap makes many people look confused. Then someone mentioned that in the future, the node can upgrade the equipment to reach 1 million TPS. This statement transfers most people's expectations to the EOS ecology.

It was at that time that EOS launched a wave of DAPP gambling projects. And the only one who can really make a profit through spinach is the project party~~Will the spinach project party earn EOS and hold it? Most likely not!

After the DAPP channel fails to achieve large-scale development, investors can only lower their expectations again (it’s good to get back the cost). Immediately after B1's inaction and continuous consumption, and then to this year's DeFi, EOS was complained as "the stupidest public chain".

After the mainnet landed, expectations and prices never returned to their original peaks.

At the same time, every hot miss in the market continues to consume the expectation of EOS. At this time, all those who should go are gone, and those who have not left, continue to keep their only expectations and B1 to consume~~

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2. EOS consensus

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I believe that every user who holds EOS has asked himself this question countless times:

Where is the difference between EOS? Why can't it surpass ETH?

I think, I can only say: EOS is actually not bad.

Where is EOS not bad?

b) The number of addresses (accounts) has been increasing, TPS has been expanding, and the ecology has been improving (Dafengshou, Newdex, etc.);

c) Big exchanges are constantly accepting EOS;

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Where is the difference between EOS?

consensus!

There may be many people who are not aware of it. The EOS community can be said to belong to the third category. How can there be a lack of consensus?

The consensus I mentioned here is based on the "consensus of expectations", rather than the reckless "community popularity = consensus".

For example, BTC, no matter how low the price of the currency is, although it will affect the "overall consensus" to a certain extent, there will always be a "partial consensus" (giant whale) to support the recovery of the currency price. (ETH is slightly worse)

EOS will also have the "partial consensus" mentioned above, but the problem is that the desolation of the EOS ecology, the degree of decentralization of EOS tokens, and the decline in prices highlight the meagerness of the "partial consensus".

When the "partial expected value consensus" cannot resist the disintegration of the "overall expected value consensus", there is naturally no reason for the market price to pick up.

Therefore, when big funds face EOS, ETH, and BTC, there is a high probability that they will not choose EOS.

This is also the reason why most retail investors cannot afford first-hand Moutai, but Moutai has been rising.

Where the big money is, the probability of rising there is higher. (Note that it is a probability, not an increase)

The popularity of DeFi this year has clearly reflected the shortcomings of EOS under the "big capital consensus". This is where EOS is really weak.