Wide fluctuations and high positions change hands, USDT continues to issue more

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-08-24 21:41 (UTC+8)

This article is about 8598 words, reading the full article takes about 13 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 34th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 34th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 34th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week’s market trend: Wide volatility and high level change hands, USDT continues to issue more
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 11.68%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 1.30%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Slightly Down, Market Remains Extremely Greedy
Futures contracts: The long and short sides continue to play games, and the total amount of open contracts has risen
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: Wide fluctuations and high turnover, USDT continues to issue more

As of the statistical time of the report (August 24, 2019), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$370.2296 billion, an increase of 1.80% from the same period last week; The average was down 0.40%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 1.54%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 2.31%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 2.76%.

This week, the market has pulled back from highs, the market turnover can be enlarged, and investor sentiment remains extremely greedy.At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range of around 370-380 billion US dollars, and then the market center moved down slightly, reaching a minimum of 358 billion US dollars. It rebounded above 370 billion US dollars in late trading, and the daily average value of the total market value rose by 1.80% compared with last week. In the external market, various risk assets were mixed this week, US stocks closed up slightly, and gold prices fell for two consecutive weeks.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 11.68%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 1.30%

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 1.15%, USDT balance increased by 4.22%

Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend。

Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend

Source: TokenMania

Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

5. USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index closed down slightly, down 23.94% from the same period last week; the Bitcoin Volatility Index opened at 2.13, the highest value was 3.55, the lowest value was 1.28, the closing value was 1.62, and the closing value was 23.94% lower than the same period last week; The fear & greed index was 82 points 7 days ago, the highest point this week was 83 points, and the lowest point was 75 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index was 76 points, which was 6 points lower than the 82 points in the same period last week. Stay extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: The game between long and short sides continues, and the total amount of open interest contracts rises

From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts of different durations generally maintained a state of premium this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continued to play games. In late trading, the premium turned into a discount, and the total amount of open contracts hit a high point.Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Various risk assets were mixed this week, with U.S. stocks closing up slightly, and bitcoin and gold prices falling.Source: TokenMania

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: TokenMania

9. Summary

Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction; the Bitcoin market has recently recovered, and prices have risen again. In the long run, digital currencies are relatively low in valuation. Digital currency deserves some allocation as an alternative asset.

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market has pulled back from highs, the market turnover can be enlarged, and investor sentiment remains extremely greedy.At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range of around 370-380 billion US dollars, and then the market center moved down slightly, reaching a minimum of 358 billion US dollars. It rebounded above 370 billion US dollars in late trading, and the daily average value of the total market value rose by 1.80% compared with last week. In the external market, various risk assets were mixed this week, US stocks closed up slightly, and gold prices fell for two consecutive weeks.

The price of Bitcoin fluctuated widely this week. At the beginning of the week, it continued the rally last week and soared above $12,000. After a short period of sideways trading at the high level, the price fell back below $12,000 on Wednesday, maintaining a wide range of shocks as a whole. From the perspective of the market, the current market remains high, the total amount of open interest in Bitcoin hit a historical high intraday, market trading activity rose, and investor sentiment remained greedy. During the same period, the total amount of USDT in circulation increased by more than 6% this week. The USDT balance on the exchange increased by more than 4%, and the USDT premium rate basically maintained a positive premium range. Although the price retreated this week, it remained above the key point and rebounded again in late trading. Overall, the current price has a certain Support; Considering the heavy chip pressure level above 12,000 US dollars, there is resistance to cashing in during the profit-taking stage, and it may be difficult to achieve an effective breakthrough in the short term. Open positions at low levels, sell high and absorb low in the range; at the same time, it is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risk-optimized platforms, strictly control positions, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 11.68%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 1.30%.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 280.40%, a decrease of 3.69% or 1.30% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 46.18%, the lowest was 31.82%, and the extreme value difference was 14.36 percentage points. Hand rate topped the list, up 4.79% from last week.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are EOS (699.56% this week, up 32.00% or 4.79% from last week), ETC (602.84% this week, down 21.98% or 3.52% from last week) , LTC (547.30% this week, up 78.49% from last week, up 16.74%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (70.07% this week, down 10.88% from last week, down 13.44%), BTC (74.57% this week, down 4.49% from last week, down 5.68%), XLM (85.40% this week, down 7.14% from last week, down 7.72%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 1.15%, USDT balance increased by 4.22%.The BTC wallet balance on the exchange this week was 2,279,912 BTC, a decrease of 1.15% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 3.943 billion USDT, an increase of 4.22% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, 20) It was US$12.81448 billion, an increase of 6.26% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading.This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range and fell back slightly, maintaining a positive premium in late trading. The current premium rate is still in a relatively reasonable range as a whole. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.04% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.29%, a minimum premium of -0.06%, and a closing premium of 0.02%. As BTC prices remain high and volatile, the USDT premium rate has fluctuated slightly in the positive premium range recently.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX is down slightly, and the market remains extremely greedy.This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index closed down slightly, down 23.94% from the same period last week; the Bitcoin Volatility Index opened at 2.13, the highest value was 3.55, the lowest value was 1.28, the closing value was 1.62, and the closing value was 23.94% lower than the same period last week; The fear & greed index was 82 points 7 days ago, the highest point this week was 83 points, and the lowest point was 75 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index was 76 points, which was 6 points lower than the 82 points in the same period last week. Stay extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: Contracts with different durations generally maintained a state of premium this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continued to play games. The premium turned into a discount at the end of the day, and the total amount of open contracts hit a high point. The total open interest of Bitcoin futures this week reached US$5 billion on August 21, a record high; among them, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$364 million, an increase of 23% from last week. The high was $16.9 million, down 15% from last week. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.42%; the average premium of the next week’s contract was 0.75%, and the premium increased by 0.47 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium was 1.95%, with a premium of 1.95%. An increase of 0.06 percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.03%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has a latest discount of 0.49%, the latest quarterly contract price has a latest discount of 0.44%, and the latest BitMEX perpetual contract price has a latest discount of 0.03%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 53.14%:46.86%, with long positions dominant. This week, the forward contract prices remained high and fluctuated, and investor sentiment remained greedy. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continued to play games. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize platforms, and prevent bursts caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime. warehouse.

Macro perspective: Various risk assets were mixed this week, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher, and Bitcoin and gold prices fell.The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

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