Data perspective DeFi concept currency: the average valuation exceeds 60 times, and the "farming" process is over half

特邀专栏作者

2020-08-31 10:00 (UTC+8)

This article is about 3043 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

Through the data, we will focus on looking forward to the future direction of the DeFi concept currency. Will it skyrocket when it goes online or break when it goes online? As an asset, what is the scale and potential of DeF concept currency compared wit

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Data Analyst | Edited by Carol | Produced by Bi Tongtong | PANews

DeFi has entered the "farming era". At this time, the "farmers" who "planted melons" got not only "melons", but also more valuable "gems".

According to PAData’s previous statistics, since income farming became popular, the average increase of DeFi concept coins has exceeded 240%, and the highest increase even exceeded 800%, nearly 10 times [1]. In the past two days, YFI and YFII have started a crazy rising mode. According to statistics, YFI became the first 10,000-fold currency in 2020 within 43 days.

The market began to carnival, even crazy. Not only are "wealth passwords" appearing one after another, but the Gas fee of Ethereum has also hit new highs repeatedly. At the same time as the crazy rise, many investors also have some concerns about the prosperity of DeFi. On the one hand, this hidden worry comes from the ever-existing security risks of DeFi contracts, and on the other hand, it comes from the worry about whether the bubble will burst after the market value of DeFi concept coins is inflated.

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The average daily volatility of DeFi concept currency is about 18%

According to data from CoinMarketCap, since August, the prices of 16 DeFi concept coins including COMP, BAL, YFI, SNX, and LEND have risen by an average of over 75%. Among them, the highest increase is FYI, which soared from US$3808.3 on August 1 to US$14467.9 on August 24, an increase of nearly 280%. Secondly, the overall increase of REN, LEND and IDEX in August also exceeded 100%. BNT, KNC, and MKR have lower gains, and their gains since August are all less than 15%.

Under the general rise, it is worth noting that CRV continued to fall after it went online. The closing price on August 14 was still $11.61, and it only closed at $2.9 on August 24. The overall drop reached 75. %. CRV is the latest DeFi concept currency to go online within the scope of this statistics. Its trend of breaking when it goes online is completely different from most of the previous DeFi concept coins that skyrocketed when it went online. This presents a risk, that is, it has lasted for 2 months The high heat may have triggered investors' concerns about future asset bubbles, which in turn will generate greater selling pressure. Although DeFi concept coins are still emerging in an endless stream, it may be difficult to replicate the successful path of those early projects.

Moreover, the high returns of DeFi concept coins are accompanied by high volatility. According to statistics, since August, the average daily volatility of the 16 DeFi concept currencies is about 18%, which is significantly higher than the 5.57% average daily volatility of the TOP 30 digital currencies in the second quarter of this year.

In particular, CRV, which was launched recently, has an average daily volatility of 81.30%. This is mainly due to the violent fluctuations within two days of its launch, which has raised the overall average. Recently, its daily average volatility has dropped to about 15%. Compared with other DeFi The average daily volatility of concept coins is close to that.

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The scale of DeFi concept currency is still smaller than other assets,Only accounted for 3.9% of the overall market

According to CoinGecko's statistics, as of August 25, the total market value of DeFi concept coins accounted for only 3.9% of the entire digital currency market. From the perspective of market value, even DeFi, which has been booming for two months, is still very small.

But despite this, the DeFi concept currency has demonstrated its important position in the market with its large number and top market value ranking. Within the scope of this statistics, LEND has the largest market value, which is about 941 million US dollars, ranking second among DeFi concept coins and 27th among all digital currencies. Currently, the only DeFi concept coins with a market value of TOP 30 are LINK and LEND. Secondly, the market value of SNX, MKR, and COMP has also exceeded 500 million US dollars, and this level of market value can rank among the top 35 among all digital currencies. The market value of the popular project YFI is about 399 million U.S. dollars, ranking 8th among DeFi concept coins and 43rd among all digital currencies. (Note: Due to the continuous rise of YFI on August 29th and August 30th, as of August 30th, YFI has jumped to the first place in the market value of DeFi tokens, up to 995 million US dollars)

In addition, the market value of tokens ranked after 20 in the DeFi concept has already ranked above 90 among all digital currencies, and they belong to long-tail assets, such as BNT, CRV, GNO, IDEX, KAVA, etc., and their market value is mostly Not to exceed $100 million.

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The average valuation is 60 times,Compound and Balancer revenue may exceed 50 million US dollars

Asset prices are affected by economic models, and their level cannot directly evaluate an asset, but the valuation logic behind the price can provide a meaningful reference for evaluating assets. So, at the current asset price level, is the market overvaluing DeFi concept coins?

Before valuation, it is first necessary to predict the returns of these DeFi products. According to the statistical caliber of Token Terminal, annualized revenue = annualized total transaction volume (referring to the total transaction volume for which the agreement charges fees) * fee rate. According to the average daily income in the last 30 days, if the transaction volume remains generally stable, the annualized total income of both Compound and Balancer will exceed US$50 million. It can be seen that Compound, which was the first to carry out liquidity mining, not only achieved a 54-fold increase in loan size through this incentive scheme, but also achieved a high growth in the total revenue of the agreement.

In addition, Terra, Kyber, Synthetix, Curve, and Bancor are all expected to generate more than $6 million in total annualized revenue. But only from the perspective of handling fees, the estimated annualized income of Maker, 0x, Loopring, Kava, and Gnosis does not exceed $700,000.

According to the current currency price, the current circulating market value and the fully diluted market value can be estimated, that is, at the current price, the market value formed after all tokens are released, and then together with the annualized total income, the market sales of each DeFi concept currency can be estimated Rate. The price-to-sales ratio is the most valuation method. It is a market ratio that has emerged in the international capital market in the past two years and is mainly used in high-tech companies. Generally speaking, the price-to-sales ratio is inversely proportional to the value of the investment.

At present, the DeFi concept currency with the lowest price-to-sales ratio is BAL, which is about 3.29, followed by COMP and CRV, which are about 9.98 and 7.67 respectively. On the contrary, 0x, LRC, and MKR have high price-to-sales ratios, with the highest 0x reaching 1345.57. Since the price-to-sales ratios of different projects vary greatly, extreme values will have a significant impact on the average value, so the median will better reflect the current average valuation level of DeFi concept coins. According to statistics, the current average price-to-sales ratio of DeFi concept coins is about 60.21.

If compared with the A-share market, where is this valuation level in the market? According to the statistics of Baigujing, as of August 28, the price-to-sales ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was about 2.09, that of CITIC Securities was about 8.32, that of Ping An was about 1.21, and that of Moutai was about It's 23.30. Overall, the overall average valuation of the DeF concept currency is much higher than that of A-share financial stocks, and also higher than that of Moutai, which has a higher market-to-sales ratio.

If it is based on the current market price, when all the tokens are released, the valuation level will rise sharply, the overall average level will reach 153.96, even the lowest BNT will reach 19.43, and the highest ZRX will even exceed 2000. This means that the current currency price may need to be supported by higher growth business volume in the future.

Judging from the overall process of DeFi concept currency, it has entered the middle of the "farming era". The average amount of tokens released by each project has exceeded 62%, and YFI, which has the fastest progress, has circulated 29,963 of the 30,000 total, with a circulation rate of 99.87%. The circulation of LEND, BNT, MKR, REN, KNC, and LRC has also exceeded 80%. Only a small number of projects have been online for a short time, and the circulation rate is still at a low level.