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Why does the reduction of BTC mining difficulty mean that the bottom is coming soon?
小葱区块链
特邀专栏作者
2020-03-27 04:45
This article is about 1006 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes
Five times in the history of Bitcoin, the mining difficulty has been lowered by more than 10%. Usually this marks the arrival of a bottom, but there are exceptions.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromNakamoto Shallot (ID: xcongapp), Odaily is authorized to publish.

Nakamoto Shallot (ID: xcongapp)

Nakamoto Shallot (ID: xcongapp)

, Odaily is authorized to publish.

According to data from OKLink.com, at 10:51:46 on March 26, the Bitcoin network ushered in a major difficulty adjustment. This time the difficulty was adjusted to 13.91T, a drop of up to 15.95%. This is the fifth time in the history of Bitcoin that the mining difficulty has been reduced by more than 10%. It has brought bottoms in the past, but there have been exceptions. During the first week of December 2018, Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped by 15.13%, but the price of Bitcoin did not rebound until four months later.

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Big mining difficulty cuts usually signal a bottom, but there are exceptions

Miners, especially small miners or mining centers, usually suspend their operations when the price of bitcoin drops significantly below their mining breakeven costs. Large mining centers have the ability to continue to support mining at a loss, because large mining farms tend to reserve cash. At the same time, mining organizations with a certain scale usually have long-term contracts with power units, which makes it more difficult for large mining farms to shut down equipment and end operations in a short period of time.

Normally, when investors and small miners panic and flee from the market, the price of bitcoin is about to start to rebound. However, that was not the case with the mining difficulty drop in 2018.

In late 2018, there were several difficulty adjustments before the price of Bitcoin rebounded, and after the first major difficulty drop of 15.13%, it took four months for Bitcoin to rebound meaningfully.

The figure below shows the comparison of previous mining difficulty reductions and Bitcoin prices

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