A large number of buying orders maintain 9200, and the currency price has not risen for a long time. I have seen through the script of the main force

Today's Direction

Viewpoint: bearish

supply and demand

supply and demand

Today's performance in terms of supply and demand is a bit interesting. After closing at 8 o'clock this morning, I received a K that was about the same volume as PINBAR the day before. The difference is that it closed at a low level and left a little shadow line. This will open my bearish view Ideas, the reasons are as follows:

1. Why is there a lower shadow? Who is buying?

A: The reason behind the lower shadow line is that there is buying intervention in this position (knowledge point), but what kind of people are this group of people? Is it the main force? Or retail investors? According to the PA theory, 50%-618% of PINBAR will have reasons for PA traders to buy. As shown in the figure below, did the price just hit 618 and rebound? these are the people

2. Isn't it good news that someone buys it? Why bearish?

Looking forward, there is a blue band at 9200, which was pulled back after breaking down for 8 consecutive days. There are many people buying here (price 9200), but if you are careful, you will find that the price did not rebound quickly, and the big Yang line rushed High, right? It even gets lower and lower every time, indicating that the demand behind it is insufficient, and there are no more bullish forces willing to follow this wave of bottom-hunting forces

This is actually related to the recent performance of the A-share bull market. The incremental capital in the market is limited, and the profit-seeking nature of capital determines that wherever there are hot spots, they will go there. They don’t care what your BTC is. I am only here for the money-making effect, and I will not come without me. There is no incremental capital, which is a reason why there are no bulls to follow.

3. Closing at a low level is a high probability confirmation of short positions

Take 2, in the past 8 days, none of the days closed below 9200, right? At 8:00 this morning, it closed below 9200. Are those people who are buying and doing long mentioned in point 1 currently in a state of no profit or loss or a small floating profit?

And what is the nature of the market?

Always move against the trend in the direction expected by the investing public

If the public thinks that it is going up, there is a high probability that it will go down (refer to the long-short views of Weibo big V analysts)

Watch it a few times and you'll see what I'm talking about

4. Will it fall? Where did you admit your mistake?

There is no trading point of view that will happen 100% of the time. If so, I don’t know. I know that based on the current facts, which side is stronger, the long side or the short side, and following the strong side is a matter of high probability of winning, but it does not mean There is a small probability that things will not happen

In order to avoid, there must be a good enough "mistake mechanism"

To put it bluntly, it is "stop loss"

Placement of stop loss = position where the idea is rejected

This has a lot of content, I have time to write an article specifically

form

Same as yesterday, the triangle converges at the end, there is no obvious long-short direction, more depends on the performance of 9150, if the short breaks through 9150 and quickly falls below and cannot return to 9200, it will open a short-term short-term situation, on the contrary, it is more bullish

index

The price continues to run below the middle track, bearish

mainstream strategy

BTC

mainstream strategy

ETH

Maintain yesterday's judgment, 9200 will be withdrawn after a false break, when it breaks through, it will be an obvious short trend, before the breakout, it will be dealt with shocks, if it can break through, it will be empty, if it can't break much, the pressure above 9276 can be used as the key long-short watershed today , You can operate in the range of selling high and buying low before breaking through. Once the breakthrough is confirmed, the market will be at least 1,000 dollars up and down. Be patient!

EOS

The support of 236.6 is not very reliable anymore, pay attention to the trading opportunities of anti-drawing and shorting, the pressure is 239.52, the support is 236, 233

BCH

Bearish, pay attention to when 226 can be broken, there will be buying between 227-228 to intervene in the bottom, short and long opportunities, the trend is bearish

Hot coins

LINK

Hot coins

ADA

The general trend continues to be bullish, short-term small levels have the risk of a callback, pay attention to whether it can break 8.3, break it to form an M top, do not break the shock, and the more critical support is at 7.8