每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0620-0626)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-06-27 02:23

This article is about 3619 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

High-quality in-depth analysis articles and a catch-up on the week's hot topics.

AI Summary

Expand

Key Insights: This week's selected articles delve into the plight of the yen's depreciation, the arbitrage-driven nature of Bitcoin ETFs, pressure on SpaceX's stock price, the transformation of Micron's semiconductor industry, and the essence of prediction market trading. They reveal the core contradictions and structural changes in the current macro, investment, and Web3 landscapes.
Key Elements:
1. The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma: raising rates could trigger a fiscal collapse, while not raising rates could worsen inflation. Intervention in the foreign exchange market has limited effectiveness, as the market doubts its ability to continue hiking rates.
2. Flows into Bitcoin ETFs are primarily driven by hidden arbitrage trades rather than long-term conviction. This trade has been unwinding for the past two years.
3. The decline in SpaceX's stock price is mainly attributed to a pullback in AI-related stocks and a depletion of retail buying power, meaning its space narrative still requires more verifiable milestones to justify capital expenditure.
4. Micron has signed 16 long-term strategic agreements covering 20% of its DRAM and one-third of its NAND shipments. The industry is shifting from "expand capacity first, find demand later" to "secure orders first, then expand capacity."
5. Arbitrage opportunities on the Polymarket prediction market are limited. Its core relies on information asymmetry and position diversification. Traders must be wary of textual traps and tail risks.
6. Ethereum has the potential to become a neutral infrastructure layer because major players refuse to build on each other's turf, leaving a neutral layer as the only viable option.

The information flow is moving too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be drowned out by hot topics. This "Weekly Editor's Pick" column retrieves valuable content from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and spark inspiration.

Macro Landscape

Yen Approaches 40-Year Low: BOJ Has Raised Rates to 1%, Why Can't It Stop the Slide?

This time, both the lines of defense (rate hikes and intervention) have failed simultaneously.

There is a consensus within the Bank of Japan that 1% is not enough. But the market doesn't believe it will dare to continue hiking. "Intervening in the exchange rate without changing domestic monetary policy is like stepping on the brakes while keeping your right foot firmly on the gas—the best-case scenario is the passengers get jostled a bit; the worst-case is the brake pads burn out." — Which is exactly the current situation.

The Bank of Japan is in a dilemma: If it doesn't raise rates, the yen continues to fall, worsening import-driven inflation; if it raises rates, government debt interest payments surge, making fiscal policy unsustainable.

Three variables will determine the future direction: whether the Fed will actually raise rates again, the actual outcome of US-Iran negotiations, and the BOJ's stance at its July meeting.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Rented Conviction: How Much Real Money Is in Bitcoin ETF Flows?

Looking week by week, ETF flows are primarily driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not conviction. Weekly Bitcoin price movements can barely explain the capital flows. ETF flows overestimate the "volatility" of conviction, not its "level." This trade is now exiting the market, and has been ongoing for two years.

SPCX Drops Below $150 IPO Price Pre-Market, But Don't Rush to Buy

The $20 billion debt financing was just the trigger for the decline. SpaceX's share price is also under pressure from the broader correction in global AI concept stocks. This, combined with the drying up of retail buying and the anticipated unlock of equity, has brought negative news forward.

Why Nvidia Can Issue Debt Without Issue, But SpaceX Crashes When It Does

The market is reassessing SpaceX's future capital expenditure pressure. In contrast, Nvidia's debt issuance during the same period met strong demand, offering a counter-example: the AI narrative has moved to revenue and profit validation, while SpaceX's space narrative still requires more incremental proof.

Web3 & AI

Super-Duper Spiral Explosion: Micron's Earnings Re-ignite Semiconductor Bull Run

Compared to the market's repeated discussions of HBM over the past year, a more noteworthy point in this earnings report is that the impact of AI has begun to spread across the entire memory supply chain. Looking at the business structure, nearly all of Micron's core businesses are growing synchronously.

Micron has now signed 16 long-term Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs), covering data center, consumer electronics, and automotive customers. Most of these agreements last for 5 years, with some automotive customer agreements lasting 3 years, covering periods extending to the end of 2030. These agreements already cover approximately 20% of DRAM shipments and about one-third of NAND shipments.

For decades, the industry's operational logic was always "expand capacity first, then wait for demand to absorb it." Now, Micron is gradually shifting to another model: secure orders first, then expand capacity.

The current capacity expansion resembles executing already-locked orders rather than the traditional cyclical expansion based on demand forecasting.

Institutions Made 100x Gains – Has Zhipu AI's Stock Topped Out?

Both institutions and employees are major winners in this wealth-creation cycle. The density of wealth creation ranks among the highest in the history of Chinese tech company IPOs.

Zhipu AI's most solid revenue comes from localized deployments. As long as government and enterprise AI budgets persist, Zhipu's revenue ceiling won't be too low. Its shareholder structure also backs this business. The second wave of sentiment was ignited by GLM-5.2 being rediscovered in the English-language tech community. Dissemination is crucial for Zhipu. Chinese investors see Zhipu AI as a Tsinghua-linked, state-backed, government-deployed, scarce AI stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The English-language tech community sees GLM-5.2 and asks a different question: Can it replace parts of Claude and GPT? Can it be deployed locally? Is it open-source? Is the cost low enough?

The most certain batch of lock-up expirations on July 8th involves about 25.68 million shares from cornerstone investors. It's not a trillion-dollar impact, but enough to alter the supply-demand dynamics of the chips.

Zhipu AI now needs to prove two things. First, can the developer buzz generated by GLM-5.2 translate into real revenue? Second, after July 8th, can the market absorb the newly available tradable shares, transitioning the stock price from being driven by "low floating supply" to being driven by "fundamentals"? If it achieves both, there is still room for Zhipu's high valuation story to continue.

The End of AI is Light: A 10x Stock Industry Chain Map Most People Missed

When the industry upgrades from 800G to 1.6T, and even towards 3.2T, the first to capture excess returns are often not the hottest star companies in the spotlight, but indispensable suppliers like Corning, Amphenol, and Ciena that all giants must work with, as well as upstream materials and testing segments.

Prediction Markets

From Signal Monitoring to Strategy Copying: How Does PPP Lower the Barrier to Polymarket Trading?

Exclusive Interview with PPP: The World Cup Ignites Prediction Markets – How to Find 'Replicable Smart Money'?

Whether You Understand Soccer or Not, Betting on a Draw is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?

As of June 22nd, out of the 40 World Cup group stage matches, 13 ended in draws. If you bet $1,000 on a draw for each match, with a total investment of $40,000, the total settlement for correct predictions would be approximately $81,914. After deducting all investments, the net profit would be about $41,914, a return rate of nearly 105%. Looking solely at trading returns, the most profitable script for the group stage wasn't necessarily big wins by top teams, but the recurring 1-1, 0-0, and 2-2 draws.

Coding's Betting Panel Made Money, But Polymarket Isn't Really a Great Place for 'Arbitrage'

Previously, on-chain arbitrage mostly had clear rules and price dislocations could be locked in, but Polymarket is different; it seriously tests your understanding of the logic behind shifting trends for a specific bet (this feels hard to express precisely in words). For example, regarding East Asian political and economic dynamics, Chinese users might have an information advantage, which is worth exploring, but it doesn't guarantee you'll win.

Ultimately, Polymarket doesn't settle according to "your understanding of reality," but according to market rules and designated data sources (UMA's manipulation issues are also not uncommon).

Furthermore, just because you think something is a sure thing in the Chinese context doesn't mean the definition is the same under English rules. Especially, the rule settings for each bet often contain textual traps.

So based on my actual experience, PM doesn't have that many arbitrage opportunities; it mainly relies on information asymmetry and position diversification. Even high-conviction bets can encounter black swan events. For Polymarket, don't treat it as a stable income tool, don't equate high win rate with good trades, don't ignore tail risks, and don't make pseudo-diversifications. Polymarket is actually an excellent training ground for judgment.

CeFi & DeFi

Wall Street's New Move: US Stock ETFs with Automatic Dividends Invested in Bitcoin Are Coming

Franklin Templeton has filed with the U.S. SEC to launch two new Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, featuring the automatic reinvestment of stock dividends into Bitcoin.

In the product design, Bitcoin acts as a long-term growth factor within the US stock market bubble. The 5% Bitcoin allocation also serves as insurance for the portfolio; if the AI bubble bursts and global capital flows back into safe-haven assets, Bitcoin could also see a rise.

Ethereum & Scaling

Ethereum is Retracing the Old Path of the Internet and Linux: Everyone Vies for Supremacy, Ultimately the Neutral Party Wins

Stripe wants everyone to use Tempo, JPMorgan wants to push its own chain, Circle wants to promote Arc – giants will never build on each other's turf. This is precisely Ethereum's opportunity: when everyone refuses to succumb to some company's infrastructure, the only choice left is a neutral layer controlled by no one.

Weekly Hot Topics Recap

Policy & Macro Markets

Japan and South Korea Stock Markets"Black Tuesday": KOSPI circuit breaker, Nikkei plummets, AI craze faces interim correction;

SK Hynix plans to raise over $29 billion via a Nasdaq listing;

SpaceX (SPCX.O) to join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026;

Views & Opinions

"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity reviews opportunities across multiple Asian tech stocks and NAV discounts, focusing on targets like Wistron; Missing the AI Supercycle could be costly; photonics, memory, and Neoclouds are worth watching;

Bernstein raises Micron Technology (MU.O) target price from $510 to $1,300;

Analysis: Apple's Price Hike sounds alarm on AI costs, market reassesses AI stock logic;

Analysis: Rumors of OpenAI IPO Delay impact market sentiment, US stock futures fall, tech and chip sectors lead declines;

Adam Back: Strategy won't go to zero, shorting STRC is baseless;

Analysis: ETH is severely oversold; the $1,070-$1,370 range could be a prime accumulation zone;