Three points of confusion brought about by Bitcoin skyrocketing

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBingbang（ID：bingbang4444）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Every time I throw snacks to my golden retriever, I always wonder "why even my golden retriever can accurately judge the arc of the parabola and catch the snacks in one bite!" Not a smart dog~~

Maybe linear thinking is buried in the underlying genes of organisms, so that we can't escape the solidification of "linearity" when we think about anything.

When it comes to the price of Bitcoin, what comes to my mind is:

a) The general trend chart of Bitcoin;

b) S2F model;

Wait for some information related to the history of Bitcoin, some of these things are radical, some are conservative. Naturally, they also influence my opinions and decisions.

In the past, I would use these things to fight for the sword to prove my conclusion. However, when the reality is more and more similar to history, I want to overthrow some of my previous logic.

I used to want Bitcoin to rhyme, to repeat itself according to history, and this repetition was a bit difficult for me to adjust to. It can be referred to as the Bitcoin legacy syndrome for short, or it can be regarded as a manifestation of "not confident".

Why this happens is mainly due to the following reasons:

1. There was no currency circle before 2016

I have mentioned many times that the currency circle in 2016 can hardly be called a "market". If you open the market chart and look at the transaction volume in 2016, you will find that there is almost no transaction volume before 2016~~

And in a market without much trading volume, its "price efficiency" is conceivably not available for reference.

However, most models will still include data before 2016, and then strengthen the "four-year cycle" to ensure the persuasiveness of the data model.

Now we don't know the validity of this conclusion, and I think there are "certain" problems with its logic. However, I did not have a reasonable explanation myself, or objectively described the phrase "the data are for reference only, not as investment advice".

2. The characteristics of the bull market are different

The biggest benefit of Bitcoin in the last bull market, I personally think it is the acceptance of the Chicago Board of Trade, and other news is basically just air~~

This bull market old cat also mentioned again that Bakkt will bring a super bull market, but unfortunately, it seems that the market does not buy Bakkt's account~~ Instead, it is the "gray horse" of Grayscale, which keeps buying, buying, and bringing There is a hint of FOMO~~

From this point of information, it can actually be found that old people like Lao Mao in the currency circle are not so accurate in the admission of institutions. As a retail investor, it will naturally be even more unprepared.

I don’t know the bull market in 2013, (it is said that the QQ pop-up Bitcoin brought the bull market) and I remember very clearly in 2017, it was ICO that triggered FOMO sentiment, and then BTC hit a new high.

And this cycle of DeFi is very similar to ICO, but in my personal opinion, DeFi did not bring much new capital, but FOMO between old leeks and old leeks.

But Bitcoin is about to break through the previous high, and the off-market USDT is still at a negative premium, which shows that domestic retail investors do not care at all~~

Most of us cannot know the characteristics of overseas leeks, which leads to the lack of an important dimension in our observation of the market.

I also agree with Jiang Zhuoer's point of view: if retail investors do not come, it is not called a bull market.

And this wave of market prices has already clearly seen that the "calmness" of domestic retail investors is terrible. Is it because leeks have evolved into big bosses? I do not think so.

3. Buy buy buy

We have never experienced the frantic buying and buying of institutions like now. Some people analyze that if Grayscale continues to buy, Grayscale will hold 1 million bitcoins in the next year (currently 500,000).

I was thinking, if it is this price, can I hold it? You need to know whether my target is 50,000 to 100,000, or should I adjust my target price, or I have become blindly optimistic because of the skyrocketing market.

at last:

I don't know~~

at last:

The bull market has always been beyond our imagination, and according to logic, the madness of retail investors will exceed our imagination.

If Newton's golden sentence:

I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies, but I cannot calculate the madness of human nature.